Tag: Iran

Oil price surge from Iran war threatens US growth and fuels inflation, economists warn
Soaring oil prices threaten to hit US growth, worsen inflation and keep the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates, top economists have warned ahead of the central bank’s first rate decision since the Iran war began.
US oil prices have jumped almost 50 per cent since the US and Israel struck Iran at the end of last month to about $95 a barrel, sending the costs of petrol and diesel at the pump surging higher.
The majority of academic economists polled by the Clark Center for Global Markets on behalf of the Financial Times said that, if oil prices were to remain at $100 a barrel, slightly above their current level, US growth will decline markedly.
Tehran has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows, in retaliation for the strikes on Iran. The disruption has caused a global supply crunch and is hitting US consumers and businesses despite the US’s role as a major energy producer.

“The key question is the extent and duration of a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz,” said James Hamilton, professor at University of California San Diego and an energy market expert. “If it goes on for a month or so, then this is a very big deal. And I think it would lead to a significant downward revision in the kind of growth we’re expecting for this year.”
Some 68 per cent of respondents anticipated a significant hit to GDP growth this year of at least 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points should oil stay at $100 for the rest of 2026, compared with a scenario with $75 oil. Just 2 per cent thought the economic impact of high oil prices would be positive, with the rest expecting little to no impact in either direction.
The US economy expanded at a 0.7 per cent annualised clip in the final quarter of 2025, from the previous quarter’s 4.4 per cent growth rate.

Panellists’ growth warnings contrast with White House officials, who say the conflict will do little harm to the prospects of the world’s largest economy.

“If [the war] were to be extended, it wouldn’t really disrupt the US economy very much at all,” said Kevin Hassett, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, on Tuesday.

“It would hurt consumers, and we’d have to think about — if that continued — what we’d have to do about that, but that’s really the last of our concerns right now because we’re very confident this thing is going ahead of schedule,” he said in an interview with CNBC.

The Trump administration’s war on Iran has exacerbated the challenges facing Fed officials, who are set to make their latest policy decision on Wednesday.

Even before the conflict began, the central bank was facing a delicate balancing act over whether to prioritise its fight against inflation or the latest signs of a slowdown in the US labour market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February while corporate America has laid off tens of thousands of workers this year.
At the same time, the jump in petrol and diesel costs — now at the highest levels in either of President Donald Trump’s White House terms — risks undermining the American public’s faith in the central bank’s commitment to stamp out inflation.

Headline personal consumption expenditures inflation (PCE) is 2.8 per cent and has been above the 2 per cent level the Fed targets since early 2021.

If oil stays near $100 for a prolonged period, it would lead to a rise in headline PCE inflation of at least 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, according to more than 80 per cent of those polled.

The 47 economists — surveyed quarterly by the Clark Center, part of the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business — also say the Fed will now need to wait longer before core PCE inflation falls to its 2 per cent goal. That category excludes food and energy prices.

Six in 10 participants in the survey now expect it will take until at least the first half of 2028 before price pressures return to 2 per cent — up from just under half in December.

Fed watchers widely expect the central bank to hold the federal funds target range at 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent on Wednesday. Markets are betting the oil price rise has pushed the next cut back until the spring of next year, after three quarter-point cuts in 2025.
Fed officials will also publish their latest economic and rate projections, known as “dot plots”, later on Wednesday.

The FT panel in the latest survey was less sure US benchmark borrowing costs would end the year lower than their current level. Roughly a third said they now expected no cuts for the duration of 2026, compared with 15 per cent in December.

“My prediction right now is that you’re not going to see much action [from the Fed] for a while,” said Stephen Cecchetti, a Brandeis University professor. “The uncertainty is so high that you have to wait. I would be waiting. But I would be unhappy that I had to start from here.”
March 20, 2026
Trump Ally Warns U.S. Economy Too Weak to Withstand Iran War Shock
Donald Trump’s one-time pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics has said the US economy is too weak to handle oil at $100 per barrel as he warned of rising consumer prices triggered by the war in Iran.
“I don’t think this is an economy that is going to be able to handle $100 a barrel for oil, it’s just not,” EJ Antoni told the Financial Times.
“The economy is weaker than we thought it was, and inflation is worse than we thought it was,” he added in a call on Wednesday, shortly before the Federal Reserve’s March rate-setting meeting.
“The lower energy prices that we saw in 2025 helped put downward pressure on prices throughout the economy. Now . . . we’re going to see higher energy prices have exactly the opposite effect and put upward pressure on prices throughout the economy.”
Trump picked Antoni, the conservative Heritage Foundation’s chief economist, to lead the US labour statistics agency in August, shortly after firing the former commissioner for a gloomy jobs report the president claimed was “rigged”.
He abruptly withdrew Antoni’s nomination a month later and ultimately settled on government economist Brett Matsumoto, whose confirmation is subject to Senate approval.
Antoni’s remarks on the health of the world’s largest economy come a day after the director of the US National Counterterrorism Center resigned in protest at the Iran war, marking the first significant defection from the Trump administration since the conflict began.
Republicans are meanwhile growing increasingly worried that high oil prices — Brent crude jumped 5 per cent to almost $110 a barrel on Wednesday — will dent their chances in the midterm elections. Petrol prices at the pump have surged to $3.84 a gallon from $2.92 a month ago, while diesel has exceeded $5 — exerting a heavy toll on US consumers and businesses.
Economic data collected before the US and Israel launched their attack on Iran has done little to ease those concerns.
US GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was last week revised to 0.7 per cent from an initial estimate of 1.4 per cent, while data released on Wednesday showed US wholesale prices rose at a faster clip than expected in February, even before the war began. The US economy last month shed 92,000 jobs, in a sharp slide that eroded most of January’s gains.
Antoni highlighted “a lack of job growth” in the US, some of which he attributed to last year’s cuts to the federal workforce, and renewed his attacks on the BLS, which he likened to “a random number generator” in a post on X last May.
“You need a complete and total top-down review of everything from the data collection to the data processing and even the data dissemination, because there have been a few issues with leaks,” he said. In January, Trump posted some of December’s US jobs figures hours before their official release.
Antoni refused to be drawn on how Trump told him he was no longer his pick to lead the BLS, saying he would “rather keep those conversations confidential”.
March 18, 2026
US-Israeli Attacks on Iran Kill Over 1,300 Civilians, Including Women and Children, Tehran Tells UN
United Nations in New York, Iran’s ambassador has laid bare the horrifying human cost of the ongoing US-Israeli war of aggression against the Islamic Republic — a conflict driven by the same neoconservative warmongers and Zionist hardliners who have long dictated Washington’s disastrous foreign policy.
At least 1,332 Iranian civilians, including women and children, have been slaughtered in relentless US-Israeli airstrikes, with thousands more wounded, Iran’s UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani told reporters Friday. The figures, verified by the Iranian Red Crescent Society, expose the true face of this illegal offensive: not “precision strikes” on military targets, as the aggressors cynically claim, but a deliberate campaign of terror against innocent civilians.
“Over 180 children across the country have been killed and more than 20 schools have been damaged,” Iravani stated, his voice steady but laced with outrage. Thirteen healthcare facilities have been hit, while civilian sports and recreational centers in Tehran and elsewhere were deliberately bombed on Thursday — killing more than 18 female athletes and injuring around 100 others. “Their intention is clear: to terrorize civilians, massacre innocent people, and cause maximum destruction and suffering.”

