Category: Stock Market

Trading surge hits markets minutes before Trump’s Iran announcement
S&P 500 futures and crude oil contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at approximately 6:50 a.m. ET Monday—mere minutes before President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” toward resolving hostilities in the Middle East.
The timing has raised eyebrows across trading desks and prompted quiet scrutiny from market participants, even as the White House forcefully denies any impropriety.
According to Bloomberg data reviewed by multiple outlets, roughly 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts traded in a single minute around 6:50 a.m., representing a notional value of approximately $580 million.
At virtually the same instant, S&P 500 e-mini futures recorded an isolated burst of activity that stood out against an otherwise subdued pre-market session. Both oil and equity futures then moved dramatically once Trump’s post appeared at 7:05 a.m.

WTI crude plunged nearly 12% to around $83–$88 per barrel by the close, while Brent fell below $100 for the first time since early March. S&P 500 futures, by contrast, jumped more than 2.5% in the minutes following the announcement, reflecting investor relief that planned U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure had been postponed for five days.

The volume anomalies occurred during thin early-morning liquidity, when even modest order flow can create noticeable spikes. Still, veteran traders described the coordinated moves—aggressive selling or shorting of oil while buying equity futures—as unusually prescient.
“It’s hard to prove causality… but you have to wonder who would have been relatively aggressive at selling futures at that point, 15 minutes before Trump’s post,” one senior market strategist at a major U.S. broker told the Financial Times. Another hedge-fund portfolio manager with 25 years of experience called the pattern “really abnormal” for a quiet Monday morning with no scheduled data releases or Fed speakers.

The SEC and CME Group declined to comment. White House spokesperson Kush Desai rejected any suggestion of insider activity, stating: “The only focus of President Trump and Trump administration officials is doing what’s best for the American people… any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Markets React to De-Escalation — For Now
Trump’s Truth Social post described “productive conversations” with Iran and ordered the postponement of strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, subject to continued talks. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, quickly denied that any negotiations were underway, calling the claim “fake news” designed to manipulate oil and financial markets.

Oil prices, which had climbed aggressively in recent sessions on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, reversed sharply. WTI settled down roughly 10–12% at $83–$88 per barrel, while Brent dropped 11–13% to just under $100. European natural gas (TTF) also fell sharply.
The moves provided temporary relief to risk assets but highlighted how fragile sentiment remains. Morgan Stanley analysts warned that a sustained rise to $120 per barrel oil could shave 20–30 basis points off Asian GDP growth and force rate hikes in several emerging economies later this year.
A Pattern of Well-Timed Trades?
This is not the first instance of unusually prescient trading ahead of major Trump administration announcements in recent months. Hedge funds and energy consultants have privately noted several large block trades that appeared well-timed relative to official statements on Iran and Venezuela.
While such patterns are difficult to prove as improper without concrete evidence, they have generated “a level of frustration” among institutional investors, according to one portfolio manager.
Algorithmic and macro strategies can produce rapid cross-asset flows, especially in thin pre-market hours, but the scale and precision of Monday’s moves—selling oil and buying equities just before a de-escalation announcement—left many questioning whether non-public information circulated.
Political and Market Context
The episode unfolds against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension and domestic political pressure on the Trump administration’s aggressive posture toward Iran. While Trump framed the postponement as a sign of progress, critics argue the administration’s brinkmanship has already inflicted economic pain through elevated energy prices and market volatility.
For now, the market appears to be pricing in cautious optimism that a wider conflict can be avoided. Yet with Iran denying talks and both sides continuing information operations, the “fog of war” remains thick.
Investors would be wise to treat headline-driven moves with skepticism—especially when large, well-timed trades precede them.
March 23, 2026
Bond Market Flashes Warning Signal Not Seen Since Before 2008 Financial Crisis
Troubling developments unfolded in the U.S. bond market on Thursday that had some investors drawing comparisons with the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.
The current problems start with rising oil prices as a result of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which is raising the risk of stagflation and the prospect of a 2026 interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Brent crude the global oil benchmark, briefly blew past $119 a barrel on Thursday as attacks escalated on oil-and-gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures briefly crossed $100 a barrel.
But even as oil prices have spiked and stock prices come down, Treasurys, often seen as a haven during times of market unease, haven’t rallied on a continual basis. Instead, fears that the war in the Middle East could morph into a full-blown energy crisis pushed the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield above the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate target on Thursday. Bond yields move inversely with prices and rise during selloffs.
Thursday’s bond-market selloff caused the Treasury yield curve to exhibit what traders describe as a “bear-flattening” pattern. This actually began back in early February. Typically, the pattern emerges when bond traders are bracing for a difficult economic environment ahead.
The confluence of these three developments — oil above $100 a barrel, a 2-year yield above the fed funds rate, and a bear-steepening dynamic in the bond market — is making some investors nervous.
