S&P 500 futures and crude oil contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at approximately 6:50 a.m. ET Monday—mere minutes before President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” toward resolving hostilities in the Middle East.
The timing has raised eyebrows across trading desks and prompted quiet scrutiny from market participants, even as the White House forcefully denies any impropriety.
According to Bloomberg data reviewed by multiple outlets, roughly 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts traded in a single minute around 6:50 a.m., representing a notional value of approximately $580 million.
At virtually the same instant, S&P 500 e-mini futures recorded an isolated burst of activity that stood out against an otherwise subdued pre-market session. Both oil and equity futures then moved dramatically once Trump’s post appeared at 7:05 a.m.
More Middle East
WTI crude plunged nearly 12% to around $83–$88 per barrel by the close, while Brent fell below $100 for the first time since early March. S&P 500 futures, by contrast, jumped more than 2.5% in the minutes following the announcement, reflecting investor relief that planned U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure had been postponed for five days.
The volume anomalies occurred during thin early-morning liquidity, when even modest order flow can create noticeable spikes. Still, veteran traders described the coordinated moves—aggressive selling or shorting of oil while buying equity futures—as unusually prescient.
“It’s hard to prove causality… but you have to wonder who would have been relatively aggressive at selling futures at that point, 15 minutes before Trump’s post,” one senior market strategist at a major U.S. broker told the Financial Times. Another hedge-fund portfolio manager with 25 years of experience called the pattern “really abnormal” for a quiet Monday morning with no scheduled data releases or Fed speakers.
The SEC and CME Group declined to comment. White House spokesperson Kush Desai rejected any suggestion of insider activity, stating: “The only focus of President Trump and Trump administration officials is doing what’s best for the American people… any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Markets React to De-Escalation — For Now
Trump’s Truth Social post described “productive conversations” with Iran and ordered the postponement of strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, subject to continued talks. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, quickly denied that any negotiations were underway, calling the claim “fake news” designed to manipulate oil and financial markets.
Oil prices, which had climbed aggressively in recent sessions on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, reversed sharply. WTI settled down roughly 10–12% at $83–$88 per barrel, while Brent dropped 11–13% to just under $100. European natural gas (TTF) also fell sharply.
The moves provided temporary relief to risk assets but highlighted how fragile sentiment remains. Morgan Stanley analysts warned that a sustained rise to $120 per barrel oil could shave 20–30 basis points off Asian GDP growth and force rate hikes in several emerging economies later this year.
A Pattern of Well-Timed Trades?
This is not the first instance of unusually prescient trading ahead of major Trump administration announcements in recent months. Hedge funds and energy consultants have privately noted several large block trades that appeared well-timed relative to official statements on Iran and Venezuela.
While such patterns are difficult to prove as improper without concrete evidence, they have generated “a level of frustration” among institutional investors, according to one portfolio manager.
Algorithmic and macro strategies can produce rapid cross-asset flows, especially in thin pre-market hours, but the scale and precision of Monday’s moves—selling oil and buying equities just before a de-escalation announcement—left many questioning whether non-public information circulated.
Political and Market Context
The episode unfolds against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension and domestic political pressure on the Trump administration’s aggressive posture toward Iran. While Trump framed the postponement as a sign of progress, critics argue the administration’s brinkmanship has already inflicted economic pain through elevated energy prices and market volatility.
For now, the market appears to be pricing in cautious optimism that a wider conflict can be avoided. Yet with Iran denying talks and both sides continuing information operations, the “fog of war” remains thick.
Investors would be wise to treat headline-driven moves with skepticism—especially when large, well-timed trades precede them.
In the shadow of Mount Fuji, where ancient traditions meet cutting-edge innovation, a quiet revolution is underway in Japan’s corporate landscape. Private equity heavyweights from Wall Street to Singapore are descending on the world’s fourth-largest economy, drawn by a potent cocktail of undervalued assets, rock-bottom borrowing costs, and a government-mandated push for shareholder value. What was once dismissed as a sclerotic market riddled with inefficient conglomerates is now the hottest ticket in global buyouts, with deal values surging and fundraising hitting decade highs.
The numbers tell a compelling story. According to Preqin Pro data, Japan-focused private equity funds raised a robust $8 billion in 2024, matching the previous year’s haul and dwarfing the $5 billion annual average over the prior decade. This capital stockpiling signals unbridled optimism: firms are amassing dry powder faster than they can deploy it, betting on a pipeline of bargains that could redefine returns in an era of elevated U.S. interest rates and frothy valuations elsewhere.
Historical trends underscore the momentum. From 2015 to 2024, aggregate capital raised for Japan-focused funds climbed steadily, peaking at $8.0 billion in both 2023 and 2024, with the number of funds closing each year hovering between 25 and 46. The 2024 vintage saw 41 funds close, raising $8.0 billion – a testament to investor appetite that has grown from a modest $1.6 billion across 27 funds in 2016. “The stockpiling of capital raised but not yet invested indicates that private equity sees more opportunities in Japan,” notes Hajime Koyanagi, general manager of the investment strategy department at Nihon M&A Center, a leading Japanese advisory firm.
On the investment front, the surge is even more pronounced. S&P Global Market Intelligence reports that private equity- and venture capital-backed investments in Japan ballooned 40.8% year-over-year to $17.90 billion in 2024, accounting for 15.6% of all such activity in the Asia-Pacific region – up from 10.6% in 2023. This marked the highest share for Japan in the period, with deal counts reaching 1,045 in 2024, following 978 in 2023. Year-to-date through October 2025, Deloitte data shows 192 deals already inked, on pace to eclipse last year’s total of 292.
Japan’s slice of APAC PE/VC pie has steadily expanded: from 4.1% in 2019 to 15.6% in 2024, per S&P Global. “Momentum is expected to continue in 2025, pushing private equity transaction value – and the competition among firms hunting deals – even higher this year,” Koyanagi predicts. Bain & Co.’s Azusa Owa, a Japan-based partner, echoes this: “Japan is fundamentally a very attractive market from a return perspective.” Between 2010 and 2024, Japanese PE deals delivered 2.4 times the invested capital in dollar terms – the highest globally, outpacing the U.S.’s 2.3x multiple, even accounting for yen depreciation.
