The clock is ticking on trade deals that the U.S. will need to strike with many nations, most notably China, to avoid what President Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has described as an unsustainable tariff war. But in the U.S. farming sector, the damage has already been done and the economic crisis already begun.
U.S. agriculture exporters say the global backlash to Trump’s tariffs is punishing them, especially through a decline in Chinese buying of U.S. farm products, leading to canceled export orders and layoffs.
Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, or AgTC, a leading export trade group for farmers, told CNBC the number of canceled purchases of U.S. agricultural products should not be described as approaching a crisis. “It is a full-blown crisis already,” he said.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday revealed China made its biggest cancellation of pork orders since 2020, halting a shipment of 12,000 tons of pork.
AgTC said “massive” financial losses are already being felt by its members as a result of the trade war, based on reports it is receiving from member companies.
A wood pulp and paperboard exporter reported to the trade group the immediate cancellation or hold of 6,400 metric tons in a warehouse and a hold of 15 railcars sitting in what is known in the supply chain as “demurrage,” when fees are charged for delayed movement of goods.
Meanwhile, the exporter said, 9,000 metric tons of the product are on the water to China, expected to arrive May 13 and facing the threat of costly diversion to Chinese bonded warehouses or to other countries, as Chinese buyers may refuse the cargo and abandon it at port.
One grass seed exporter told AgTC it received two weeks’ notice that eight loads were being canceled by Chinese customers despite vessels already being booked.
At a recent stakeholder meeting at the Port of Oakland headquarters regarding tariff impacts, Port of Oakland Executive Director Kristi McKenney warned that a tariff-induced downturn in the port’s cargo volume — whether from import slowdowns or retaliatory export losses — ultimately could jeopardize job stability and the region’s economic health.
McKenney cited retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, as well as manufactured goods; both are essential exports that move through Oakland. Exports include almonds, beef, pork, dairy, and recycled materials, much of which is destined for Asia. China ranks as the port’s top import trading partner and third export partner, representing 29% of Oakland’s total trade volume.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
Unlike many U.S. ports that lean heavily on imports, Oakland is unique in maintaining a near 50/50 balance of imports and exports. That leaves Oakland concerned that tariff retaliation would directly impact its top export destinations — Japan, Taiwan, China and South Korea — and could significantly erode California’s market share for perishable and high-value commodities.
The Port of Oakland is the No. 1 refrigerated export gateway in the U.S., and nearly all containerized cargo moving through Northern California goes through the Port of Oakland.
“So many local, union jobs depend on the Port’s robust shipping operations including dockworkers, truck operators, and warehouse workers,” said Rep. Lateefah Simon, D-Calif. “I support smart trade policies that uplift workers and lower costs for Oakland’s working families — not an illogical and retaliatory trade war.”
Agricultural exporters warned that there are no other markets that can quickly replace China’s demand and absorb the volume, and that is already affecting prices.
“We have diverted employees and production to other (less profitable) production and dramatically slowed down purchasing from independent venders (loggers, truckers, sawmills),” one lumber exporter reported to AgTC. Some products have already declined 20% in market value, the exporter reported, which it said will influence inventory planning and future investments.
“The U.S. market was stable and improving, but now awash with inventory of former China products,” the lumber exporter said.
An exporter of forage such as hay and straw that is a big business for U.S. farms supplying overseas livestock operations reported 68 blanked sailings after Trump announced new tariffs April 2. It said this limits its ability to export forage goods, as vessel space for exports is restricted on freight ships still calling on U.S. ports.
“The worry is the vessel space that remains is going to be the most expensive/most ‘premium’ services that our product cannot absorb without selling at a loss. Being a high volume, low value item, we cannot afford drastic increases in ocean freight,” the forage exporter reported to AgTC.
There has been a sharp decline in China-to-U.S. vessel traffic, down 22.15% week over week and 44% year over year through April 14, according to the Vizion Global Ocean Bookings Tracker.
“What we’ve seen in the last two weeks is a continued correction in booking demand for U.S. imports, especially U.S. imports from China,” said Ben Tracy, Vizion’s vice president of strategic business development. “We are now seeing this translate to a drop in departures as well.”
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
A hay exporter in central Washington that sends a large amount of its crop output to Hong Kong and mainland China was told to reroute most of the exports shipped in the past two weeks to Japan, Dubai, Taiwan, and a few Chinese ports. Those changes came at a cost to the company, which told the AgTC that “it’s not sustainable, no one can replace all the volume that China buys.”
The hay exporter said it immediately put a stop on all orders in process, and has begun layoffs.
“We had to adjust our employee count down by 12 persons. This accounts for one-fourth of our total employees,” it wrote. The company said it has been communicating to customers and employees its hope that “hasty and reckless decision-making at the top of our country will reverse, easing deep troubles that we are facing at this time.”
In addition to the tariff backlash, agriculture is facing another looming financial challenge with the recently announced SHIPS Act measures approved by the US Trade Representative, with Chinese-made vessels calling at U.S. ports to be charged port fees of more than $1.5 million starting in the fall.
Bulk agriculture was carved out of the port fees imposed under the USTR rule, but agriculture shipped in containers is not exempt from the fees. Friedmann said an exemption is essential because the most valuable U.S. agriculture exports are shipped in containers, not bulk.
Containerized exports include refrigerated beef, pork, poultry, fruit, vegetables, dairy, and processed foods such as french fries. Cotton, nuts, dried dairy, lumber, paper, soybeans for human consumption, and forage, such as hay and alfalfa, are also shipped in containers. “Efforts to exempt all agriculture exports, including containerized agriculture, are continuing,” Friedmann said.
Based on U.S. trade data, the share of U.S. agriculture moved in containers is approximately 25% by volume and nearly 55% by value.
The USTR did not respond to a CNBC request for comment on fee exemptions for containerized agriculture.
“So much of our future lies in the hands of so few,” a hay exporter wrote to AgTC. “We plead for those few to take a very long careful look at what can be done to keep shipments flowing while they work out the trade imbalances and perceived differences.”