The last time all three things unfolded simultaneously was in the late spring of 2008, according to Bloomberg data. About four or five months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed, ushering in the most acute phase of the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 declined 38.5% that year. Widespread mortgage defaults also resulted in many Americans losing their homes.
The current environment includes both similarities and differences to that troubling time. Whereas the 2008 crisis was triggered by the bursting of a housing bubble and the subsequent collapse of the subprime mortgage market, investors are currently focused on the continued war with Iran, which began on Feb. 28, as well as signs of increasing stress in the private-credit industry.
Already, investors have been impacted by twin declines in stocks and bonds, which amount to a double-whammy for anybody holding their retirement savings in a 60-40 portfolio.
The backdrop now “does remind me of 2007-2008, when you did have cracks in the financial system,” said economist Derek Tang of Monetary Policy Analytics in Washington. The bad news now is “we are going into an energy-price shock and the Fed’s hands are tied because of inflation risks, which make it harder to cut rates.” This is all happening as the chance of a U.S. recession is growing, which is “not healthy” for risk assets. “That’s why people are on a knife’s edge right now.”
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Thursday, despite attempting to climb during the final hour of trading.
Earlier in the day, the 2-year yield, which is tied to expectations for the path of interest rates, jumped by as much as 21.8 basis points to an intraday high of almost 3.96% as the underlying government note aggressively sold off. The rate rose 8.8 basis points to 3.83% by 3 p.m. Eastern time, leaving it above the Fed’s interest-rate target of between 3.5% and 3.75%

The 2-year yield climbed at a faster pace than the benchmark 10-year yield which rose just 2.5 basis points to 4.28% —producing a bear-flattening pattern of the Treasury curve. The difference between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields shrank to around 45.1 basis points on Thursday from 51.5 basis points a day ago, and it is down from 74 basis points in early February.
The curve’s bear flattening is already hurting financial institutions, which rely on borrowing at short-term rates to lend at long-term rates, and retirement-age investors who held the 2-year Treasury note because of its cash-like qualities. As the note sells off, its yield rises so those older investors could have waited to buy at a lower price and higher yield. The bear-flattening’s significance to investors more broadly rests in the signals it sends about the likely upward path for interest rates and a negative economic outlook.
The 2-year rate is pricing in a scenario in which “the Fed will have to move into a rate-hiking cycle for the next few years,” said Ben Emons, founder of the New York-based investment management firm FedWatch Advisors, who added that he does not share this view.
However, a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is not necessarily in the cards because “we’re not in stagflation yet and the economy is not as reliant on oil prices as it was back then,” Emons said in a phone interview. “We have private-credit issues, but there’s a difference between that and the subprime crisis at the time. The banking system is far more resilient than before.”
Fed-funds futures traders currently see a 93.8% chance of no change in borrowing costs this year and a 6.2% likelihood of one rate hike by December. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell lent some credence to the idea of a hike by saying officials have deliberated on whether their next move should be to lift rates, though this is not currently the central bank’s base-case scenario.
March 19, 2026
Prediction Platforms Kalshi and Polymarket Seek Funding at Nearly $20 Billion Valuation
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are discussing potential fundraising rounds that could value each company at about $20 billion.
If completed at that level, the deals would roughly double their valuations from late 2025. The discussions remain early and may not lead to finalized investments, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts tied to real-world events, with categories including sports, politics, elections, and more. Traders buy and sell those contracts based on what they think will happen. Essentially, it allows users to monetize information on world events.
Kalshi already operates in the United States under approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation in December last year.

The company recently reached an annualized revenue run rate of about $1.5 billion, according to the WSJ report citing people familiar with the business.
Polymarket, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, was valued at $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange agreed to invest up to $2 billion in the platform.
None of the platforms immediately responded to requests for comments from CoinDesk.
Both platforms are leading in the sector, as prediction markets have become the latest hype for traders.
According to a Dune dashboard, open interest on Kalshi is hovering over $400 million, while on Polymarket it’s at $360 million. The third-largest market, Opinion, is at $36 million.
Similarly, the weekly notional volume (total underlying value of all prediction contracts traded) on Polymarket was $1.9 billion last week, and on Kalshi, $1.87 billion, according to Dune data. Opinion saw weekly volume of $150 million, down from over $1.2 billion ahead of its token launch.
The sector has become so popular that companies, including Coinbase and Robinhood, have entered the prediction market. In fact, Wall Street giants Nasdaq and Cboe recently said they are considering rolling out yes-or-no “binary bets” for traders on the direction of traditional markets, similar to prediction-market betting.
March 7, 2026
Weight-Loss Drug Price Wars Are Upending Big Pharma’s Business Model
The multibillion-dollar market for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, once a duopoly dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, is fracturing under intense pricing pressure, political intervention, and rising competition from compounded alternatives. What began as a revolutionary breakthrough in obesity treatment has evolved into a fierce price war that’s challenging the core business models of Big Pharma giants, raising questions about innovation, profitability, and access to life-changing medications.