Low-Hanging Fruit in a Yen-Fueled Bargain Basement
At the heart of the frenzy is a simple thesis: Japan’s 3,900-plus publicly listed companies are awash in cash but starved of ambition. Many operate as sprawling keiretsu-style conglomerates, hoarding underperforming units, shunning price hikes amid decades of deflationary scars, and carrying debt loads lighter than a feather – averaging just 20-30% debt-to-equity ratios, versus 50-60% in the U.S. For PE firms accustomed to leveraging deals with high-yield debt, this is catnip. Leveraged buyout financing in Japan runs a mere 3-4%, compared to 8-9% stateside, courtesy of the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy.
“Japan seems like fresh territory to hunt for bargains, especially given the relatively weak yen,” observes Megumi Kiyozuka, president of Tokyo-based Sunrise Capital. Last year, Kiyozuka targeted $500 million for his latest fund but capped it there after global limited partners clamored to pour in up to $2 billion – before he’d even left Japan. It’s a far cry from 2013, when he crisscrossed the globe, pitching to 200 investors to scrape together $200 million from a pair of skeptics. “Years ago, people declined to invest in Japan because they said it was inefficient. Now everyone says they like Japan because it’s inefficient,” Kiyozuka quips. “It’s the same reason, but it can be used as a reason to decline or to invest.”
Corporate Japan, long insulated by cross-shareholdings and lifetime employment norms, is cracking open. The Tokyo Stock Exchange’s 2023 mandate – requiring firms trading below book value to disclose improvement plans – has lit a fire under laggards. A fresh government guideline urges boards to “seriously consider” takeover bids, while activist investors like Elliott Management and Oasis Management have amassed stakes in blue-chips from Toshiba to Nissan, demanding spin-offs and buybacks.
The result? A torrent of take-privates, carve-outs, and growth capital rounds. “There are dramatic changes in corporate Japan,” says Teppei Takanabe, co-head of investment banking at Goldman Sachs in Japan. “They have become sensitive to shareholder return, capital efficiency and reconstruction of their business portfolio.” Smaller family-run enterprises, grappling with a “succession crisis” among aging owners, are increasingly amenable to sales, per Satoshi Ishiguro, an executive director at Daiwa Corporate Advisory.
Gavin Geminder, global head of private equity at KPMG LLP, highlights the financing edge: “There’s no economy in Asia with the type of interest rate environment that Japan has, so borrowing money is obviously super-cheap.” Add in paths to value creation – like internationalizing tech-heavy portfolios or juicing razor-thin margins – and the allure intensifies. “Japanese corporates have incredible technology, but they have perhaps struggled to market it outside of Japan,” says Nick Wall, a Tokyo-based partner at Allen & Overy Shearman Sterling LLP. “Private equity definitely sees opportunities there.”
The big players are voting with their checkbooks. KKR & Co., which views Japan as its premier non-U.S. deployment market, kicked off 2024 with a bang: a $3.9 billion acquisition of a 33.57% stake in Fuji Soft Inc., the largest PE deal in Japan last year. The follow-on $2.6 billion bid to privatize the software developer ranked third. Eiji Yatagawa, KKR’s Japan private equity head, recalls a landmark 2017 play: snapping up Kokusai Electric from Hitachi for ¥257 billion ($1.7 billion), streamlining it into a semiconductor pure-play, and flipping it via IPO in 2023 at ¥424 billion – a tidy multiple.
Bain Capital tallied over $10 billion in Japanese deals in 2024 alone. Blackstone and Sweden’s EQT AB, in a summer sprint, each unveiled ~$3 billion take-privates of public firms within weeks. Hillhouse Investment Management and Rava Partners teamed for the $2.8 billion privatization of real estate developer SAMTY Holdings Co. Ltd., the year’s second-biggest splash. Warburg Pincus and Hillhouse are staffing up with Japan specialists and plotting brick-and-mortar expansions.
Domestic heavyweights aren’t sitting idle. Japan-based firms snagged two of 2024’s top 10 deals: a $388 million buyout of auto retailer BigMotor Co. (rebranded WECARS) and a $211.7 million pour into AI startup Sakana AI K.K. The full 2024 leaderboard, per S&P Global, reads like a who’s-who of cross-border ambition:
Sectors span consumer (e.g., Sakana AI), healthcare (Alfresa), industrials (BigMotor), real estate (SAMTY), and TMT (Fuji Soft). “More and more foreign funds are making inroads into Japan as they see more room for Japanese companies to improve extremely low productivity,” Koyanagi adds.
Not all is golden. The PE model draws fire for prioritizing short-term gains – asset stripping, cost-slashing – over long-term health. “It does make sense that in an economy like Japan – where companies have historically not been focused on maximizing profits – private equity can sometimes help sharpen that focus,” concedes Ludovic Phalippou, finance professor at Oxford’s Saïd Business School. Yet, “the pressure to increase returns can lead to cost-cutting or strategies that don’t necessarily improve outcomes for customers or employees. In either case, however, PE fund managers do well, because they charge extraordinary fees.”
Japan’s scorecard isn’t spotless. KKR’s 2019 Marelli Holdings merger – blending Japanese and Italian auto-parts assets – cratered amid COVID and EV disruptions, triggering Japanese rehabilitation proceedings and U.S. Chapter 11. The firm absorbed a $2 billion writedown before injecting $650 million to nurse it back. “That was definitely a very challenging situation,” Yatagawa admits. “We believe we did everything we could.”
Perception has shifted, too. Once branded “vultures,” PE suitors now enjoy red-carpet treatment, aided by succession woes and reform winds. But maturity brings thorns: Exit timelines are stretching, with just 44% of 2018-2020 deals sold or IPO’d within five years, versus 54% for 2015-2017 vintages (Bain data). “Deal opportunity and availability is evolving, however not as fast as money is raised,” Owa warns. “Some funds who raised money struggle to use it.” This mismatch risks bid-up valuations, spurring demand for mezzanine debt, per Takanabe.
Atsuhiko Sakamoto, Blackstone’s Japan PE chief, tempers the hype: “The boom is just expectations. Reality hasn’t caught up with the hype yet. I’m very excited about the next few years.” Wall of Allen & Overy, a Japan veteran since the ’90s, marvels at the thaw: “In the ’90s, one of the things you heard a lot from foreign investors is, ‘I’d love to invest in Japan but there aren’t any assets to buy.’ And that is changing.”
Barring geopolitical shocks, 2025 shapes up as a banner year. Geminder of KPMG forecasts “a record year for Japan,” fueled by cheap debt, activist tailwinds, and middle-market bounty. Ishiguro of Daiwa sees the aversion to PE fading: “Japan’s business community is overcoming a longstanding aversion to partnering with or selling to private equity.”