These are not collateral damage. These are war crimes and crimes against humanity, the ambassador declared, accusing the US and Israel of recognizing “no red line in committing their crimes.” Densely populated residential areas, critical infrastructure, and everyday civilian life have been targeted with impunity. Claims by Washington and Tel Aviv that they are hitting only military sites? Baseless propaganda, Iravani said flatly.
Fresh strikes pounded Tehran again overnight, sending the civilian death toll climbing to 1,332 even as Iran’s leadership vows never to surrender its sovereignty. This is the grim reality of Donald Trump’s return to power — a Republican administration once again dragging the world into endless Middle East bloodshed at the behest of its neoconservative advisers and the powerful pro-Israel lobby.
Trump, fresh off demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” has gone even further, insisting that any new Supreme Leader must be “acceptable” to him personally. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated on the very first day of this US-Israeli blitz. Trump told Reuters he must have a direct say in Iran’s internal succession — a breathtaking violation of the UN Charter’s principle of non-interference in sovereign states’ affairs.

Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Amir-Saeid Iravani attends a United Nations Security Council meeting, after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, at U.N. headquarters in New York City, U.S. February 28, 2026. REUTERS/Heather Khalifa
Iravani called it exactly what it is: “a clear violation of the principles of non-interference in the internal affairs of states enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations.” He added: “The selection of Iran’s leadership will take place strictly in accordance with our constitutional procedures and solely by the will of the Iranian people without any foreign interference.” Hours later, Iran’s president signaled the first hints of mediation from unnamed countries — a desperate diplomatic off-ramp after Trump’s reckless escalation.
Even US officials are quietly admitting the blood on their hands. Two American sources told Reuters that investigators believe US forces were likely responsible for a devastating strike on an Iranian girls’ school that killed scores of children last Saturday — though a final conclusion is still pending. This comes as the US Central Command boasts of striking over 3,000 targets in Iran and destroying 43 Iranian warships since the offensive began on February 28.
Yet the hypocrisy is staggering. While Iran insists its retaliatory strikes target only military objectives — and is even investigating stray hits on neighboring states that may have been caused by US interception systems — Washington and its Zionist allies paint themselves as the victims.
The same neocons who cheered the Iraq disaster, the Libya catastrophe, and endless Israeli occupations are now engineering regime change in Tehran, with full backing from AIPAC and its network of influential donors who have spent decades shaping US policy to prioritize Israeli interests above American ones.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister has already warned Europe: join this criminal enterprise and you become “legitimate targets.” The Strait of Hormuz remains open for now, but Tehran has made clear it will strike any US or Israeli vessels attempting passage.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered condolences to his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian and, according to US sources, is providing intelligence on American military positions — while the Kremlin reports a surge in demand for Russian energy as the war disrupts global oil flows.
The fallout is spreading. Qatar intercepted nine of ten Iranian drones targeting it Friday. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reported similar interceptions and debris. Kuwait has begun cutting oil production due to storage shortages. Missiles and drones have hit facilities in Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, and the UAE, killing civilians across the Gulf. Even Lebanon has seen over 120 dead in related Israeli strikes.
This is not defense. This is naked imperialism — Zionist expansionism backed by Republican hawks and the same AIPAC-driven machinery that has funneled billions in unconditional US aid to Israel while American infrastructure crumbles at home. Trump’s neoconservative cabal never learned the lessons of Afghanistan or Iraq; they simply recycled the script with bigger bombs and bolder lies.
Iran, for its part, has made its position crystal clear. “Iran does not seek war,” Iravani stressed, “but Iran will never surrender its sovereignty and will take all necessary measures to defend our people, our territory, and our independence.” Its response, he said, is “lawful, necessary, and proportionate” under Article 51 of the UN Charter — targeting only the military machinery of the aggressors.
Iravani called on all UN member states to condemn this aggression and the war crimes it entails. “The Security Council must act now, firmly, clearly, and without delay,” he urged — before the body count climbs higher and the region descends into full-scale catastrophe.
As fresh explosions echo through Tehran’s streets and the civilian toll surpasses 1,300, one thing is undeniable: this US-Israeli offensive is not about security. It is about dominance, regime change, and the same failed ideology that has cost millions of lives across the Middle East.
March 7, 2026
Man Convicted in Assassination Plot Targeting President Trump
NEW YORK — The allegation sounded like the stuff of spy movies: A Pakistani businessman trying to hire hit men, even handing them $5,000 in cash, to kill a U.S. politician on behalf of Iran ‘s powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.
It was true, and potential targets of the 2024 scheme included now-President Donald Trump, then-President Joe Biden and former presidential candidate and ex-U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the man told jurors at his attempted terrorism trial in New York on Wednesday. But he insisted his actions were driven by fear for loved ones in Iran, and he figured he’d be apprehended before anything came of the scheme.
“My family was under threat, and I had to do this,” the defendant, Asif Merchant, testified through an Urdu interpreter. “I was not wanting to do this so willingly.”
Merchant said he had anticipated getting arrested before anyone was killed, intended to cooperate with the U.S. government and had hoped that would help him get a green card.