Novo Nordisk, the Danish pioneer behind Ozempic and Wegovy, stunned investors this week by forecasting a 5% to 13% sales decline in 2026 – its first drop since 2017 – amid “unprecedented” U.S. price cuts and patent expirations in key markets like China and Brazil. The company’s shares plunged 17% on Wednesday, erasing nearly $50 billion in market value, as CEO Mike Doustdar acknowledged short-term “pain” from slashing prices to boost volumes and compete with Lilly’s surging Zepbound and Mounjaro.
In contrast, U.S. rival Eli Lilly delivered a bullish outlook, projecting 25% revenue growth to $80-83 billion in 2026, far exceeding Wall Street expectations. Lilly’s tirzepatide-based drugs raked in over $36 billion in 2025, outpacing Novo’s semaglutide portfolio and positioning Lilly as the clear leader in the GLP-1 race. “We’re seeing incredible demand, and our manufacturing investments are paying off,” Lilly CEO David Ricks told analysts, downplaying pricing headwinds as a temporary drag offset by volume gains.
As illustrated in the accompanying chart from LSEG Workspace, Novo’s revenues have boomed in double digits for years, driven by weight-loss drug sales, but the firm now anticipates a sharp reversal in 2026 due to these pressures.
The divergence highlights how pricing dynamics, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s “most favored nation” (MFN) policy and direct-to-consumer platforms like TrumpRx.gov, are reshaping the industry. Launched on February 5, TrumpRx connects Americans to discounted drugs from manufacturers like Novo, Lilly, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, offering prices as low as $149 for Wegovy’s starter dose – a fraction of the original $1,000 monthly list price. In exchange, companies received tariff relief and expedited approvals, but critics argue it sidesteps systemic issues, with limited impact for insured patients who may still pay less through coverage.

“TrumpRx could have some impact, but it’s far from revolutionary,” said Craig Garthwaite, director of health care at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. Experts like economist Öner Tulum warn that MFN relies on opaque global pricing, allowing companies to game the system by raising overseas prices or delaying launches.
Adding fuel to the fire, telehealth provider Hims & Hers Health launched a $49 compounded semaglutide pill on February 5 – just weeks after Novo’s Wegovy pill debut – prompting Novo to vow “legal and regulatory action” for alleged patent infringement and patient safety risks. Hims uses liposomal technology to aid absorption, bypassing Novo’s proprietary SNAC method acquired in a $1.8 billion deal. The FDA has warned against compounded GLP-1s, citing lack of safety evaluations, while the Department of Health and Human Services referred Hims to the Justice Department for investigation.
This isn’t the first clash: Novo previously partnered with Hims for Wegovy injections but ended ties acrimoniously last summer. Now, compounded knockoffs – estimated to serve 1.5 million Americans – threaten the duopoly’s pricing power. “This new offering could test how far compounders can skirt Big Pharma’s patents,” said Deb Autor, Hims’ chief policy officer.
The broader shift to cash-pay channels has made prices more sensitive, with injectables now starting at $149-$299 on company sites, down from $1,000. Analysts like Markus Manns at Union Investment fear a “no-win” price war: “There’s no assurance cuts will pay off.” Bernstein’s Courtney Breen noted Novo’s cuts are risky given its trailing position.
Lilly holds clinical edges – Zepbound achieves higher weight loss than Wegovy’s injection, while Novo’s pill edges Lilly’s upcoming orforglipron in trials. Lilly expects orforglipron approval in Q2 2026, potentially expanding the market further. “Pills could reshape GLP-1s like consumer products,” one analyst noted.
Yet the market is crowding: Pfizer and Amgen eye 2028 launches, while GSK focuses on obesity’s downstream effects like liver disease. Goldman Sachs raised Lilly’s target to $1,260, citing confidence in 25% growth despite pressures.
Critics argue Big Pharma’s model prioritizes shareholders over patients. Economist William Lazonick’s research shows U.S. pharma spent $747 billion on buybacks and dividends from 2012-2021, exceeding $660 billion on R&D. During the pandemic, 18 firms distributed $377.6 billion to shareholders – over 90% of profits – while claiming high prices fund innovation. “It’s a fallacy,” said UNAIDS’ Winnie Byanyima. “Profits go to Wall Street, not cures.”
A Senate HELP Committee report echoed this: In 2022, Bristol Myers Squibb spent $12.7 billion on buybacks, dividends, and exec pay versus $9.5 billion on R&D. Overall, 10 firms with drugs under Medicare negotiation spent $162 billion on shareholder handouts and marketing in 2023 – far outpacing $95.9 billion on R&D.
As shown in the second chart from LSEG, Novo’s market cap peaked in June 2024 before a sharp plunge, reflecting these pressures and Lilly’s ascent toward a trillion-dollar valuation.