As Eiji Yatagawa of KKR puts it, “Japan is still in the very early stage of its private equity history. This industry evolution still has a long way to go.” For global titans, the Land of the Rising Sun is no longer a sideshow – it’s the main event, where inefficiency meets opportunity, and bargains await the bold.
Joe Biden, the doddering architect of America’s near-collapse under socialist policies and endless scandals, is now reaping what he sowed in the form of a post-presidency that’s as bankrupt as his administration’s border strategy. Eight months after handing the White House back to a resurgent Donald Trump, Biden finds himself persona non grata among the elite circles that once propped him up. Corporate boards won’t touch him, speaking gigs are evaporating faster than his poll numbers, and donors are treating his presidential library like a toxic asset. This isn’t just bad karma; it’s a market correction on a failed leader whose unpopularity and the looming shadow of Trump’s retribution have turned “Diamond Joe” into fool’s gold.
Let’s face it: Ex-presidents typically glide into golden parachutes, cashing in on their Oval Office stint with seven-figure speaking fees, cushy board seats, and memoir deals that could fund small nations. Bill Clinton turned influence-peddling into an art form, raking in $200 million post-White House. Barack Obama? He and Michelle scored a $60 million book bonanza and Netflix gigs while hobnobbing with billionaires. Even George W. Bush paints his way to quiet millions. But Biden? At 82, battling a severe prostate cancer diagnosis that’s metastasized, he’s reduced to haggling over scraps. The Wall Street Journal lays it bare: No corporate sinecures for old Joe, thanks to his glaring cognitive decline—evident in that fateful 2024 debate that sealed his fate—and the baggage of a presidency marred by inflation, crime waves, and foreign policy blunders.
Speaking fees? Sure, he’s quoting $300,000 to $500,000 a pop, but the invites are scarce, and bookers are lowballing him like a yard sale find. Why? Fear of Trump’s wrath. With the 47th president vowing to drain the swamp deeper than ever, companies dread audits, investigations, or lost contracts if they align with the man who weaponized the DOJ against conservatives. As one insider whispered to The Journal, “Who’s going to risk it for Biden?” Instead of jet-setting on private planes—avoiding those pesky “unsavory flight logs” à la Epstein—Biden’s slumming it in coach on American Airlines or breaking Amtrak quiet car rules with his endless chatter. His Fourth of July? Holed up in a luxury trailer in Malibu, courtesy of Hunter’s pal Moby. Nice, but hardly the Hamptons elite circuit where real power brokers summer.
The real kicker is the Biden Presidential Library—or lack thereof. NBC News reports a donor drought that’s turned the project into a punchline. John Morgan, the Florida lawyer who funneled $800,000 to Biden’s doomed reelection, scoffed: “I don’t believe a library will ever be built unless it’s a bookmobile from the old days.” Another top bundler? A flat “Me? No way.” Over a dozen major Democratic funders are sitting on their wallets, blaming Biden’s ego-driven refusal to bow out gracefully, which gifted Trump a landslide. The projected $200-300 million price tag? Forget it; they’re saving for the party’s post-Biden rebuild. Contrast that with Trump’s library plans, already flush with MAGA millions and set to be a monument to American greatness in Florida.
Biden’s not destitute—far from it. His $250,600 presidential pension, plus $166,000 from Senate and VP annuities, keeps the lights on. A $10 million Hachette book deal for his memoirs will pad the nest, though it’s a pittance next to the Obamas’ haul—ego bruise alert. But obligations mount: He’s bankrolling Hunter’s post-pardon legal circus (despite the get-out-of-jail-free card, debts linger) and supporting Ashley amid her divorce woes. Then there’s the $800,000 mortgage on his Rehoboth Beach mansion, compounded by a 20% property tax spike this year. For a guy whose “lifestyle” screams modest (read: boring), these hits sting, especially as Trump’s economy booms, lifting all boats except Biden’s leaky dinghy.
This financial flop isn’t misfortune; it’s market justice. Biden’s presidency was a disaster: Skyrocketing costs from “Bidenomics,” an open border inviting chaos, and a foreign policy that emboldened adversaries from Beijing to Tehran. Voters rejected it resoundingly, and now the donor class is following suit. Trump’s shadow looms large—his promises of accountability have executives thinking twice about associating with the Biden brand, synonymous with corruption and incompetence. As the Journal notes, even universities are wary after the Penn Biden Center’s classified docs fiasco. The cold shoulder? It’s conservatives’ quiet revenge, proving that in Trump’s America, failure has consequences.
Biden’s diminished twilight serves as a cautionary tale for the left: Peddle radical agendas, ignore the will of the people, and watch your legacy evaporate. While Trump builds empires and rallies crowds, Biden fades into irrelevance, a footnote in the history of American resurgence. If he’s lucky, that bookmobile library might tour nursing homes—fitting for a president who put the nation to sleep.
The housing market seems to be stuck in second gear.
Mortgage rates eased out to 6.35% this week, though the lowest it has been in nearly a year, but affordability remains mostly tight.
Moreover, July existing-home sales ran at 4.01 million SAAR, with around 4.6 months’ supply and a $422,400 median price. August list price held around the $429,990 mark while homes sat 60 days on market, up seven days year-over-year.
That mix mostly points to cautious buyers, along with a thin supply, despite a small rate break.
Stock Widget
Against that backdrop, one housing stock has gone near-vertical. Opendoor Technologies OPEN +269.00% ▲ has surged close to 269% in the past month.
Surprisingly, the incredible activity in the stock isn’t about a sudden macro tailwind. It’s about a company-specific pivot that has Wall Street back on the bandwagon.
What is Opendoor Technologies?
Opendoor is a tech-heavy homebuyer that makes efficient use of data and algorithms to make instant cash offers on homes. It also resells them with the aim to swap the long listing process for clarity and speed.
Think of it like trading in a car, which you can sell directly to Opendoor for cash and then pick your closing date, while the company handles repairs/resale on its side.
It’s important to note that Opendoor went public via a shell company when it merged with Social Capital Hedosophia II (IPOB). The deal closed mid-December 2020, with the combined company trading as OPEN on Dec. 21, 2020.
Opendoor stock reached an all-time high closing price of $35.88 on Feb. 11, 2021, which was a period fueled by record-low mortgage rates (2.65% in January 2021 to be precise), along with a red-hot housing market that strengthened its iBuying business model.
Challenges for Opendoor’s business and stock in past few years
Mortgage rates jumped from 2021 lows, which effectively killed affordability and turnover.
Existing-home sales tanked to multi-decade lows in 2024, crippling Opendoor’s deal flow.