This image provided by the Justice Department, contained in the complaint supporting the arrest warrant, shows Asif Merchant. (Justice Department via AP, File)
U.S. authorities were, indeed, on to him – the supposed hit men he paid were actually undercover FBI agents – and he was arrested on July 12, 2024, a day before an unrelated attempt on Trump’s life in Butler, Pennsylvania. Merchant did sit for voluntary FBI interviews, but he ultimately ended up with a trial, not a cooperation deal.
“You traveled to the United States for the purpose of hiring Mafia members to kill a politician, correct?” Assistant U.S. Attorney Nina Gupta asked during her turn questioning Merchant Wednesday in a Brooklyn federal court.
“That’s right,” Merchant replied, his demeanor as matter-of-fact as his testimony was unusual.
The trial is unfolding amid the less than week-old Iran war, which killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a strike that Trump summed up as “I got him before he got me.” Jurors are instructed to ignore news pertaining to the case.
The Iranian government has denied plotting to kill Trump or other U.S. officials.
Merchant, 47, had a roughly 20-year banking career in Pakistan before getting involved in an array of businesses: clothing, car sales, banana exports, insulation imports. He openly has two families, one in Pakistan and the other in Iran – where, he said, he was introduced around the end of 2022 to a Revolutionary Guard intelligence operative. They initially spoke about getting involved in a hawala, an informal money transfer system, Merchant said.