What tames Big Pharma? Tulum suggests emulating the VA system’s deep discounts via centralized negotiation. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enabled Medicare negotiations for 10 drugs in 2026, including GLP-1s like Ozempic in 2027. Yet industry lobbies fiercely, with $83.2 million in trade dues funding opposition in 2023.
Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus Drugs offers transparent markups, but scalability is limited. Ultimately, reformers like Lazonick advocate banning buybacks and stock-based pay to redirect profits toward innovation.
As prices fall and competition rises, the GLP-1 war may force Big Pharma to adapt – or face a reckoning. For patients, lower costs could mean broader access, but sustained innovation requires reining in financialization.
February 7, 2026
SpaceX Pushes for Early Index Inclusion Ahead of Potential IPO
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is seeking an early boost for shares after the rocket-and-satellite business makes its stock market debut later this year.
Advisers for the company, which recently merged with xAI, have reached out to major index providers, including Nasdaq, to discuss how SpaceX and this year’s other hot startups might join key indexes sooner than normal, according to people familiar with the matter.
Companies typically must wait several months or a year after their public debut before gaining inclusion in a major index such as the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100. Inclusion unlocks access to retail and institutional capital from funds, particularly those mimicking the performance of indexes that have to hold the companies in the index.
The traditional waiting period is intended to give the companies time to demonstrate that they are stable and liquid enough to handle extensive buying from index funds.
SpaceX hopes to skirt traditional rules in an effort to bring liquidity to its shareholders sooner as part of its planned IPO. SpaceX advisers have sought index policy changes that would fast-track its entry into major indexes for the company and benefit other highly-valued private companies, the people said.
Last valued at $800 billion, SpaceX is targeting a valuation of more than $1 trillion, a listing that would become the largest-ever U.S. IPO.

Elon Musk. © Al Drago/Bloomberg
Investors and advisers to companies planning to go public this year are concerned not only about initial trading, but also that the standard six-month lockup period—which prevents early investors, executives and employees from selling their stock—might prompt significant selling that pressures shares. After Meta went public in 2012, shares sank when early investors unloaded all at once.
SpaceX is exploring ways to better balance supply and demand to avoid that outcome, some of the people said.
Advocates of index methodology changes have said that by allowing newly public companies earlier entry to key indexes, individual investors, who have famously missed out on the big gains in private markets, could secure earlier exposure via popular exchange-traded funds and index funds.
Earlier this week, the Nasdaq Stock Market shared proposals to update some of the Nasdaq 100 index methodology and asked for feedback from market participants.
Among the proposals is a potential “fast entry” process. Under this option, companies whose market capitalizations rank in the top 40 of the Nasdaq 100’s constituents could be added to the index after 15 trading days. Companies typically now must wait at least three months to be added to the index. At their current valuations, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic would all qualify.
The S&P Total Market Index and MSCI indexes have fast-track options, which some advisers to SpaceX are also exploring in an effort to ensure the IPO trades well, some of the people familiar with the matter said.
The one index where there is now no fast-entry option is also one of the most important: The S&P 500. To join the index, a company must be U.S.-based, profitable and have a market capitalization of at least $22.7 billion. Joining gives it access to a steadier index-fund investor base.
OpenAI is laying the groundwork for a fourth-quarter IPO as it races rival Anthropic to list shares publicly. OpenAI is aiming to raise $100 billion before the IPO at a valuation of more than $800 billion, while Anthropic is raising billions more at a valuation of $350 billion.
February 4, 2026
Nvidia’s Record Profits Alleviate Investor Concerns Amid AI Boom
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivers a keynote address at CES on Jan. 6, 2025. © Patrick T. Fallon / Getty Images
Stock Widget
Nvidia NVDA +4.25% ▲ reported record sales and strong guidance Wednesday, helping soothe jitters about an artificial intelligence bubble that have reverberated in markets for the last week.

Sales in the October quarter hit a record $57 billion as demand for the company’s advanced AI data center chips continued to surge, up 62% from the year-earlier quarter and exceeding consensus estimates from analysts polled by FactSet. The company increased its guidance for the current quarter, estimating that sales will reach $65 billion—analysts had predicted revenue of $62.1 billion for the quarter.
Shares in the world’s most-valuable publicly listed company rose almost 5% in premarket trading Thursday.
“We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI,” said Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang. “AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.”
Wednesday’s result will allow investors to breathe a sigh of relief. Each Nvidia quarterly earnings report has come to be seen as a financial Super Bowl of sorts as the AI boom has taken off. The company is regarded as a bellwether for both the health of the tech industry and the market as a whole.
This quarter, however, the stakes seemed higher. Rarely has an earnings report from a single company been greeted with such nervous anticipation.