Large losses and inventory write-downs (its massive net loss of $1.4 billion in 2022, for instance) pressured capital and sentiment.
iBuyer model credibility hit when one of its competitors (Zillow Offers) exited in 2021, on the back of price-forecasting issues.
Opendoor stock surges on founder-led reset
Opendoor has clearly been one of the hottest stocks of late. It’s up 269% in the past month, 650% over six months, and an eye-catching 467% year to date on the back of its “founder-led” reset.
That reset had everything to do with former Shopify’s COO Kaz Nejatian assuming the role of CEO, while cofounders Keith Rabois (as chair) and Eric Wu returned to the board.
Alongside the critical leadership changes, there was a $40 million equity injection from Khosla Ventures and Wu.
Nejatian laid out the vision clearly:
“It’s a privilege to become Opendoor’s leader… With AI, we have the tools to make [home buying/selling] radically simpler, faster, and more certain.” Also, incentives are designed to match ambition, with his base pay being $1, plus performance-tied equity grants.
The Fresh capital extends the runway as the founder-mode philosophy expands oversight while tightening governance, with early signals pointing to aggressive cost discipline.
Rabois called the company overstaffed, resulting in sharp opex cuts in the upcoming quarters. That will efficiently reset unit economics, support margins, and strengthen long-term viability.
USA Rare Earth USAR +23.20% ▲, a key player in the domestic rare earths and magnet production industry, is riding a wave of investor enthusiasm following a flurry of positive developments. The company reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 12, 2025, and announced a new memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Enduro Pipeline Services, marking its 12th such agreement to date. These milestones, coupled with strong customer interest in its upcoming rare earth magnet production facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, have propelled USAR shares up 23.2% as of 10:08 a.m. ET on August 13, recovering sharply from a 5% decline the previous day.
USA Rare Earth, a key player in the domestic rare earths and magnet production industry, is riding a wave of investor enthusiasm following a flurry of positive developments. The company reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 12, 2025, and announced a new memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Enduro Pipeline Services, marking its 12th such agreement to date. These milestones, coupled with strong customer interest in its upcoming rare earth magnet production facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, have propelled USAR shares up 23.2% as of 10:08 a.m. ET on August 13, recovering sharply from a 5% decline the previous day. The surge underscores the market’s growing confidence in USA Rare Earth’s potential to address critical supply chain gaps in the U.S. amid rising geopolitical tensions and demand for rare earth magnets.
USA Rare Earth is positioning itself as a cornerstone of America’s efforts to reduce reliance on foreign rare earth supplies, particularly from China, which dominates global production. The company’s flagship project, a rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, is on track to begin production in the first quarter of 2026. This facility will produce neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets, essential components in electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, aerospace, and defense applications. The strategic importance of domestic rare earth production has drawn significant attention, with posts on X highlighting USA Rare Earth as a “must-watch” stock in the context of U.S. supply chain resilience.
The company’s announcement of 12 signed MOUs and joint development agreements, representing potential commitments for 300 tons of annual magnet production, signals robust demand. Joshua Ballard, CEO of USA Rare Earth, emphasized the momentum in a press release: “With a dozen initial signed agreements and active engagements with over 70 companies across multiple high-growth industries, we have the potential to sell out our first 1,200-ton production line prior to commissioning its full capacity.” The latest MOU with Enduro Pipeline Services, a provider of pipeline cleaning and inspection tools, further diversifies the company’s customer base, which already includes clients in aerospace, defense, and data sectors.
Q2 2025 Financials: A Pre-Revenue Pivot Point
As a pre-revenue company, USA Rare Earth’s Q2 2025 financial results, released after market close on August 12, 2025, offer limited traditional metrics for investors. The company reported a net loss of $142.7 million, compared to $2.8 million in the same quarter the previous year, primarily due to increased investment in its Oklahoma facility and operational scaling. However, its adjusted earnings per share of -$0.08 beat analyst expectations of -$0.10, providing a silver lining. The company also maintained a strong liquidity position, with $121.8 million in cash at the end of Q2, rising to $128.1 million as of August 7, 2025, and no debt on its balance sheet.
While the lack of revenue may temper some investor enthusiasm, the market’s reaction suggests confidence in USA Rare Earth’s operational progress and strategic positioning. Posts on X reflect this sentiment, with one user noting, “$USAR’s cash position and customer deals make it a rare opportunity in a critical sector.” The company’s ability to secure agreements before production begins underscores its potential to capture a significant share of the domestic rare earth market, projected to grow to $5.6 billion by 2030 as demand for EVs and renewable energy surges.
Market Dynamics: A Race for Rare Earth Dominance
The rare earths market is at a critical juncture, driven by geopolitical tensions and the global push for clean energy. China currently controls approximately 80% of global rare earth production and over 90% of NdFeB magnet manufacturing, creating vulnerabilities for Western supply chains. U.S. efforts to bolster domestic production have gained urgency, particularly in light of export restrictions and high prices, as noted by industry analyst Scott Lincicome on X. USA Rare Earth’s Stillwater facility, one of the few domestic projects nearing completion, positions the company as a linchpin in these efforts.
The company’s success in securing 12 MOUs, including the recent agreement with Enduro Pipeline Services, highlights its appeal across diverse industries. These agreements cover potential deliveries of magnets for applications ranging from EV motors to defense systems, reflecting the versatility of rare earth magnets. With active discussions ongoing with over 70 companies, USA Rare Earth is poised to sell out its initial 1,200-ton production line, a significant milestone for a facility still under construction.
However, risks remain. The Stillwater plant’s completion and operational success are not guaranteed, and any delays could dampen investor confidence. Additionally, the company faces competition from other domestic players like MP Materials and global producers in Australia and Canada. Despite these challenges, USA Rare Earth’s focus on vertical integration—from mining at its Round Top deposit in Texas to magnet production in Oklahoma—gives it a unique edge in controlling the entire supply chain.
The 23.2% surge in USAR shares on August 13 reflects investor optimism about the company’s trajectory, but potential investors should approach with caution. As a pre-revenue company, USA Rare Earth carries inherent risks, particularly given the capital-intensive nature of its operations. The Stillwater facility’s construction and the company’s ability to meet its Q1 2026 production timeline will be critical tests. Delays or cost overruns could pressure the stock, which has already experienced volatility, as evidenced by the 5% drop on August 12.