Merchant testified that his periodic visits to the U.S. for his garment business piqued the interest of his Revolutionary Guard contact, who trained him on countersurveillance techniques.
The U.S. deems the Revolutionary Guard a “foreign terrorist organization.” Formally called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the force has been prominent in Iran under Khamenei.
Merchant said the handler told him to seek U.S. residents interested in working for Iran. Then came another assignment: Look for a criminal to arrange protests, steal things, do some money laundering, “and maybe have somebody murdered,” Merchant recalled.
“He did not tell me exactly who it is, but he told me – he named three people: Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Nikki Haley,” he added.
After U.S. immigration agents pulled Merchant aside at the Houston airport in April 2024, searched his possessions and asked about his travels to Iran, he concluded that he was under surveillance. But still he researched Trump rally locations, sketched out a plot for a shooting at a political rally, lined up the supposed hit men and scrambled together $5,000 from a cousin to pay them a “token of appreciation.”
He even reported back to his Revolutionary Guard contact, sending observations – fake, Merchant said – tucked into a book that he shipped to Iran through a series of intermediaries.
Merchant said he “had no other option” than to play along because the handler had indicated that he knew who Merchant’s Iranian relatives were and where they lived.
In a court filing this week, prosecutors noted that Merchant didn’t seek out law enforcement to help with his purported predicament before he was arrested. He testified that he couldn’t turn to authorities because his handler had people watching him.
Prosecutors also said that in his FBI interviews, Merchant “neglected to mention any facts that could have supported” an argument that he acted under duress.
Merchant told jurors Wednesday that he didn’t think agents would believe his story, because their questions suggested “they think that I’m some type of super-spy.”
“And are you a super-spy?” defense lawyer Avraham Moskowitz asked.
“No,” Merchant said. “Absolutely not.”
March 6, 2026
United States and Israel Target Iranian Leadership in Coordinated Military Action
The United States and Israel carried out military strikes on Iran on Saturday, targeting its top leaders and plunging the Middle East into a conflict that President Donald Trump said would end a security threat to the U.S. and give Iranians a chance to topple their rulers.
Tehran called the attacks unprovoked and illegal, and responded by launching missiles at Israel and at several Gulf Arab allies of the United States that host American bases.
It promised a stronger response to come, with a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander, Ebrahim Jabbari, saying it had so far used only “scrap missiles” and would soon unveil unforeseen weapons, state television reported.
Iran’s Defence Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammed Pakpour were killed in Israeli attacks, three sources familiar with the matter said.
Explosions rang out in nearby oil-producing Gulf Arab countries, which said they had intercepted missiles after Tehran warned it would strike the region if it was attacked.
The first wave of strikes in what the Pentagon named “OPERATION EPIC FURY” mainly targeted Iranian officials, a source familiar with the matter said, two days after indirect talks mediated by Oman failed to produce a breakthrough on Iran’s nuclear programme.
An Israeli official said Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian were both targeted but the result of the strikes was not clear. A source with knowledge of the matter had earlier told Reuters that Khamenei was not in Tehran and had been transferred to a secure location.
An Iranian source close to the establishment said several senior commanders in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and political officials had been killed. Forty people were killed in an Israeli airstrike on a school, state media said. Reuters could not independently confirm the reports.
Trump Says ‘Bombs will be dropping everywhere’
In a video message published on social media, Trump cited Washington’s decades-old dispute with Iran, including the seizure of the 1979 U.S. embassy in Tehran, when students held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days, as well as a range of other attacks the U.S. has blamed on Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution brought the clerics to power.
Trump, who had deployed vast U.S. military firepower in the region saying he hoped to force Iranian concessions in nuclear talks, said the “massive” operation was intended to ensure Tehran does not obtain a nuclear weapon and was aimed at “eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime”.
He urged Iranians to stay sheltered because “bombs will be dropping everywhere”. But he added: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the joint U.S.-Israeli attack “will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands” and “remove the yoke of tyranny”. Defence Minister Israel Katz called it a pre-emptive strike to remove threats to Israel.
Iran’s clerical leaders were already in a difficult position after mass anti-government demonstrations in January, which led to a crackdown in which thousands of people were killed, the worst domestic unrest since the era of the 1979 revolution.
Protesters had again taken to the streets in recent days in remembrance of those killed the previous month.
Israeli military operations have killed some of Iran’s senior military officials and severely weakened several of Tehran’s once-feared proxy forces across the Middle East.
After Israel pounded Iran in a 12-day air war last June joined by the United States, the U.S. and Israel had warned that they would strike again if Iran pressed ahead with its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. The threats were backed up in recent weeks by a U.S. military buildup in the region.
An Israeli defence official said the operation had been planned for months in coordination with Washington, and that the launch date was decided weeks ago.
Israel’s military said its Air Force had identified Iranian operatives in western Iran loading a missile unit and preparing to launch an attack. The Air Force struck the operatives and the launcher, preventing the attack, it said.
U.S. air defences intercepted and shot down a drone over a U.S. military base near Erbil in Iraq.
The renewed confrontation dimmed hopes of a diplomatic solution to Tehran’s nuclear dispute with the West. Oil markets have been closely watching the standoff between Washington and Tehran to try and determine if supplies will be impacted.
“If we don’t see signs of de-escalation over the weekend, risk premiums could still drive Brent up” by $10–$20 per barrel when markets reopen on Monday, said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.
Iran, the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumps about 4.5% of global oil supplies, and a far larger share is shipped past its coast through the strait leading out of the Gulf.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said all U.S. bases and interests in the region were within Iran’s reach and that Iran’s retaliation would continue until “the enemy is decisively defeated”. Iraq’s Iran-aligned armed group Kataib Hezbollah said it would soon attack U.S. bases in the region.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to discuss the on countries in the region and expressed solidarity, the UAE state news agency said.
Loud booms sounded in Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates, an oil producer and close U.S. ally, and several blasts were heard in the business capital Dubai.
Bahrain said the service centre of the U.S. Fifth Fleet – base for American naval forces in the region – had been subjected to a missile attack. Video footage showed a thick grey plume of smoke rising from near the island state’s coastline as sirens wailed.
Qatar said it had downed all missiles targeting the country and that it had a right to respond. Kuwait confirmed a missile attack on a U.S. military base there.
An explosion was heard in Iran’s southeastern port city of Chabahar, Iranian state media reported.
Israel’s military did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report of a strike at a primary school for girls in southern Iran, where Iranian state media reported 40 deaths.
In Israel, police said all holy sites were closed to visitors under national emergency guidelines after authorities announced several barrages of missiles were launched from Iran.
Global airlines cancelled flights across the Middle East and the attacks raised the prospect of oil prices rising. Some oil majors and trading houses suspended crude oil and fuel shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, four trading sources said.
February 28, 2026
Israeli Official Says U.S. Was Informed and Aligned on Iran Operation
Feb 28 (Reuters) – The Israeli operation against Iran on Saturday was coordinated with the U.S., an Israeli defence official told Reuters.
The operation was planned for months and the launch date was decided weeks ago, the official added.
February 28, 2026
Iran Rejects U.S. Pressure, Vows to Continue Uranium Enrichment
Washington, D.C. – In a defiant stand that echoes the spirit of sovereignty and resistance against foreign meddling, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared on Sunday that Tehran will never relinquish its right to enrich uranium, even in the face of potential war or escalating U.S. military posturing in the Middle East. Speaking at a diplomatic summit in Tehran, Araghchi framed Iran’s unyielding position as the true source of its power: the ability to say “no” to imperial demands from global superpowers. “They fear our atomic bomb, while we are not pursuing an atomic bomb,” he proclaimed. “Our atomic bomb is the power to say no to the great powers.”
This hardline rhetoric comes mere days after indirect talks in Oman between Iranian officials and U.S. envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, aimed at reviving negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. From an America First perspective, these developments highlight the pitfalls of endless foreign entanglements—draining American resources and lives in pursuit of neoconservative fantasies about remaking the Middle East. Why should hardworking Americans foot the bill for another quagmire, especially when Israel’s aggressive lobbying pulls us deeper into conflicts that serve Tel Aviv’s interests over our own?
Araghchi’s comments underscore the deep mistrust simmering beneath the surface of these fragile discussions. “Iran has paid a very heavy price for its peaceful nuclear program and for uranium enrichment,” he told the forum, as reported by AFP. “Why do we insist so much on enrichment and refuse to give it up even if a war is imposed on us? Because no one has the right to dictate our behavior.” He dismissed the U.S. military buildup—including the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, along with additional warships and fighter jets to the Arabian Sea—as empty threats. “Their military deployment in the region does not scare us,” Araghchi asserted, directly rebuffing the neocons’ saber-rattling that has long prioritized Israeli security over American prosperity.
The Oman talks, mediated by regional allies, marked the first direct U.S.-Iran engagement in years, following a bloody 12-day war last June between Iran and Israel, during which President Donald Trump authorized strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who reportedly secured Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s approval to pursue dialogue, described the meetings as “a step forward” in a post on X. “Dialogue has always been our strategy for peaceful resolution,” he wrote. “The Iranian nation has always responded to respect with respect, but it does not tolerate the language of force.”
Witkoff and Kushner board US aircraft carrier off Iran’s coast after nuclear talks
Witkoff and Kushner board US aircraft carrier off Iran’s coast after nuclear talks
Witkoff and Kushner board US aircraft carrier off Iran’s coast after nuclear talks
Witkoff and Kushner board US aircraft carrier off Iran’s coast after nuclear talks
Witkoff and Kushner board US aircraft carrier off Iran’s coast after nuclear talks

