PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) shares climbed Thursday after the global food and beverage giant reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, fueled in part by favorable currency movements. However, despite the upbeat report and a slight upward revision to its full-year outlook, analysts and investors are eyeing deeper concerns that could cloud the company’s future growth trajectory.
For the second quarter of 2025, PepsiCo reported revenue of $22.4 billion, up 4.1% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.18, beating the Wall Street consensus estimate of $2.09. The company credited a combination of strong international demand for its snack brands and a weaker U.S. dollar, which boosted overseas sales when converted back to dollars.
“The continued strength of our international markets, coupled with productivity initiatives and pricing discipline, helped us deliver another quarter of solid performance,” said PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta in a statement.
The dollar’s recent softness—down nearly 3.4% against a basket of major currencies since April—played a significant role in lifting PepsiCo’s earnings, as more than 40% of its revenue comes from international operations.
Shares of PepsiCo rose 2.8% Thursday, closing at $184.67, marking the stock’s best single-day gain since March.
Full-Year Outlook Tweaked, but Not Significantly
PepsiCo modestly raised its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $8.15 to $8.25, up from the previous forecast of $8.10 to $8.20. The company also reaffirmed its revenue growth target of 4% to 6% on an organic basis.
Still, executives struck a cautious tone on consumer spending and rising input costs.
“We continue to see some softness in North American consumer purchasing behavior, particularly in value channels,” said CFO Hugh Johnston during Thursday’s earnings call. “Promotional sensitivity has returned, and the competitive landscape is intensifying.”
Growth Drivers: Snacks Outperform, Beverages Face Headwinds
PepsiCo’s Frito-Lay North America division posted another strong quarter, with 7% organic revenue growth, driven by demand for brands like Lay’s, Doritos, and Cheetos. Convenience foods remain a consistent winner for the company, especially amid evolving consumer snacking habits post-pandemic.
The beverage segment, however, was more mixed. While international beverage sales grew, North American volumes declined slightly, even as pricing remained firm. Sparkling water and energy drink brands like Bubly and Rockstar faced increasing competition from niche startups and premium-priced entrants.
Quaker Foods, often seen as a bellwether for shifting breakfast habits, delivered flat sales, with only modest gains in oatmeal and ready-to-eat cereals.
What the Market Is Watching: Inflation, Promotions, and Consumer Fatigue
PepsiCo, like many consumer staples companies, faces several emerging pressures:
- Inflation: While commodity prices such as corn, aluminum, and oil have come off their 2022–23 highs, they remain above historical averages. This continues to affect packaging, transportation, and ingredient costs.
- Consumer Fatigue: After two years of price hikes across its product lineup, consumers are increasingly shifting toward private-label brands or waiting for discounts. Retail scanner data from NielsenIQ shows that promotional volume in food and beverage is at its highest level since 2019.
- Geopolitical Exposure: With significant operations in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, PepsiCo remains vulnerable to geopolitical instability and regulatory challenges in emerging markets. The company exited its Russian operations in 2023 but still faces volatility in markets like Brazil and India.
Wall Street’s Take: Defensive but Priced for Perfection
Despite Thursday’s rally, some analysts remain cautious. PepsiCo is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.3, above the S&P 500 average and at a premium to key competitors like Coca-Cola (KO) and Mondelez (MDLZ).
“PepsiCo remains a defensive play with reliable cash flow and global scale,” said Sarah Dawson, senior consumer goods analyst at Morgan & Helms. “But with valuations stretched, the market will need to see consistent execution and improved margin trends to justify further upside.”
Of the 25 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it a “Buy,” 9 say “Hold,” and 2 recommend “Sell.” The average 12-month price target is $190, according to FactSet.
PepsiCo’s second-quarter results offered reassurance to investors, with sales growth buoyed by a weaker dollar and ongoing global demand for snacks. But behind the earnings beat lies a more complicated story: sluggish North American volumes, rising promotional pressures, and questions about pricing power.
As inflation moderates and consumers grow more cost-conscious, PepsiCo will need to prove that its brand strength and operational discipline can sustain growth in a shifting economic environment. The short-term looks stable—but the road ahead may not be as smooth.
