Tag: U.S.–Iran tensions

Oil prices surge above $102 as Saudi Arabia and UAE weigh joining Iran war
Global oil prices passed $102 a barrel on Tuesday morning after reports that U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf are inching toward joining the war against Iran.
Brent crude futures for May delivery were rising 2.8% to trade at $102.74 a barrel as of 8:40 a.m. Eastern time, while West Texas Intermediate contracts for May delivery were up 3.9%, to $91.56 a barrel.
Both oil benchmarks on Monday fell sharply after President Donald Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social that the U.S. would be halting strikes on Iran’s power plants for five days “subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.” Both the Brent and WTI on Monday settled at their lowest levels since March 11, according to FactSet data.
Market optimism has faded since Iran refuted Trump’s claims that the U.S. has had “very good and productive” talks with Tehran, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf calling the announcement “fake news” used to “manipulate” markets.
“Obviously much now depends on the progress of any talks, and whether the more optimistic rhetoric is followed up by concrete action,” Jim Reid, head of global macro research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note on Tuesday, adding that “some nervousness” had crept back into markets, sending Brent crude back past the $100 threshold.
Investors’ concerns regarding the future of the war in Iran were also exacerbated by a Wall Street Journal report on Monday evening that U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf are edging closer to joining the conflict. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are mulling helping efforts as their economies continue to be disrupted by the strikes and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The report notes that neither has deployed its military openly yet, but pressure is increasing as Tehran continues to exert control across the region, with energy infrastructure targeted.
“Investors are still unclear about what happens next. The fog of war is thick,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. “The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to just about everything, and that should continue to support energy prices. This in turn plays into fears of higher inflation, adding to concerns that were building even before hostilities began.”
U.S. stock futures were edging lower after all three major benchmarks on Monday booked their biggest daily percentage gains since early February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were off 0.5%, while the S&P 500 futures were falling 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 futures were dropping 0.6%, according to FactSet data.
March 24, 2026
Trading surge hits markets minutes before Trump’s Iran announcement
S&P 500 futures and crude oil contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at approximately 6:50 a.m. ET Monday—mere minutes before President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” toward resolving hostilities in the Middle East.
The timing has raised eyebrows across trading desks and prompted quiet scrutiny from market participants, even as the White House forcefully denies any impropriety.
According to Bloomberg data reviewed by multiple outlets, roughly 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts traded in a single minute around 6:50 a.m., representing a notional value of approximately $580 million.
At virtually the same instant, S&P 500 e-mini futures recorded an isolated burst of activity that stood out against an otherwise subdued pre-market session. Both oil and equity futures then moved dramatically once Trump’s post appeared at 7:05 a.m.

WTI crude plunged nearly 12% to around $83–$88 per barrel by the close, while Brent fell below $100 for the first time since early March. S&P 500 futures, by contrast, jumped more than 2.5% in the minutes following the announcement, reflecting investor relief that planned U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure had been postponed for five days.

The volume anomalies occurred during thin early-morning liquidity, when even modest order flow can create noticeable spikes. Still, veteran traders described the coordinated moves—aggressive selling or shorting of oil while buying equity futures—as unusually prescient.
“It’s hard to prove causality… but you have to wonder who would have been relatively aggressive at selling futures at that point, 15 minutes before Trump’s post,” one senior market strategist at a major U.S. broker told the Financial Times. Another hedge-fund portfolio manager with 25 years of experience called the pattern “really abnormal” for a quiet Monday morning with no scheduled data releases or Fed speakers.

The SEC and CME Group declined to comment. White House spokesperson Kush Desai rejected any suggestion of insider activity, stating: “The only focus of President Trump and Trump administration officials is doing what’s best for the American people… any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Markets React to De-Escalation — For Now
Trump’s Truth Social post described “productive conversations” with Iran and ordered the postponement of strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, subject to continued talks. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, quickly denied that any negotiations were underway, calling the claim “fake news” designed to manipulate oil and financial markets.

