The Sunshine State is once again capturing the attention—and investment—of New York’s wealthiest. In the wake of Zohran Mamdani’s surprise victory in New York City’s mayoral primary, real estate firms in Florida are reporting a 50% surge in inquiries from high-net-worth individuals and investors in the New York area.
Mamdani, a far-left assembly member from Queens and a prominent figure in New York’s progressive movement, ran a campaign centered on bold reforms such as a citywide rent freeze, taxpayer-funded childcare, and “fast and free” public buses. His populist agenda garnered 565,639 votes, signaling a significant political shift—but also sparking unease among the city’s wealthiest residents and business community.
“We’ve seen a clear uptick in demand across our portfolio since the primary,” said Daniel de la Vega, president of ONE Sotheby’s International Realty. “Website traffic from the New York area jumped 50% in just one week after the results came in. Our agents are fielding calls daily from buyers reassessing their long-term presence in the city.”
According to de la Vega, the increased activity is not limited to individuals—institutional investors, family offices, and entrepreneurs are among those exploring relocation options. Many are drawn by Florida’s well-known tax advantages, including no state income tax, coupled with perceptions of greater political and financial stability, public safety, and quality of life.
“These are not just second-home buyers. We’re seeing families and executives who want to move their operations and lives permanently,” de la Vega explained. “This is the beginning of what could become a second major wave of migration if Mamdani wins the general election.”
This shift mirrors a trend seen between 2018 and 2022, when over 125,000 New Yorkers moved to Florida, bringing with them nearly $14 billion in adjusted gross income. That migration reshaped the South Florida real estate market, creating what de la Vega described as a “major surge” in demand and price increases across luxury developments.
With high-end buyers showing renewed interest, Florida markets like Miami, Palm Beach, and Naples are already seeing more activity. Developers are preparing for an influx of capital should political uncertainty in New York continue.
While Florida real estate professionals brace for a potential boom, some New York agents are already seeing the first ripples of disruption.
Frances Katzen, a top agent at Douglas Elliman, said one of her long-time Manhattan clients recently chose to list a condo unit after a decade of ownership, citing rising operating costs, regulatory concerns, and the threat of increased taxation and rent control under a Mamdani-led administration.
“Some investors are concerned about what’s coming next,” Katzen acknowledged. “But many still believe in New York’s resilience.”
Indeed, Katzen remains bullish on the city’s long-term prospects. “New York is still one of the most dynamic, connected, and culturally vibrant cities in the world. No matter how the election plays out, this city has always adapted and bounced back.”
Mamdani’s win in the Democratic primary has not yet sealed his role as the city’s next mayor—but it has already introduced uncertainty into high-end real estate markets. Buyers with means are exploring options, and real estate professionals in both New York and Florida are preparing for potential market shifts.
De la Vega emphasized that while his firm is still watching how the general election unfolds, early indicators suggest that more New Yorkers are getting spooked by the direction of local policy. “We’re seeing the first wave of reaction—not panic, but preparation.”
If Mamdani secures the mayor’s office in November, it may trigger a fresh wave of ultra-wealthy migration—and with it, billions in investment capital leaving New York for the warmer, lower-tax haven of Florida.