On the upside, USA Rare Earth’s strategic importance in the U.S. supply chain revolution cannot be overstated. The company’s Round Top deposit, which has successfully extracted gallium and heavy rare earth concentrates, positions it to supply critical materials for both civilian and defense applications. Posts on X from users like @financefelix have called USA Rare Earth “the most undervalued play in America’s supply chain revolution,” citing its potential to capitalize on the growing demand for rare earths in EVs, wind turbines, and defense systems.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. “USA Rare Earth is well-positioned to benefit from the push for domestic supply chains, but execution is everything,” said Sarah Thompson, a metals and mining analyst at Bernstein Research. “The MOUs are a strong signal of demand, but investors should monitor construction progress and the company’s ability to scale production.” The absence of debt and a healthy cash reserve provide a buffer, but the company’s path to profitability will depend on its ability to deliver on its ambitious timeline.
Geopolitical and Economic Context
The surge in customer interest comes against a backdrop of heightened U.S.-China tensions over critical minerals. Recent export restrictions from China have driven up rare earth prices, creating opportunities for domestic producers like USA Rare Earth. The Biden administration’s focus on securing critical supply chains, coupled with incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, has provided tailwinds for the company. Additionally, the Department of Defense has expressed interest in domestic rare earth suppliers to reduce reliance on foreign sources for military applications, further boosting USA Rare Earth’s strategic relevance.
The company’s progress also aligns with broader market trends. The global rare earth magnet market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.5% through 2030, driven by demand for EVs and renewable energy technologies. USA Rare Earth’s ability to secure contracts before production begins positions it to capture a significant share of this market, particularly as Western companies seek alternatives to Chinese suppliers.
As USA Rare Earth approaches its Q1 2026 production milestone, the company faces a pivotal year. The successful commissioning of the Stillwater facility could cement its position as a leader in the U.S. rare earth industry, while any setbacks could erode investor confidence. The 12 MOUs and ongoing discussions with over 70 companies signal strong market demand, but execution will be key to translating this interest into revenue.
For now, the market’s enthusiasm is palpable, with USAR shares reflecting the potential of a company at the forefront of a critical industry. As the U.S. seeks to rebuild its rare earth supply chain, USA Rare Earth’s progress offers a glimpse of what’s possible—but also a reminder of the challenges ahead in a high-stakes, geopolitically charged market.
Grayscale urges U.S. investors to push for spot bitcoin ETF. (Bloomberg)
Bitcoin has once again shattered expectations, surging to an all-time high of $118,872.85 early Friday morning as institutional investors piled into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at a record pace. The flagship digital asset was last trading around $117,955.25, up nearly 4% on the day, according to Coin Metrics.
The rally, which reignited after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes hinted at potential shifts in monetary policy, marks the first new record for bitcoin since May 22 and adds further momentum to what has already been a historic year for digital assets.
The spark behind the latest rally came from Thursday’s ETF data, which showed $1.18 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs — the largest single-day total of 2025, according to data from SoSoValue. Simultaneously, Ether ETFs pulled in $383.1 million, their second-highest day of inflows ever.
“This is a clear sign that institutional confidence in crypto is accelerating,” said Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research. “Bitcoin’s surge is being driven not by retail hype, but by professional money managers allocating large sums via regulated vehicles.”
Thielen also noted that incoming monetary policy decisions — especially the potential departure of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — have encouraged investors to lean bullish. “It’s expected that whoever leads the Fed next will be more dovish,” he said, referring to recent Trump administration hints about Powell’s job security.
Traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate cut later this year. The minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting showed a split among policymakers, with some leaning toward easing rates to support economic growth, especially amid rising concerns over the ballooning federal deficit.
The proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" — a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan expected to further expand the deficit — is seen by crypto bulls as a tailwind for bitcoin, which many view as a hedge against fiat currency debasement.
“There’s a structural macro narrative that supports bitcoin here,” Thielen said. “As the budget deficit expands and dovish policies gain favor, it strengthens the case for bitcoin as a hard asset.”
Adding fuel to the fire, the sharp rally triggered a massive short squeeze. Over the past 24 hours, $550 million in bitcoin short positions were liquidated, alongside $195 million in ether shorts, according to data from Coinglass.
When short-sellers are forced to cover their positions, they must buy back the asset — in this case, bitcoin — contributing to rapid price spikes.
“This is classic momentum-driven covering,” said a senior derivatives analyst at a Wall Street crypto trading desk. “Once key resistance broke above $114K, it triggered automated liquidations that catapulted us into price discovery territory.”
Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, also joined the party, surging 6% on the day and over 21% on the week, reclaiming the $3,000 level for the first time since February.
“Institutions are not only rotating into bitcoin,” said the analyst. “They’re using ETFs to diversify into the Ethereum ecosystem as regulatory clarity improves and Ethereum’s role in financial infrastructure becomes more widely accepted.”
While bitcoin is on pace for a nearly 10% weekly gain, its best week since late April, some traders are urging caution ahead of a typically quiet summer period.
“Macro events tend to slow down during the summer,” Thielen noted. “Long-only equity investors also start de-risking around this time, so momentum might stall unless we get a major catalyst.”
That catalyst could come at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting at the end of July, where markets will be looking for signs of a dovish pivot or confirmation of Powell’s future.
Since April 17, when ETF inflows began to sharply accelerate — coinciding with Trump’s public questioning of Powell’s leadership — total inflows into bitcoin ETFs have reached nearly $16 billion, underscoring the scale of institutional participation.
The S&P 500 on Thursday flirted with closing at an all-time high, vying to complete a whirlwind roundtrip that saw the benchmark US stock index shed and then regain roughly $9.8 trillion in market value across just four months.
The S&P 500 has been on a roller coaster ride this year as President Donald Trump’s trade policy has jolted markets.
The S&P 500 hit its last record high on February 19 before dropping as low as 18.9% by early April as tariff confusion rocked markets.
The index has soared more than 23% since hitting its low point on April 8, in what has been a remarkable come back from the precipice of a bear market.
US stocks were higher on Thursday. The Dow closed higher by 404 points, or 0.94%. The broader S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.97%.
The S&P 500 briefly rose above its February record high during trading but fell below that level by the closing bell. The index needed to finish the day with a gain of 0.86% or more to officially notch a record high.
The Nasdaq on Thursday briefly rose above its previous record in December but similarly finished below the mark needed to notch a record high. The tech-heavy index dropped into a bear market in early April before surging into a new bull market and gaining 32%.
Stocks had pushed higher on Thursday amid a flurry of economic data, including a downward revision to how much the economy contracted in the first quarter.