Oil prices, which had climbed aggressively in recent sessions on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, reversed sharply. WTI settled down roughly 10–12% at $83–$88 per barrel, while Brent dropped 11–13% to just under $100. European natural gas (TTF) also fell sharply.
The moves provided temporary relief to risk assets but highlighted how fragile sentiment remains. Morgan Stanley analysts warned that a sustained rise to $120 per barrel oil could shave 20–30 basis points off Asian GDP growth and force rate hikes in several emerging economies later this year.
A Pattern of Well-Timed Trades?
This is not the first instance of unusually prescient trading ahead of major Trump administration announcements in recent months. Hedge funds and energy consultants have privately noted several large block trades that appeared well-timed relative to official statements on Iran and Venezuela.
While such patterns are difficult to prove as improper without concrete evidence, they have generated “a level of frustration” among institutional investors, according to one portfolio manager.
Algorithmic and macro strategies can produce rapid cross-asset flows, especially in thin pre-market hours, but the scale and precision of Monday’s moves—selling oil and buying equities just before a de-escalation announcement—left many questioning whether non-public information circulated.
Political and Market Context
The episode unfolds against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension and domestic political pressure on the Trump administration’s aggressive posture toward Iran. While Trump framed the postponement as a sign of progress, critics argue the administration’s brinkmanship has already inflicted economic pain through elevated energy prices and market volatility.
For now, the market appears to be pricing in cautious optimism that a wider conflict can be avoided. Yet with Iran denying talks and both sides continuing information operations, the “fog of war” remains thick.
Investors would be wise to treat headline-driven moves with skepticism—especially when large, well-timed trades precede them.
March 23, 2026
Iranian missile strikes hit Israeli towns, causing panic and widespread damage
Sheltering from an Iranian missile attack on his town in southern Israel on Saturday, 17-year-old Ido Franky heard “terrifying” blasts like nothing he had experienced before.
An Iranian missile hit Franky’s town of Arad, hours after another struck Dimona — home to a nuclear facility — wounding dozens and leaving entire apartment blocks with heavy damage.
Franky rushed to shelter with his family as air raid sirens sounded, warning of an incoming attack.
“There was a ‘boom, boom!’, my mother was screaming,” he said near the impact site, where an Agence France-Presse correspondent saw three damaged buildings and firefighters reported a blaze.

“This was terrifying… this town had never seen anything like this,” the teenager told Agence France-Presse.
Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency medical service said 84 wounded people were taken to hospitals from the Arad scene, including 10 in serious condition.
In the early hours of Sunday, dozens of people were still at the site, taking photos or calling friends and family to share details of the destruction, even as police warned residents on loudspeakers not to approach.

Security forces patrolled the streets with flashlights while rescuers searched the rubble to ensure all casualties had been recovered.
A crater around of around five metres (16 feet) was left amid the bombed-out buildings.
Police spokesman Dean Elsdunne told AFP that “the operation will take a few hours” before authorities can clear the scene and ensure all residents are accounted for.
An earlier missile attack hit the town of Dimona, about 25 kilometres (16 miles) southwest of Arad.
Dimona hosts a facility widely believed to possess the Middle East’s sole nuclear arsenal, although Israel has never confirmed possessing nuclear weapons.
Israel has maintained a policy of ambiguity about its nuclear programme, and the plant officially focuses on research.
The missile fell about five kilometres away from the facility, leaving about 30 people wounded according to rescuers.
Online videos showed the missile engulfed in a ball of fire, crashing into the ground.
AFP footage showed heavy damage to an apartment building, next to a crater formed in the ground. Two structures have collapsed with debris including concrete blocks littering the area.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was “a very difficult evening in the battle for our future”.
“We are determined to continue striking our enemies on all fronts,” Netanyahu told Arad’s mayor, according to a statement from the prime minister’s office.