In recent weeks, investors have sold off big tech names, worried that companies are spending far too much money on data centers, chips, and other infrastructure in the race to design and operate the world’s most powerful AI models, with little hope of recouping their investments in the near term.

Adding to the pressure is a flurry of recent AI deals structured using what critics have dubbed “circular” funding mechanisms—broadly referring to suppliers like Nvidia making large capital investments in the businesses of the customers who buy their products. Just a few months ago, investors viewed such deals with enthusiasm, pumping up shares for a variety of AI-related companies, but this week one such deal—between Nvidia, Microsoft and Anthropic—was greeted warily.
This week, 45% of global fund managers surveyed by Bank of America said that an AI stock-market bubble was one of the biggest risks facing the market.
A number of bearish moves by high-profile investors have also rattled tech markets. Last week, Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank Group sold its entire $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia to divert that money to other AI investments, while a hedge fund run by influential billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel unloaded its entire $100 million Nvidia stake in the third quarter.
Earlier this month, Michael Burry—who famously predicted the popping of the subprime mortgage securities bubble and was profiled in the Michael Lewis book “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine”—revealed in a securities filing that he was betting against the stocks of both Nvidia and AI-heavy defense analytics firm Palantir.
“The last few weeks, there have been some escalating cracks in the AI landscape,” said Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, an Nvidia shareholder. “Nvidia is the beneficiary of a lot of AI spending, and market forces are pushing back harder and harder on that spending.”
Quarterly net income was $31.9 billion, 65% higher than a year earlier. Sales of Nvidia’s Blackwell line of graphics processing units—its most powerful chips yet—were “off the charts,” Huang said. Revenue from Nvidia’s data center segment set a record at $51.2 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of $49 billion.
The potential for revenue increases may be limited going forward after the Trump administration announced earlier this month that it is not considering allowing a version of the Blackwell chip to be sold in China, a fast-growing AI market that represents tens of billions of dollars in potential sales.
Half of the company’s long-term opportunity will come from customers’ transition to accelerated computing and generative AI, Colette Kress, Nvidia’s chief financial officer, said on a call with investors. While sizable purchase orders for Nvidia’s Hopper Platform never materialized in the quarter due to geopolitical issues with China, the company remains committed to engaging with governments, she added.
In separate news, the Commerce Department approved the sale of up to 70,000 advanced artificial-intelligence chips to two companies based in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, a big win for the Middle Eastern nations as they seek to catch up in the AI race. The approvals are a reversal from earlier this year, when some administration officials rejected the idea of exporting directly to the state-backed companies over security concerns.

Terms of the deal will allow U.S. firms to sell up to 35,000 of Nvidia’s GB300 servers or their equivalents to both G42, a state-run AI firm based in Abu Dhabi, and Humain, a Saudi government-backed AI venture, government officials said. Nvidia competitor Advanced Micro Devices also has an agreement worth billions of dollars to work with Humain.
Nvidia’s stock price more than doubled between early April and late October, rising from the low $90s to more than $200 per share, but has lost ground in the last few weeks as bubble worries have grown. So far this year, it’s up about 30%.
November 20, 2025
Elon Musk Wins Shareholder Approval for Tesla’s Historic $1 Trillion Pay Package
Elon Musk speaking at the 2025 Tesla shareholder meeting. ·© Tesla.com
Stock Widget
Tesla TSLA -2.85% ▼ shareholders approved a record-setting pay package for Chief Executive Elon Musk, a plan designed to motivate the world’s richest man with as much as $1 trillion in additional stock.

Flanked by dancing humanoid robots on a stage bathed in pink and blue light at the electric-vehicle maker’s Austin, Texas, headquarters, Musk thanked the crowd of shareholders who supported the pay package with more than 75% of the votes cast.
“What we’re about to embark upon is not merely a new chapter of the future of Tesla but a whole new book,” Musk said. “I guess what I’m saying is hang onto your Tesla stock,” he added later.
The measure was hotly debated, with some large shareholders taking opposing sides. The voting was largely seen as a referendum on the company’s longtime leader and his vision to shift Tesla’s focus to humanoid robots and artificial intelligence.
Musk, who is also CEO of SpaceX and xAI, had threatened on social media to leave Tesla if the measure had been rejected. He is already Tesla’s biggest shareholder, with a roughly 15% stake.
Musk had said he wanted a big enough ownership stake in Tesla to be comfortable that the “robot army” he was developing didn’t fall into the wrong hands, but not so large that he couldn’t be fired if he went “crazy.”
On another proposal that would authorize the Tesla board to invest in Musk’s artificial-intelligence company, xAI, Tesla General Counsel Brandon Ehrhart said more shares had been voted for the proposal than against, but there were many abstentions. He said the board would consider its next steps.
Musk had publicly endorsed the idea as he seeks to catch up in the AI race.
The new pay package, which includes 12 chunks of stock, could give Musk control over as much as 25% of Tesla if he hits a series of milestones and expands the company’s market capitalization to $8.5 trillion over the next 10 years. Its market cap is now around $1.5 trillion.