Trump, for his part, offered a characteristically optimistic spin: “Iran looks like they want to make a deal very badly—as they should.” Yet, Araghchi’s pointed remarks reveal the chasm: He accused Washington of hypocrisy, noting that during previous negotiations last year, the U.S. “attacked us in the midst of negotiations.” “If you take a step back in negotiations, it is not clear up to where it will go,” he warned, evoking the specter of renewed conflict. In a stark admission of Iran’s strategic calculus, Araghchi hinted at retaliation against U.S. bases in the region if attacked, acknowledging Tehran’s limitations in striking the American mainland but emphasizing its regional reach.
This exchange plays out against a backdrop of nationwide protests in Iran, where economic hardships and political repression have fueled unrest, resulting in thousands killed and tens of thousands detained. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week insisted that any deal must address not only Iran’s nuclear ambitions but also its ballistic missiles, support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, and domestic human rights abuses. But from an anti-neocon lens, such expansive demands smack of the same interventionist hubris that led to disastrous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan—wars that enriched defense contractors and Israeli hawks while bankrupting America morally and financially.
Israel’s role in this drama is particularly insidious. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet Trump in Washington this Wednesday, with his office confirming that Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, and proxy support will top the agenda. Netanyahu demands a complete dismantling of Iran’s capabilities—demands that Tehran has flatly rejected as an infringement on its sovereignty. Anti-Israel critics argue this is classic Zionist overreach: Israel, armed with its own undeclared nuclear arsenal, hypocritically pushes the U.S. to confront Iran, risking American lives and treasure to shield Tel Aviv from the consequences of its own aggressive policies. Why should America First patriots tolerate this? Our focus should be on securing borders, rebuilding infrastructure, and avoiding the neocons’ endless crusade against perceived threats in distant lands.
The nuclear issue itself remains contentious. Iran insists its program is purely peaceful, backed by a fatwa from Khamenei forbidding atomic weapons. Yet, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Western intelligence claim Tehran pursued a military program until 2003 and has enriched uranium to 60% purity—a level just shy of weapons-grade 90%, making it the only non-nuclear-armed state to do so. Before last year’s war, Iran’s stockpile raised alarms, with officials occasionally floating the idea of weaponization as a deterrent. Araghchi rejected these accusations as pretexts for bullying: “The continuation of sanctions and military actions raises doubts about the readiness of the other side for genuine negotiations.”
The U.S. military presence, including Adm. Brad Cooper’s visit to Oman during the talks and his subsequent tour of the USS Abraham Lincoln with Witkoff and Kushner, was clearly meant as a show of force. But Araghchi’s defiance signals that such displays won’t cow Iran into submission. Gulf Arab states, haunted by the 2025 Israel-Iran war, privately fear escalation could engulf the region anew.
As talks hang in the balance— with no clear timeline for a second round—America First advocates urge Trump to prioritize deal-making that benefits U.S. workers, not Israeli expansionism or neocon warmongering. A fair agreement could lift sanctions, stabilize energy markets, and free America from the Middle East’s quicksand. But if neocons like Rubio and Netanyahu derail it with maximalist demands, we’ll be stuck in another cycle of pointless confrontation.
February 8, 2026
Satellite Images Reveal U.S. Military Deployments Near Iran
Satellite imagery captured on Jan. 25 shows at least a dozen F-15E attack planes at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. (Planet Labs)
In the shimmering haze of the Arabian Sea, where oil tankers carve silent paths through contested waters, a new specter looms: the unmistakable silhouette of American military might. Fresh satellite imagery, obtained from commercial providers like Planet Labs and corroborated by open-source tracking data, paints a chilling picture of Washington’s accelerating deployments encircling Iran. Dozens of fighter jets—F-15Es, A-10 Thunderbolts, and stealthy F-35s—now crowd airbases in Jordan, Qatar, and the UAE. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, flanked by guided-missile destroyers bristling with Tomahawks, prowls the North Arabian Sea. At least a dozen warships, including electronic warfare vessels like EA-18G Growlers, have converged on the region since mid-January, transforming the Middle East into a powder keg primed for ignition.
This buildup, far exceeding the targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites last summer, reeks of neoconservative adventurism—a reckless echo of the Iraq War playbook that could drag the U.S. into another endless quagmire. Analysts warn it’s not just about deterrence; it’s a stage set for “expansive operations,” potentially aimed at regime change in Tehran. Yet, as President Donald Trump rattles sabers on Truth Social, threatening “speed and violence” akin to his Venezuelan escapade, the real beneficiaries appear to be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s faltering coalition and the hawkish lobbies in Washington. Anti-war voices decry this as a manufactured crisis, one that prioritizes Zionist agendas over global stability, risking a regional inferno that could engulf U.S. allies and embolden adversaries like China and Russia.
Our investigation—drawing on exclusive imagery from MizarVision, flight-tracking platforms like ADS-B Exchange, and declassified U.S. defense briefings—uncovers a deployment surge that defies Trump’s “America First” rhetoric. With Iran’s Supreme Leader issuing dire warnings of “immediate, comprehensive” retaliation, and Chinese experts mocking Washington’s inability to replicate its “Venezuela model,” the question isn’t if escalation happens—but who pays the price for this anti-diplomatic folly.

The Satellite Snapshot: A Ring of Steel Tightens
The evidence is irrefutable, captured in high-resolution pixels from above. Planet Labs imagery dated January 25 reveals a dramatic uptick at Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base—the Pentagon’s largest Middle East outpost. KC-135 refueling tankers, once sparse, now dominate the aprons, their numbers doubled since mid-January. Nearby, newly installed Patriot missile batteries—identified by their distinctive radar arrays—stand sentinel, a defensive bulwark against Iran’s vaunted ballistic arsenal. “This isn’t routine rotation,” Dana Stroul, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, told The Washington Post. “They’re setting the theater for expanded offensive options.”
Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base tells a similar tale. January 25 shots show over a dozen F-15E Strike Eagles—veterans of last summer’s nuclear raids—parked alongside nine A-10 Thunderbolts, ground-attack workhorses for close air support. MQ-9 Reaper drones and HC-130J rescue planes have joined them, hinting at preparations for contested extractions deep in enemy territory. “Search-and-rescue assets like these scream high-risk ops,” Gregory Brew, a senior Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, noted in the Post. “If you’re planning to penetrate Iranian airspace, you need retrieval plans for downed pilots.”
Naval forces amplify the threat. The Abraham Lincoln, redirected from the South China Sea in late January, now anchors the North Arabian Sea with three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers—USS McFaul, USS Mitscher, and others—each laden with air defenses and cruise missiles. Satellite views from January 26 confirm at least eight more warships in the Gulf, including the USS Delbert D. Black in the Red Sea and USS Bulkeley in the eastern Mediterranean. “This armada isn’t for show,” Brew added. “Growlers jam radars; F-35s punch holes in defenses. It’s geared for interior strikes, not just coastal deterrence.”