That revised data is “backward looking,” and markets were higher on Thursday because they have already priced in the turmoil from earlier this year, Paul Stanley, chief investment officer at Granite Bay Wealth Management, said in an email.
“The market is betting on continued progress on trade and a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East is giving investors confidence,” Stanley said.
While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recovered, the Dow is still 3.75% away from its record high set in December. The Dow this year has been weighed down by stocks like UnitedHealth Group (UNH), which is down 40%.
A $9.8 trillion recovery
At its low on April 8, the S&P 500 had shed $9.8 trillion in market value since its record high on February 19, according to FactSet data. The index is set to recover all of that market value as it tests a new record high.
Wall Street analysts are mixed on whether the S&P 500 can grind higher, or whether its return to record highs means there’s more downside to come.
As tensions in the Middle East have settled, the focus returns to Trump’s agenda. Lawmakers hope to deliver the president’s budget bill to his desk by July 4, and his administration’s deadline for trade deals is July 9.
“Meaningful progress on any of the two matters can bolster equities to fresh records,” José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in a note.
Investors in coming weeks will be focused on how tariff rates ultimately settle and whether Trump’s trade policy might reignite inflation.
“It would help stocks if we were to see a narrative shift from a focus on tariff, trade policy and geopolitics to company fundamentals,” Carol Schleif, chief market strategist, BMO Private Wealth, said in a note.
Despite the rally, the ratio of bullish versus bearish outlooks for the market remains below the historical average, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said in a note.
“That suggests more upside for the stock market since many investors remain wary and are not overly bullish,” Yardeni said.
“Greed” was the sentiment driving the market on Thursday, according to CNN’s Fear and Greed index. It was the highest reading on the index in two weeks.
Dollar stumbles to three-year low
The US dollar on Thursday dropped to its lowest level since February 2022 after a report by the Wall Street Journal that Trump plans to announce his pick for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor as early as this fall.
Powell’s term ends in May 2026, meaning there would effectively be a “shadow” Fed chair in the months before his term expires.
The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against six major foreign currencies, was down 0.45% as of the afternoon.
“A candidate who is perceived as being more open to lowering rates in line with President Trump’s demands would reinforce the US dollar’s current weakening trend,” Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said in a note.
The dollar index has tumbled nearly 10% this year. The euro and British pound this year have both hit their highest levels against the dollar in four years.
Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, told The NYBudgets that concerns about the Fed’s independence have been one of the contributing factors to the dollar’s broad decline this year.
“One of the key foundations of the strong dollar, of the dollar as a dominant currency globally, is to have an independent central bank,” Pesole said. “So, if [global investors] feel there is greater influence of politics into the Fed’s decisions, then they are pricing in a greater risk for the dollar.”
Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, said in a note that Trump announcing Powell’s successor is a “terrible idea,” as it would be “sure to annoy and confuse the financial markets if there are two Fed chairs.”
“The damage to the Fed’s independence would be considerable if Trump becomes a monetary back-seat driver, second-guessing Fed policies this fall,” Valliere said.
SYDNEY — Macquarie Group Ltd. is hitting pause on major divestments from its renewable energy portfolio as global market volatility continues to cloud valuations and temper investor appetite. The Australian financial giant, one of the world’s largest infrastructure investors, signaled during its fiscal 2025 earnings announcement that it will take a “disciplined and patient” approach before unloading further renewable energy assets.
The decision comes despite a robust performance from Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), which posted a 33% increase in annual profit, driven by higher performance fees, steady base management fees, and a growing pipeline of infrastructure mandates. Group-wide, Macquarie reported a full-year profit of A$5.4 billion (approx. $3.5 billion USD), largely in line with analyst expectations.
Macquarie had been expected to divest several high-profile renewable energy holdings this year—including stakes in wind and solar platforms across Europe, North America, and Asia—but said current market conditions are “not conducive” to achieving fair value.
“While we remain committed to recycling capital, we will only do so when market conditions support optimal outcomes for our investors and shareholders,” said Macquarie CEO Shemara Wikramanayake during Friday’s earnings call. “The volatility in interest rates, policy uncertainty, and inflationary pressure on construction costs are causing significant dislocations in asset pricing.”
Industry observers have noted that the renewable energy sector, once red-hot, has cooled in recent quarters as higher rates have increased the cost of capital and compressed valuations. Investors are also more cautious amid delays in grid connections, permitting hurdles, and inconsistent government incentives across markets.
Despite the strategic pause in divestments, Macquarie’s asset management business remains a powerhouse. MAM reported A$2.1 billion in annual profit, up 33% year-over-year, supported by:
AUM Growth: Assets under management reached A$910 billion, bolstered by fundraising across infrastructure and green energy funds.
Strong Mandates: Macquarie secured multiple new mandates from sovereign wealth funds and pension clients seeking to increase exposure to climate-aligned investments.
Performance Fees: Realizations from select mature assets—mainly in digital infrastructure and logistics—contributed to outsized performance fee revenue.
“Long-duration investors are still backing the energy transition, but they’re more selective,” said Asha Kapoor, infrastructure analyst at AMP Capital. “Macquarie is wise to wait for a more stable pricing environment before executing exits.”
Macquarie’s renewables platform spans more than 50 countries, with projects ranging from offshore wind farms in Taiwan to solar installations in Texas and Chile. The firm has also been a leading investor in hydrogen infrastructure and battery storage.
Among the assets originally rumored to be up for sale were:
A controlling stake in Cero Generation, a European solar developer.
Interests in Blueleaf Energy, focused on Southeast Asia.
Select North American onshore wind assets, held via partnerships with local developers.
Instead of rushing to sell, Macquarie is leaning into operations and value creation. Wikramanayake emphasized the group’s focus on “development-led growth” and “platform build-out,” with active investments continuing across key climate and energy security themes.
The broader renewables market has faced headwinds in recent quarters. The IEA cut its 2025 global renewables deployment forecast by 5%, citing permitting delays and input cost pressures. In the U.S., rising Treasury yields and Inflation Reduction Act implementation delays have added uncertainty, while European markets have seen policy rollbacks and auction failures.
Against this backdrop, Macquarie is choosing to bide its time.
“The opportunity set hasn’t disappeared—it’s just temporarily mispriced,” said Rory Bell, a partner at Macquarie Green Investment Group. “We’re not in the business of forced exits. Our investors expect discipline, not haste.”
Looking ahead, Macquarie says it will continue to originate and grow clean energy platforms globally, supported by $25 billion in dry powder across its infrastructure and energy funds. The firm’s upcoming secondaries strategy may also provide liquidity without requiring outright asset sales.