Tesla’s board described the package as pay for performance, designed to motivate Musk to transform the company with new products such as autonomous vehicles, robotaxis and humanoid robots.
“Having worked with him now for 11 years, I can say what motivates him is doing things that others can’t do or haven’t been able to do,” Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm said in an interview last week.
Tesla struggled to keep Musk’s attention earlier this year as he spent time in Washington running the Department of Government Efficiency. Tesla’s vehicle sales fell more than 13% in the first half of the year. After Musk left Washington in May, he turned his focus to his startup xAI and the development of its chatbot Grok, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The new pay package was opposed by several proxy advisers and institutional investors including the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, various New York City retirement systems, and Norges Bank Investment Management, which is the sixth-largest institutional shareholder with a 1.2% stake.
Institutional Shareholder Services, one of the proxy advisers that urged passive funds to vote down the compensation package, said it had concerns about the magnitude and design of the “astronomical” stock award.
Charles Schwab, which has a Tesla stake of about 0.6%, said Tuesday it would vote in favor of the package. “We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests,” it said in a statement.
Huge stock awards tied to ambitious targets—sometimes called “moonshot” pay packages—are cast by proponents as a high-octane incentive for outstanding performance. Critics say they are often doubly flawed: overly expensive if targets prove easier than predicted; and counterproductive if the targets become unattainable and executives see little reason to stick around.
Musk’s new package is divided into 12 tranches. He could reach the first tranche if Tesla’s market cap grows to $2 trillion from around $1.5 trillion today, combined with an operational goal such as selling 11.5 million new vehicles, on top of the 8.5 million vehicles on the road.
More challenging milestones include selling one million robots to paying customers and maintaining an adjusted Ebitda of $400 billion. Last year, Tesla posted an adjusted Ebitda of $16 billion.
For each tranche he unlocks, Musk would receive equity equivalent to about 1% of Tesla’s current shares. Once he earns a tranche, he could vote those shares but wouldn’t be able to sell them until they vest, in either 7.5 years or 10 years.
Musk’s 2018 pay package, the most valuable on record before the 2025 package, is tied up in a dispute at the Delaware Supreme Court. Tesla is appealing a lower-court decision to rescind the 2018 pay package after a judge ruled in January 2024 that Tesla’s directors were beholden to Musk and the approval process for that package was tainted and lacked transparency.
Here is a breakdown of Musk’s current Tesla ownership:
November 7, 2025
Meta Stock Falls Even After Strong Revenue Report
Stock Widget
Meta Platforms Inc. delivered a resounding third-quarter earnings beat on Wednesday, with adjusted earnings per share of $7.25 topping analyst expectations of $6.69 and revenue surging to $51.24 billion against forecasts of $49.41 billion, as polled by LSEG. The results underscored the social media giant’s robust advertising engine and user engagement amid a resurgent digital ad market, yet Meta META -1.20% ▼ shares tumbled 1.2% in after-hours trading to $582.34, capping a volatile session that saw the stock dip 0.3% during regular hours. Investors, spooked by Meta’s forecast of “significant acceleration” in AI-related infrastructure costs next year—potentially ballooning to tens of billions—brushed aside the positives, signaling growing unease over the sustainability of Big Tech’s AI arms race.

The earnings, released after the bell on October 29, highlighted Meta’s operational resilience. Net income soared to $15.69 billion, or $6.03 per share, a 35% jump from $11.58 billion, or $4.39 per share, a year earlier—well ahead of FactSet’s consensus of $5.22. Revenue climbed 19% year-over-year, fueled by a 22% uptick in ad sales to $50.1 billion, as daily active users across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp swelled to 3.28 billion, up 6% from last year. CEO Mark Zuckerberg touted the quarter as a “strong foundation” for AI integrations, including enhanced Reels recommendations and Llama model advancements, which drove a 12% increase in time spent on the platforms.
Yet, the post-earnings glow faded swiftly. Meta’s guidance for Q4 projected revenue of $52.5 billion to $54 billion, in line with Wall Street’s $53.2 billion midpoint, but the real headwind was the capex outlook. The company flagged a “meaningful ramp” in 2026 AI infrastructure spending, on top of the $39 billion already earmarked for 2025, to fuel data centers and GPU acquisitions from Nvidia Corp. “We’re investing aggressively in AI to stay ahead,” Zuckerberg said on the earnings call, but analysts like Bank of America’s Justin Post worried aloud about the “long-term growth manifestation” of these outlays, especially as rivals like OpenAI pivot toward ads and social features, intensifying competition in Meta’s core turf.