Satellite imagery captured on Jan. 25 shows at least a dozen F-15E fighter jets and nine A-10C Thunderbolt II, according to Sean O’Connor an imagery analyst with Janes who reviewed the imagery at The Post’s request.
Chinese outlet Global Times, citing MizarVision imagery, echoes the alarm: January 26 shots of Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem base show fresh Patriot deployments, while Bahrain’s Naval Support Activity hosts littoral combat ships. “US forces have stepped up movements… for both attack and defense,” the report states, warning of a “rising probability” of limited strikes. ABC News, analyzing Planet Labs data from January 17 to February 2, highlights Patriot interceptors at Al Udeid—absent weeks prior—bolstering defenses against Iran’s Khorramshahr-4 missiles.

Satellite imagery captured on Feb.2 shows at least one MQ-9 Reaper drone and several multiple-utility helicopters.
Iran counters asymmetrically: Flight data shows drones swarming the Strait of Hormuz, with the Shahid Bagheri drone carrier spotted January 26. “Unsafe behavior risks escalation,” CENTCOM warned Friday.

An Iranian drone carrier loiters in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. (Planet Labs)
Neocon Fingerprints: From Iraq to Iran, the Same Playbook
This surge isn’t born in a vacuum—it’s the toxic fruit of neoconservative ideology, long criticized for fabricating pretexts for endless wars. Trump’s January 28 Truth Social post—”Abraham Lincoln heading to Iran… far worse than last summer”—evokes the 2003 WMD lies that birthed the Iraq quagmire, costing trillions and millions of lives. Critics see Netanyahu’s shadow: Facing corruption trials and coalition fractures, the Israeli PM has lobbied Washington for strikes to divert domestic ire from Gaza’s fallout.
“Neocons like Bolton and Pompeo—Trump’s ghosts—push this as ‘regime change lite,’” says Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute, an anti-war think tank. “But it’s a trap: Venezuela’s Maduro raid was a farce; Iran’s hardened bunkers demand boots on ground Trump won’t commit.” Chinese expert Sun Degang, via Global Times: “Difficult to replicate ‘Venezuela model’—Iran’s structure isn’t one-man rule. Strikes weaken, but don’t topple.”
Liu Zhongmin of Shanghai International Studies University: “U.S. retrenchment strategy contradicts entanglement. No ground forces? No regime change.” Anti-war activists decry the hypocrisy: While Trump sanctions Rosneft and Lukoil to squeeze Moscow’s oil lifeline, he’s inflating a Gulf bubble that benefits Israeli hawks. “Netanyahu’s lifeline—U.S. muscle—prolongs Palestinian suffering,” Parsi adds. “This buildup isn’t deterrence; it’s provocation.”
Iran’s retort: Ali Shamkhani, Khamenei’s advisor, vowed January 28: “Any action… beginning of war. Response immediate, targeting aggressor, Tel Aviv, supporters.” FM Abbas Araghchi: “Ready for negotiations… or war.” Protests in Tehran—6,000 dead in crackdowns, per rights groups—fuel regime paranoia, but strikes risk unifying Iranians against “Zionist-American aggression.”
The Human Cost: Echoes of Past Fiascos
Last summer’s nuclear hits—B-2 bombers from Diego Garcia—crippled Iran’s program but sparked 12-day clashes with Israel. Now, imagery shows no B-2s at Diego (January 17-26: Just C-17s), but experts like Zhang Junshe warn: “Strategic bombers signal intent. Absent them, it’s bluff—or prelude.” The War Zone: “No mass tactical airpower influx—suggests limited op, unless Israel joins.”
Yet escalation’s shadow: Iran’s missiles—intact post-2025—target U.S. bases within 700km. Fabian Hinz of IISS: “Arsenal designed for Israel/U.S. sites—still potent.” Anti-war lens: This risks “total eradication of Western civilization,” per Parsi—burning flags in “pro-Palestine” protests, not Israeli streets.
Trump’s “armada” rhetoric—likening to Venezuela’s failed raid—ignores geography: Iran’s resilience, 4,000km from Diego, defies quick wins. “Neocons dream of decapitation,” says Liu. “But chaos ensues—uncontrolled outcome Washington dreads.”
A Call for Sanity: Diplomacy Over Drums of War
As satellites unmask this buildup, the anti-war imperative screams: Reject neocon siren songs propping Netanyahu’s regime. Trump’s sanctions—effective against Maduro—falter against Iran’s clerical fortress. “Negotiations progressing,” per Ali Larijani January 28. Embrace dialogue, not drones.
The Gulf’s fragile peace hangs by a thread—severed by hawks, it unleashes hell. America First? Start by bringing troops home.
February 3, 2026
Bitcoin’s price is going up because a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has started, and the Senate has revealed a major new cryptocurrency bill
Crypto prices, including bitcoin, rose on Tuesday after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
By midday Tuesday, bitcoin had passed the $105,000 level, ether jumped back above the $2,400 mark, and XRP climbed to $2.19.
The risk-on action in the markets, which also saw stocks rally on the Mideast de-escalation, wasn’t the only source of momentum, as Republican senators unveiled a major bill to set the rules of the road for crypto. Specifically, the legislation would define when crypto is a commodity or a security, allow crypto exchanges to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and reduce the Securities and Exchange Commission’s regulation of digital assets — a big reversal from the plans of President Biden’s SEC Chair Gary Gensler to closely regulate the crypto industry.
The new framework was introduced by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott of South Carolina and Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, who heads the panel’s Digital Assets Committee. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the regulatory development was important for the U.S. to regain the lead in the crypto industry, where he said it has fallen behind other markets, including Europe.
Last week, the senate passed a stablecoin bill, marking the first major legislative win for the crypto industry, which now heads to the House for consideration of its version of the bill. Both bills prohibit yield-bearing consumer stablecoins — but differ on agency regulatory oversight. Visa CEO Ryan McInerney weighed in on the advancement of the Senate version, the Genius Act, telling CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” that the credit card giant has been embracing stablecoins.
Meanwhile, investors increased their bets on crypto company Digital Asset, which raised $135 million in funding from several big names in banking and finance, including Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas and hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin’s Citadel Securities. The firm, which touts itself as a regulated crypto player, said it will use the funding to advance adoption of its Canton network, which is a blockchain for financial institutions, another sign of how major financial institutions are embedding themselves into the once obscure crypto world.
June 24, 2025
Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks: What’s on the Line?
Iran and the United States made modest progress during talks in Rome over the future of Iran’s nuclear program, an intermediary said on Friday after the fifth round of discussions.