The strike on Dimona — home to a nuclear facility — wounded dozens and left entire apartment blocks with heavy damage. (Jorge NOVOMINSKY)
Military spokesman Brigadier General Effie Defrin wrote on X that “air defence systems operated but did not intercept the missile, we will investigate the incident.”
Israeli media have shared footage from Arad and Dimona, capturing scenes that have replayed across the country in attacks since the war began on February 28 with US-Israeli air raids on Iran.
In security camera footage aired by Israeli networks, people could be seen being thrown to the ground by the force of the blast as glass windows shatter.
Iranian missile attacks since the start of the war have killed 15 people in Israel as well as four Palestinian women in the occupied West Bank.
While not the deadliest, Saturday’s hits on Dimona and Arad were among the Iranian attacks to have inflicted the greatest damage in Israel.
The launches came even as the United States and Israel keep pounding targets across Iran and say they have degraded the Islamic republic’s capabilities.
March 22, 2026
China positions itself as ‘Harbour of Stability’ to global CEOs amid U.S.–Iran tensions
China sought to woo global chief executives including Apple’s Tim Cook, UBS’s Sergio Ermotti and HSBC’s Georges Elhedery in Beijing on Sunday, touting the country’s safety and reliability in stark contrast to a US bogged down in war with Iran.
Premier Li Qiang told more than 70 chief executives gathered in the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse for the government’s annual Davos-style forum that the world’s second-largest economy offered an unmatched supply chain and a predictable commercial environment.
The country was committed to being a “cornerstone of certainty” and a “harbour of stability” in the face of rising trade protectionism and upheaval in the rules-based international order, said Li.
“China will unswervingly promote high-level opening up to the outside, import more high-quality foreign goods and work with all parties to promote the optimised and balanced development of trade, jointly expanding the global economic and trade pie,” he told the audience.
The conference, the China Development Forum, is held every year in late March after the meeting of the country’s rubber-stamp parliament. It acts as the leadership’s vehicle for pressing its talking points on global CEOs.
This year, Beijing is selling its latest five-year economic plan to 2030 as an opportunity for foreign investment.

“Li didn’t name America . . . but the message is clear that China is now safer, more reliable and stable, and more focused on economic development rather than conflicts,” said George Chen, a partner at the Asia Group consultancy who was present at the meeting.

The conference comes amid widening concern over China’s huge trade surplus, which hit a record $1.2tn last year. In Europe, there are worries that low-cost Chinese imports are eliminating jobs.

The five-year plan largely doubles down on China’s manufacturing-oriented high-tech industrial policy, raising fears of an even greater shock to western factories.

People’s Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng defended the country’s exports in a speech on Sunday about global economic “rebalancing”.

Pan rejected the claim that China’s competitiveness was a result of government subsidies, attributing it to economic reforms, the size of its domestic market and the strength of its supply chains and research.

Without naming the US, he described some countries’ persistent trade deficits as being the result of “an international monetary system dominated by a single sovereign currency”.

Jeanine Pirro takes aim at the ruling by James Boasberg on Friday. (Reuters)
Other business leaders on the invitee list this year include Siemens’ Roland Busch, Volkswagen’s Oliver Blume, SK Hynix’s Kwak Noh-jung, Nestlé’s Philipp Navratil, Mercedes-Benz’s Ola Källenius, KKR’s Joseph Bae, Cargill’s Brian Sikes, Standard Chartered’s Bill Winters and Boston Consulting Group’s Christoph Schweizer.

US executives were well represented this year, accounting for 45 per cent of invitees, according to an analysis by Han Shen Lin of the Asia Group. Europeans made up 36 per cent with the remainder from Asia, Australia and elsewhere.

Financial services dominated, accounting for about 22 per cent of invitees, while those from the energy sector were only about 4 per cent.

Apple chief executive Cook delivered a speech after Li on opportunities in education and other areas in China.
Unlike in the previous two forums, President Xi Jinping is not expected to meet top executives this year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Asia Group’s Chen said Li’s speech was the most confident he had seen in recent years, though the premier refrained from directly criticising US President Donald Trump.

Trump, who recently postponed a meeting expected on April 1 with Xi in Beijing, is still widely expected to be planning a visit this year.

On Saturday evening, vice-premier He Lifeng, the economic tsar running trade negotiations with the US, held a dinner with a group of mostly European executives to tout the country’s five-year plan.

The executives mostly praised China and talked up their own companies, said one of the people present at the dinner, but there was some discussion of Chinese overcapacity and the risks for European industry.
March 21, 2026