The reaction rippled across global markets. In Frankfurt pre-market trading Thursday, Meta (META.O) shares slipped 2.6% to €530, mirroring a 5.1% drop in Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O) amid its own Azure cloud growth slowdown warning—dragging Nasdaq futures down over 1%. The Magnificent Seven cohort, already under scrutiny for AI hype, saw broader pressure: Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. reports later in the week loom large, with investors parsing for similar spending spikes. “Meta’s beat was textbook, but the AI capex fog is thick—it’s all about the denominator now,” said Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives, who maintains an Outperform rating but trimmed his price target to $650 from $675.
Meta’s Q3 performance aligns with a digital ad sector rebound, projected to grow 12% to $740 billion globally in 2025 per eMarketer, buoyed by election-year spending and e-commerce tailwinds. Reality Labs, Meta’s metaverse arm, narrowed losses to $4.2 billion from $5.1 billion, with Quest headset sales up 15%—a bright spot amid Zuckerberg’s pivot to AI glasses and wearables. Still, the stock’s 1.2% after-hours slide erased $25 billion in market cap, leaving Meta at $1.48 trillion—down 5% year-to-date versus the Nasdaq’s 23% gain.
Looking ahead, Wall Street eyes Meta’s AI monetization roadmap at next week’s investor day, where details on ad-targeting LLMs and enterprise tools could assuage fears. For now, the earnings saga encapsulates Big Tech’s paradox: explosive growth meets escalating costs in an AI gold rush that has minted trillion-dollar valuations but risks a valuation reset if returns lag. As Ives put it, “The party’s still on, but the bill just arrived.”
October 29, 2025
TSMC Stock Rises. Outlook Is Bright as the AI Chips Boom Outweighs Tariff Fears
Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) climbed Thursday after the world’s largest contract chipmaker reported record-breaking second-quarter profits, driven by booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips. Despite global currency headwinds and rising concerns over U.S. tariff policy, investors appear confident that AI tailwinds will continue to drive TSMC’s growth for the foreseeable future.
TSMC reported net income of $9.4 billion for Q2 2025, a new quarterly record and up 22% from a year earlier. Revenue came in at $20.2 billion, also beating analysts’ expectations, as the company continued to benefit from its dominant position as the manufacturer of choice for advanced chips powering everything from AI data centers to smartphones and autonomous vehicles.
The earnings beat was largely attributed to explosive demand for high-performance chips used in AI training and inference—particularly from major clients like Nvidia, AMD, and Apple.
“AI is no longer just a future growth theme—it’s here, and it’s driving volume at the cutting edge,” said CEO C.C. Wei during TSMC’s earnings call. “Our 3nm and 5nm technologies are in high demand, and we expect this momentum to accelerate into 2026.”
TSMC’s advanced technology nodes (5nm and below) now make up nearly 59% of total wafer revenue, a significant increase from 48% a year ago.
Following the earnings release, TSMC’s ADRs rose 3.6% to close at $168.42, marking their highest level since February. The company also issued a bullish outlook for Q3, projecting revenue between $21.0 billion and $21.8 billion, and a gross margin between 52.5% and 54%—stronger than Wall Street estimates.
Analysts hailed the results as another signal that TSMC remains central to the global semiconductor supply chain, especially as AI workloads expand across cloud, edge, and enterprise infrastructure.
“TSMC continues to deliver operational excellence while capitalizing on the AI supercycle,” said Chris Danvers, semiconductor analyst at EverBright Research. “Even with external risks, their pricing power and technological leadership remain unmatched.”
One shadow over the otherwise sunny outlook is the growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. Washington has been evaluating new tariffs on high-end chip imports as part of broader efforts to bolster domestic manufacturing and reduce dependency on Asia. While Taiwan has historically enjoyed favorable treatment, policy shifts could still impact TSMC’s U.S. customer base and logistics.
Still, company executives downplayed the immediate risk of trade restrictions, stating that long-term supply agreements and geographically diversified facilities—including TSMC’s new Arizona fab—provide a cushion against potential policy shocks.
“We’re monitoring the policy environment closely,” said CFO Wendell Huang, “but our global footprint positions us well for resilience and flexibility.”
TSMC acknowledged that a stronger Taiwan dollar and volatile foreign exchange rates trimmed its revenue slightly in USD terms, but not enough to derail its earnings beat. Operational efficiency and high-margin AI-related products helped protect its bottom line.
The company’s gross margin for Q2 was 53.9%, up from 51.5% last quarter, reinforcing investor confidence in its ability to maintain profitability even amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
TSMC reiterated its 2025 capital expenditure forecast of $32–$36 billion, underscoring its aggressive push to expand capacity at the leading edge. Much of this investment is tied to facilities in Taiwan, Japan, and the United States.
Notably, the company’s U.S.-based Arizona plant, expected to begin partial operations in late 2025, is seen as a strategic hedge against geopolitical risk and U.S. localization pressures.
TSMC’s stock has gained more than 47% year-to-date, outperforming the broader semiconductor index (SOX) and peer rivals such as Intel and Samsung. The strong Q2 print and guidance are expected to drive bullish revisions to analyst targets.
