Tag: Russia-Belarus War

In a bold move that has hawkish conservatives in Washington raising alarms, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dispatched troops to participate in Russia and Belarus’s Zapad-2025 military exercises—drills widely seen as a rehearsal for conflict with NATO neighbors. This “red line” crossing comes amid unraveling relations between New Delhi and the Trump administration, fueled by trade tariffs and perceived slights, signaling Modi’s willingness to cozy up to Vladimir Putin at a time when the free world needs reliable allies against Moscow’s aggression.

The Zapad maneuvers, kicking off last Friday and wrapping up Tuesday, showcase Russia’s military might with around 30,000 troops from Russia and Belarus spread across Belarus, Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, the Baltic and Barents seas, and training grounds east of Moscow. At the Borisovsky Training Ground in central Belarus, journalists witnessed a spectacle of firepower: Su-34 fighter bombers dropping bombs, tanks and artillery unleashing barrages, and drones—reconnaissance, kamikaze FPV, and bomber variants—swarming the mock battlefield. Ground-based robots even simulated recovering wounded troops, a nod to lessons from the grinding war in Ukraine.

These exercises, meaning “West” in Russian, simulate defending against a Western assault on Belarus, with special emphasis on countering Poland’s troop buildup along the border. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin stressed the drills’ defensive nature, pointing to NATO’s “militarization” on their western flank. “We are demonstrating our openness, our peace-loving nature, but we must always keep our powder dry,” he told reporters. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed this, insisting the games are about “continuing military cooperation” between allies, not targeting any third country—though he bluntly accused NATO of being “de facto engaged” in the Ukraine war through aid to Kyiv.

Tensions are sky-high after nearly two dozen Russian long-range drones breached Polish airspace last week—the largest such incursion ever into NATO territory. Warsaw shot down at least three with F-16s and Dutch F-35s, calling it intentional escalation. Poland responded by closing its Belarus border and airspace, deploying 40,000 troops. Lithuania and Latvia followed suit, shuttering their Belarusian borders. The drills are expected to feature nuclear demonstrations, Zircon hypersonic missile launches, and operations with the nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missile—already used against Ukraine.

Enter India: Modi’s government has sent a 65-strong contingent, including elite troops from the storied Kumaon Regiment, to the Mulino training ground near Nizhny Novgorod, Russia—safely away from NATO’s edges. Comprising 57 army personnel, seven from the air force, and one from the navy, the Indian team is engaging in joint training, tactical drills, and special arms skills. New Delhi’s defense ministry framed it as a way to “further strengthen defence co-operation and foster camaraderie between India and Russia, thereby reinforcing the spirit of collaboration and mutual trust.”

From a conservative viewpoint, this is less about “camaraderie” and more about Modi hedging his bets in a multipolar world, prioritizing cheap Russian arms over strategic alignment with the West. India, long Moscow’s top weapons buyer, has joined Zapad before—even pre-Ukraine invasion—but this year’s participation feels particularly tone-deaf. It follows Modi’s schmoozing with Putin and Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, where he hailed India’s “special and privileged” ties with Russia. With the exercises moved deeper into Belarus to avoid provoking the West, and even U.S. military observers in attendance (alongside Turkey and Hungary), the optics are terrible: a nuclear-armed democracy training with aggressors while America foots the bill for Ukraine’s defense.

U.S. relations with India are hitting turbulence under President Trump. Just a month after Trump’s Alaska summit with Putin, his proposed Putin-Zelenskyy meeting remains in limbo, and he’s balked at new Russia sanctions unless NATO allies curb Russian oil buys and slap tariffs on China. Trump dismissed the Polish drone incursions as possibly “a mistake”—a claim Polish PM Donald Tusk shot down: “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.” Adding insult, Trump slapped 50 percent tariffs on most Indian goods, hosted Pakistan’s army chief, and boasted of “ending” an India-Pakistan clash.

David Merkel, a former U.S. State Department Europe and Eurasia chief turned geostrategy consultant, didn’t mince words: “India’s active participation in the Zapad exercise, following the drone incursion on Poland and chilling relations between Washington and New Delhi, raises concerns about the future extent of the US-India security relationship.” He added that it shows Modi “leaning on” Moscow amid “uncertainty” with Trump. German analyst Ulrich Speck called it a “red line” crossed, while Finnish expert Sari Arho Havren labeled the involvement “unnecessary and terrible optics.”

This thaw in U.S.-Belarus ties—evidenced by envoy John Cole’s visit lifting sanctions on Belavia airline, plans to reopen the Minsk embassy, and the release of political prisoners—only heightens the irony. Two U.S. officers observed Monday’s drills, shaking hands with Khrenin, who welcomed them warmly. Yet India’s deeper dive underscores a broader conservative worry: as Russia grinds on in Ukraine (where manpower shortages have shrunk Zapad to a fraction of past scales—the 2023 edition was canceled outright), allies like India are playing footsie with the bear, emboldening Putin while straining the transatlantic alliance.

Modi’s gamble might secure short-term arms deals, but it risks long-term isolation from the West. With Zelenskyy pressing for sanctions and NATO on edge, Trump’s “America First” doctrine demands partners who pick sides—not straddle the line. If India keeps this up, the Quad’s anti-China pivot could falter, leaving the Indo-Pacific vulnerable just as Beijing eyes Taiwan.