The two sides met for a little less than three hours and had “some but not conclusive progress,” Oman’s foreign minister, Badr al-Busaidi, said in a cautiously optimistic message on social media. His country has mediated the talks.
“We hope to clarify the remaining issues in the coming days,” he added.
The main issue in the latest round of talks was Washington’s demand that Iran halt all uranium enrichment and dismantle all of its centrifuges. Iran has insisted it will not give up the right to enrich uranium at lower levels, as guaranteed by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is trying to find a formula that works, and the fact that the talks did not break up in acrimony was viewed as positive. It also suggests that Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister and Mr. Witkoff’s counterpart in the discussions, will need to consult with his country’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, over how to proceed.
Still, it was clear that the core disagreement over enrichment had not been resolved. The negotiators are trying to break this deadlock so they can draw up the outlines of an agreement that technical teams can then fill out with details.
If a deal can be struck on the principles, a full agreement will have to cover complicated issues like the phasing of sanctions relief in return for specific steps by Iran to dilute or export its highly enriched uranium, or even to dismantle its extensive enrichment infrastructure.
That would take time, so there is also talk of a possible interim arrangement. If the principles can be agreed on, and while the details are negotiated, Iran might stop enriching uranium in return for some immediate sanctions relief.
A statement by a senior American official said, “We made further progress, but there is still work to be done.”
What happened in previous talks?
Mr. Trump aims to prevent Iran from ever obtaining nuclear weapons. Iran insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.
Both Iran and the United States have said they want to resolve the decades-old dispute, with Tehran limiting its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of U.S. and international economic sanctions.
In Oman on May 11, Iran proposed the creation of a joint nuclear-enrichment venture involving Arab countries and American investment as an alternative to Washington’s demand that it dismantle its nuclear program, according to four Iranian officials familiar with the plan.
Mr. Araghchi proposed the idea, originally floated in 2007, to Mr. Witkoff, according to the Iranian officials. They asked not to be named because they were discussing sensitive issues.
A spokesman for Mr. Witkoff denied that the proposal had come up. But since then, Mr. Witkoff has outlined a harder administration position.
“An enrichment program can never exist in the state of Iran ever again, that’s our red line,” Mr. Witkoff said in an interview this month with Breitbart News. “No enrichment. That means dismantlement, it means no weaponization, and it means that Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan — those are their three enrichment facilities — have to be dismantled.”
Even if the United States prevents Iran from developing nuclear weapons, other concerns include Iran’s advanced missile program, its support of proxy militias around the Middle East and its hostility to Israel.
Iran has said its defense and missile capabilities have not been and will not be raised in these negotiations.
What’s at stake?
The talks have the potential to reshape regional and global security by reducing the chance of a U.S.-backed Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and preventing Iran from producing a nuclear weapon.
A deal could also transform Iran’s economic and political landscape by easing American sanctions and opening the country to foreign investors.
Iran has been enriching uranium to around 60 percent purity, just short of the level needed to produce a weapon. It has amassed enough to build up to seven bombs if it chooses to weaponize, according to the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The I.A.E.A. says it has not found signs of weaponization.
If its nuclear facilities were attacked, Iran has said it would retaliate and consider leaving the U.N. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
Iran’s economy and the future of its 90 million people are also on the line.
Years of sanctions have led to chronic inflation, exacerbated by economic mismanagement and corruption. Many Iranians say they feel trapped in a downward spiral and hope a nuclear deal would help.
What are the sticking points?
A big one is the question of whether to allow Iran to continue enriching uranium.
Mr. Witkoff had earlier described a possible agreement that would allow Iran to enrich uranium at the low levels needed to produce fuel for energy, along with monitoring. But he now says that total dismantlement of the enrichment program is the American bottom line.
That would appear to negate Iran’s proposal of the three-country nuclear consortium, in which Iran would enrich uranium to a low grade, beneath that needed for nuclear weapons, and then ship it to certain Arab countries for civilian use, according to Iranian officials and news reports.
Iranian officials have said they are willing to reduce enrichment levels to those specified in the 2015 nuclear agreement with the Obama administration — 3.67 percent purity — around the level needed to produce fuel for nuclear power plants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested that Iran could have a civilian nuclear program without enriching uranium domestically by importing it, as other countries do.
Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy, left, with Mike Waltz, the national security adviser, in February in Washington. (Eric Lee/The New York Times)
How did we get here?
The previous deal between Iran, the United States and other world powers, signed during the Obama administration, put measures in place to prevent Iran from weaponizing its nuclear program by capping enrichment of uranium, transferring stockpiles of enriched uranium to Russia and allowing monitoring cameras and inspections by the I.A.E.A.
Mr. Trump unilaterally exited the deal in 2018. European companies then pulled out of Iran, and banks stopped working with Iran, fearing U.S. sanctions. About a year after Mr. Trump left the agreement, Iran, not seeing any financial benefits, moved away from its obligations and increased its levels of uranium enrichment, gradually reaching 60 percent.
The Iranians may be attempting a replay. The deal with the Obama administration was preceded by an agreement in principle that served as an outline for the final accord two years later.
Trump administration officials initially rejected this approach, saying it would take too long. But as the administration has come to see the complexities of what it hopes to achieve, such a preliminary accord might help forestall Israel’s threats of military action.
What comes next?
Both sides have agreed to meet again in the near future.
But a deal is not necessarily around the corner. The sides have to break the impasse over enrichment. And talks could still break down at the technical level, which was the most challenging part of previous negotiations.
May 23, 2025
Trump declares the U.S. to be terminating its offensive actions against Houthi forces