Currently, 29 of 33 analysts tracking the stock rate it a “Buy” or “Strong Buy,” according to Bloomberg data.
TSMC’s record-breaking second quarter confirms its unmatched position at the heart of the AI chip boom. While global economic pressures and geopolitical tensions continue to loom, the company’s cutting-edge technology, diversified client base, and bold capital investments are positioning it for long-term dominance.
As artificial intelligence continues to expand across industries and continents, TSMC stands not just as a beneficiary—but as the backbone of the next era of computing.
July 18, 2025
PepsiCo Sales Grow Again Thanks to Weak Dollar. But There’s More to Worry About
PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) shares climbed Thursday after the global food and beverage giant reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, fueled in part by favorable currency movements. However, despite the upbeat report and a slight upward revision to its full-year outlook, analysts and investors are eyeing deeper concerns that could cloud the company’s future growth trajectory.
For the second quarter of 2025, PepsiCo reported revenue of $22.4 billion, up 4.1% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.18, beating the Wall Street consensus estimate of $2.09. The company credited a combination of strong international demand for its snack brands and a weaker U.S. dollar, which boosted overseas sales when converted back to dollars.
“The continued strength of our international markets, coupled with productivity initiatives and pricing discipline, helped us deliver another quarter of solid performance,” said PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta in a statement.
The dollar’s recent softness—down nearly 3.4% against a basket of major currencies since April—played a significant role in lifting PepsiCo’s earnings, as more than 40% of its revenue comes from international operations.
Shares of PepsiCo rose 2.8% Thursday, closing at $184.67, marking the stock’s best single-day gain since March.
Full-Year Outlook Tweaked, but Not Significantly
PepsiCo modestly raised its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $8.15 to $8.25, up from the previous forecast of $8.10 to $8.20. The company also reaffirmed its revenue growth target of 4% to 6% on an organic basis.
Still, executives struck a cautious tone on consumer spending and rising input costs.
“We continue to see some softness in North American consumer purchasing behavior, particularly in value channels,” said CFO Hugh Johnston during Thursday’s earnings call. “Promotional sensitivity has returned, and the competitive landscape is intensifying.”
Growth Drivers: Snacks Outperform, Beverages Face Headwinds
PepsiCo’s Frito-Lay North America division posted another strong quarter, with 7% organic revenue growth, driven by demand for brands like Lay’s, Doritos, and Cheetos. Convenience foods remain a consistent winner for the company, especially amid evolving consumer snacking habits post-pandemic.
The beverage segment, however, was more mixed. While international beverage sales grew, North American volumes declined slightly, even as pricing remained firm. Sparkling water and energy drink brands like Bubly and Rockstar faced increasing competition from niche startups and premium-priced entrants.
Quaker Foods, often seen as a bellwether for shifting breakfast habits, delivered flat sales, with only modest gains in oatmeal and ready-to-eat cereals.
What the Market Is Watching: Inflation, Promotions, and Consumer Fatigue
PepsiCo, like many consumer staples companies, faces several emerging pressures:
- Inflation: While commodity prices such as corn, aluminum, and oil have come off their 2022–23 highs, they remain above historical averages. This continues to affect packaging, transportation, and ingredient costs.
- Consumer Fatigue: After two years of price hikes across its product lineup, consumers are increasingly shifting toward private-label brands or waiting for discounts. Retail scanner data from NielsenIQ shows that promotional volume in food and beverage is at its highest level since 2019.
- Geopolitical Exposure: With significant operations in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, PepsiCo remains vulnerable to geopolitical instability and regulatory challenges in emerging markets. The company exited its Russian operations in 2023 but still faces volatility in markets like Brazil and India.
Wall Street’s Take: Defensive but Priced for Perfection
Despite Thursday’s rally, some analysts remain cautious. PepsiCo is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.3, above the S&P 500 average and at a premium to key competitors like Coca-Cola (KO) and Mondelez (MDLZ).
“PepsiCo remains a defensive play with reliable cash flow and global scale,” said Sarah Dawson, senior consumer goods analyst at Morgan & Helms. “But with valuations stretched, the market will need to see consistent execution and improved margin trends to justify further upside.”
Of the 25 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it a “Buy,” 9 say “Hold,” and 2 recommend “Sell.” The average 12-month price target is $190, according to FactSet.
PepsiCo’s second-quarter results offered reassurance to investors, with sales growth buoyed by a weaker dollar and ongoing global demand for snacks. But behind the earnings beat lies a more complicated story: sluggish North American volumes, rising promotional pressures, and questions about pricing power.
As inflation moderates and consumers grow more cost-conscious, PepsiCo will need to prove that its brand strength and operational discipline can sustain growth in a shifting economic environment. The short-term looks stable—but the road ahead may not be as smooth.
July 18, 2025