Meanwhile, the group remains open to divestitures when market sentiment rebounds, possibly later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on macro conditions.
“We remain optimistic about long-term fundamentals in the energy transition,” Wikramanayake said. “But this is a cycle that requires patience. Our approach has always been to take the long view—and that hasn’t changed.”
NEW YORK — A new player has entered the alternative investment scene. Renown Capital Partners, a freshly launched private equity firm spun out of hedge fund heavyweight Moore Capital Management, is aiming to raise $500 million for its debut fund, according to people familiar with the matter.
The firm, founded by a team of Moore veterans, has already secured an anchor commitment from its former parent, Moore Capital, as it looks to establish itself in the competitive world of middle-market private equity investing. The debut fund, Renown Capital Partners Fund I, will target control investments in North American companies across sectors such as financial services, business services, healthcare, and technology-enabled platforms.
Renown Capital was formed earlier this year by former Moore Capital dealmakers seeking to pivot from public markets to long-term private capital strategies. The move comes amid a broader shift within the hedge fund community, where firms are increasingly spinning off private investment units to capitalize on more stable, fee-predictable structures.
Moore Capital, founded by legendary trader Louis Bacon in 1989, was once among the most influential global macro hedge funds. While Moore largely wound down its flagship fund operations in 2019, it continued to invest through internal strategies and support new ventures. Renown Capital is the latest beneficiary of that pivot, receiving both capital and operational support from the firm.
“Renown is leveraging the deep research, risk discipline, and global insights of Moore while building a fresh identity focused on private, long-term value creation,” said a person familiar with the firm’s launch.
Renown’s leadership team is expected to focus on investments in companies with enterprise values ranging from $100 million to $500 million, seeking to take majority ownership positions and drive operational improvements. The fund will favor founder-led businesses in need of growth capital, succession planning, or digital transformation.
Sources say the firm plans to differentiate itself with a “hands-on” model, bringing in operating partners early and focusing on sectors where the team has deep domain knowledge, particularly in fintech, specialty finance, and tech-enabled services.
“Our edge is the convergence of rigorous macroeconomic insight with private equity execution,” said one founding partner, requesting anonymity due to fundraising constraints. “We’re looking at companies that sit at the crossroads of structural trends—aging populations, automation, and digital financial infrastructure.”
The launch of Renown comes at a time when the private equity fundraising environment is highly selective. Institutional limited partners (LPs) have pulled back on commitments amid a backlog of unexited assets and capital call delays, but first-time funds with pedigreed teams and credible backers are still finding traction.
“Spinouts from legacy hedge funds or private equity platforms with a proven edge continue to command attention,” said Rachel Stein, managing director at an LP advisory firm in New York. “The Moore Capital affiliation helps Renown stand out in a crowded market.”
Renown’s target of $500 million is considered ambitious but achievable, with several family offices, pensions, and endowments reportedly in preliminary discussions. The fund expects a first close by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Renown Capital joins a growing list of hedge-fund spinouts seeking success in private markets. Similar transitions include Citadel alumni forming GrowthCurve Capital and former Viking Global professionals launching Haveli Investments.
The shift reflects a broader realignment in asset management, as investors seek more stable returns and longer-dated exposure in a volatile public market environment. Private equity has become a favored path for institutional allocators, particularly in sectors where innovation outpaces public market efficiency.
While Renown has yet to make its first investment, sources say the firm is actively evaluating multiple deals and intends to announce a platform acquisition by early 2026. The firm currently has a staff of 12, including partners, investment professionals, and operating advisors, and is headquartered in midtown Manhattan.
Moore Capital’s support extends beyond capital: it includes administrative infrastructure, risk systems, and access to a network of global advisors. However, Renown is said to be fully independent in investment decision-making and branding.
“We’re building something with the DNA of Moore but designed for a different cycle and a different asset class,” said one partner.
TaskUs, Inc. (NASDAQ: TASK), a global provider of outsourced digital services and customer experience support, announced Monday that it will be taken private in an all-cash transaction led by its co-founders and an affiliate of private equity giant Blackstone. The deal, valued at approximately $2 billion, will mark the end of TaskUs’s nearly four-year run as a public company.
Under the terms of the agreement, TaskUs co-founders Bryce Maddock (CEO) and Jaspar Weir (President), together with Blackstone’s Core Private Equity Group — which already holds a controlling interest — will acquire all outstanding publicly traded shares at $15.75 per share. That price represents a 27% premium over the company’s 30-day volume-weighted average as of Friday.
The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2025, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions, including approval by a majority of TaskUs shareholders not affiliated with Blackstone or the management team.
TaskUs, founded in 2008, went public in June 2021 during the height of investor enthusiasm for tech-enabled outsourcing firms. Initially valued at nearly $3 billion, the company saw its shares climb as high as $33 before declining amid broader tech-sector volatility and cost-cutting across digital-first businesses.
The move to go private, according to executives, will provide TaskUs with greater flexibility to execute its long-term strategy without the short-term pressure of quarterly earnings expectations.
“Taking TaskUs private will allow us to reinvest in our people, technology, and global operations with a focus on long-term innovation,” said Maddock in a press release. “We believe this transaction is the best path forward for all stakeholders — our employees, clients, and investors.”
Blackstone, which first invested in TaskUs in 2018, will increase its ownership through this buyout via its Core Private Equity platform, which focuses on long-duration investments in market-leading businesses. TaskUs was among the first digital outsourcing companies in Blackstone’s portfolio and is seen as a strategic fit within its growing services and technology verticals.
“TaskUs operates at the intersection of AI-enabled services and digital transformation,” said Sachin Bavishi, Managing Director at Blackstone. “We remain confident in the long-term trajectory of the company and are excited to deepen our partnership.”
Industry analysts say the transaction reflects a broader trend of private equity firms doubling down on tech-adjacent assets amid rising interest in AI, automation, and scalable offshore labor models.
TaskUs has built a reputation for supporting high-growth technology companies with digital customer experience, content moderation, and back-office support, with key delivery centers in the Philippines, India, and Latin America.
The company reported $920 million in revenue in 2024, up 7% year-over-year, though margins have come under pressure due to wage inflation and client budget reductions. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $165 million last year, reflecting a 17.9% margin.
Shares of TaskUs jumped more than 25% in premarket trading Monday on news of the deal, bringing its year-to-date gains to 32%.
As part of the transaction, TaskUs’s board formed a special committee of independent directors to evaluate the offer. The committee unanimously approved the transaction, with legal advisers provided by Sullivan & Cromwell LLP and financial guidance from Centerview Partners.