The United States and Houthis in Yemen reached a deal to halt American airstrikes against the group after the Iranian-backed militants agreed to cease attacks against American vessels in the Red Sea, President Trump and Omani mediators said Tuesday.
Mr. Trump broke the news of the truce during an unrelated Oval Office meeting with Canada’s prime minister, surprising even his own Pentagon officials.
“They just don’t want to fight,” Mr. Trump said. “And we will honor that and we will stop the bombings. They have capitulated, but more importantly, we will take their word. They say they will not be blowing up ships anymore.”
But despite his claim of success, it remained unclear whether the United States had achieved its objective of stopping the Houthis from impeding international shipping after a costly seven-week bombing campaign.
The Houthis themselves stopped short of declaring a full cease-fire, saying that they would continue to fight Israel. And Houthi officials and supporters swiftly portrayed the deal as a major victory for the militia and a failure for Mr. Trump, spreading a social media hashtag that read “Yemen defeats America.”
For more than a year, the Houthis have been firing projectiles and launching drones at commercial and military ships in the Red Sea in what the militia group has described as a show of solidarity with Gaza residents and with Hamas, the militant group controlling the Palestinian territory.
In mid-March, the United States began striking hundreds of targets to try to reopen international shipping lanes. The campaign has cost well over $1 billion, congressional officials said they learned in closed-door briefings with Pentagon officials last month. The rate of munitions used in the campaign has caused concern among some U.S. military strategists, who are worried it could undermine readiness for a potential conflict with China.
After Mr. Trump unexpectedly broke the news of the deal between the Houthis and the United States, Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, said his country had mediated the agreement.
“In the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping,” he said in a statement on social media.
For his part, Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi politician, said that if the United States halted its attacks on Yemen, the Houthis would halt their attacks on a smaller group: “American military fleets and interests.”
However, Mr. Al-Bukhaiti said the Houthis would continue military operations until Israel lifted its siege on Gaza, “no matter the sacrifices, even if we have to fight until Judgment Day.”
His statement left unclear whether the Houthis would stop attacking other vessels in the crucial shipping lane. The Houthis have said that they were targeting only ships with links to Israel or the United States, but the militia has in the past targeted vessels with no obvious link to either. In an interview with The New York Times on Tuesday, Mr. Al-Bukhaiti did not answer specific questions as to whether the group would continue to attack Israeli-linked ships.
Mahdi al-Mashat, another senior Houthi official, made clear the group intended to retaliate against Israel for its bombing of the main international airport in Yemen on Tuesday. Mr. al-Mashat said the response from the Houthis would be “earth-shattering, painful, and beyond the capability of the Israeli and American enemy to bear.”
Mohammed Ali Al-Houthi, a senior member of the group, also described Mr. Trump’s announcement as a “victory” for the Houthis, implying in a social media post that the agreement meant that the United States was no longer supporting Israel’s battle against the Houthis.
The U.S. Central Command, responsible for operations against the Houthis, referred questions about the agreement to the White House. The White House declined to elaborate on Mr. Trump’s remarks or respond to inquiries about what the administration would do if the Houthis continued strikes against Israeli vessels.
Mr. Trump, who is prone to make offhand remarks that can upend foreign policy, appeared to catch his own Defense Department off guard. Three Pentagon officials said Tuesday afternoon that the military had yet to receive word from the White House to end its offensive operations against the Houthis. The officials were scrambling to figure out how Mr. Trump’s announcement had changed military policy.
The new U.S. truce with the Iranian-backed militants comes as American officials are working to negotiate a deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, and the agreement with the Houthis could play a role in those broader discussions.
Two Iranian officials said on Tuesday that Iran used its influence with the Houthis as part of Oman’s effort to broker a cease-fire and get them to stop firing on U.S. ships. The officials, one in the foreign ministry and one with the Revolutionary Guards, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
The Houthis receive weapons and funding from Iran, and are part of a network of what is regionally known as Iran’s axis of resistance. A recent social media post by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatened action on Iran over Houthi attacks on American ships.
For the past few weeks, Iranian officials have publicly distanced themselves from the Houthis, saying Iran has no control over the group and that their actions are a response to the war in Gaza. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in mid-March that “Houthis act independently based on their own interests and personal views,” and denied Iran had any proxy militia in the region.
Ahmad Zeidabadi, a prominent reformist analyst, wrote on social media that the cease-fire news between the United States and Houthis was “the best news for him” and the worst news for hard-liners in Iran who support proxy militias in the region.
Still, national security experts cast doubt that an agreement would lead to a long-term cessation of attacks in the Red Sea. Mr. Trump’s announcement came just hours after the Houthis released a statement that said it was fighting a “holy war in aid of the wronged Palestinian people in Gaza” and confronting an “Israeli-American-British” enemy.
The Houthis have described their attacks as an attempt to pressure Israel into increasing the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza, where more than two million Palestinians have struggled to obtain food and water — a blockade that has only deepened recently.
Palestinians in Gaza have been under siege by Israel since Hamas carried out a deadly attack in southern Israel in October 2023 and took hostages. Israeli and Houthi forces have also conducted strikes against each other.
“I would anticipate the Houthis will continue to look to strike Israel, as well as what the group calls ‘Israeli-linked’ ships in the Red Sea,” said Gregory Johnsen, a former member of the U.N. Security Council’s Panel of Experts on Yemen. “If that happens, what does the U.S. do: restart the strikes or let Israel deal with the Houthis?”
He also expressed skepticism that the commercial shipping industry would return to the Red Sea en masse, given that the Houthis “haven’t been defeated or degraded to the point that they can’t carry out these attacks.”
“They’ve only promised not to, and whether or not the shipping industry is willing to take the Houthis word for it remains to be seen,” he said.
May 7, 2025