The Future: AI + Human Support
Analysts expect the company to continue investing in automation-enhanced customer support, a fast-growing niche where artificial intelligence augments human workers rather than replacing them.
“TaskUs has proven it can help some of the most innovative companies scale with quality support,” said Rana Ghosh, an enterprise services analyst at Raymond James. “As AI transforms the customer experience landscape, the ability to combine human empathy with intelligent automation will be critical — and TaskUs is well-positioned in that space.”
Though the company has faced criticism in the past related to content moderation practices and employee wellness in high-pressure environments, it has also been praised for its investments in mental health resources and global training initiatives.
Apollo Global Management (NYSE: APO) says it is directing over $100 billion of capital into industries reshaped by trade friction. In a Q2 2024 investor briefing, the firm highlighted a multibillion-dollar allocation across private equity, credit and infrastructure to capitalize on reshoring trends, supply-chain reorientation and commodity arbitrage amid U.S.–China decoupling and new green levies. Apollo executives note that “private assets” can “offer a measure of stability during times of turbulence, such as the current stretch driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs”. In effect, Apollo treats tariffs not merely as costs but as catalysts for value – redeploying capital from affected sectors to advantaged ones.
Investment breakdown: Apollo says roughly $28 billion is earmarked for North American reshoring infrastructure. This includes semiconductor fabs and EV battery plants supported by the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act, and new duties (e.g. U.S. tariffs on Chinese steel) that improve domestic project economics. Another $19 billion goes to energy and metals logistics – for example, warehouse and transport assets that can arbitrage carbon-border taxes and critical-mineral import curbs. A further $14 billion is set aside for supply-chain finance: credit lines and working-capital support for companies moving manufacturing out of China into Southeast Asia or Mexico (reducing tariff exposure to roughly 4% vs. 19% on Chinese imports).
Apollo co-President Scott Kleinman puts it bluntly: “Tariffs are creating the most significant capital reallocation since the 2008 financial crisis.” His team views this shift as a once-in-a-decade rebalancing where firms must rebuild shorter, more secure supply chains.
Market Context: Rising Tariffs and Supply Shifts
Global tariff barriers are indeed on the rise. The U.S. now keeps duties on hundreds of billions of dollars of imports that average well above historical lows. For example, the Trump-era tariffs still cover over $300 billion of Chinese goods at rates from 7.5% up to 25%. And in 2024 the Biden administration approved further hikes: Chinese electric vehicles now face a 100% U.S. tariff, and solar panels 50%. New 25% duties also apply to certain medical supplies, lithium batteries and even China-made ship-to-shore cranes. (The U.S. now flatly bans EVs and advanced batteries from China, while quadrupling EV tariffs.) In short, import-tax burdens on high-value and strategic goods have jumped sharply (about double the 2016 level), reshaping sourcing economics.
The policy backdrop has spurred a massive supply-chain overhaul. Industry surveys suggest a large majority of leading companies have shifted production since 2022. For instance, a recent McKinsey survey found roughly 78% of Fortune-500 firms have at least partially diversified their supply bases away from China. Apollo itself has banked on this trend: it now controls a growing real estate footprint south of the U.S. border (reports note Apollo’s platform includes some 12 industrial parks in Mexico) to serve nearshoring. European green trade rules add to the mix – with planned carbon border tariffs reaching about $95 per ton of embedded CO₂ by 2030 – which further tilts advantage toward low-carbon supply hubs. Notably, Apollo’s commodity and resource portfolio returned 34% in 2023, underscoring the payoff from such policy-driven gaps.
Key Sectors in Focus
Semiconductors: Apollo is plowing roughly $12 billion into chip manufacturing. This includes equity stakes in established players (GlobalFoundries) and emerging firms (e.g. “VoltChip” start-ups). In June 2024 Apollo announced a near-$11 billion investment to take a 49% stake in Intel’s new fab in Ireland – effectively subsidizing part of Intel’s $18.4 billion buildout. Such deals are aimed at capturing government incentives (like CHIPS Act subsidies) and the U.S. drive to onshore cutting-edge chip capacity.
EV Materials: Apollo has allocated about $8 billion to critical battery raw materials. That includes projects in Chile and Canada to secure lithium and other inputs for North American EV supply chains. With tariffs and subsidies skewing autos’ geometry (e.g. U.S. duties on Chinese EVs, and local content bonuses under the Inflation Reduction Act), owning the upstream supply means higher margins.
Logistics and Industrial Real Estate: Some $6 billion is targeted at U.S.–Mexico warehousing and transport hubs. The thinking is that sprawling cross-border logistics parks will benefit from the southward shift of manufacturing. Apollo (through funds like its ACORE vehicle) has bulked up on industrial REITs and logistics portfolios. These assets serve goods coming in from Asia via alternative routes or from nearshore factories, and thus can charge rents that fully factor in tariff and friction premiums.
No strategy is without headwinds. Numerous policy and market risks could blunt the playbook. For example, U.S. Section 301 tariffs on China have already been challenged at the WTO (China’s case DS543), and Congress or a future administration might roll back some measures. Similarly, some U.S. “green” levies could be softened or delayed following domestic political pressures (e.g. EU election outcomes may force renegotiation of carbon rules). Even where plants are built, capacity might overshoot demand: Goldman Sachs warns that up to 40% of U.S. battery cell capacitycould lie idle by 2026 absent stronger end-market growth. On Apollo’s own books, the $45 billion credit portfolio is exposed to 9% coupon lending and an estimated 5.2% default probability in a slowing economy – a reminder that higher rates and tariffs could strain borrowers.
Some industry veterans counsel caution. As RBC Capital Markets strategist Gerard Cassidy tersely observes, “Betting on tariffs is betting on politics.” In other words, asset prices tied to trade policy must factor in the risk of political change, not just economic logic.
Apollo is not alone in chasing trade-tailwinds. Other large asset managers have also announced bold commitments. Blackstone has cited roughly $50 billion of investment plans in Europe and emerging markets (notably data centers and Indian renewables) that ride parallel decoupling trends. KKR recently unveiled a $30 billion logistics fund targeting U.S. fulfillment centers (leveraging the e-commerce surge and re-shored inventory). Brookfield has dedicated about $20 billion to critical minerals and renewable energy worldwide, anticipating commodity supply strains. The competition underscores that supply-chain resilience – whether through warehouses, fiber routes or power plants – is increasingly prized. As Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Slok puts it, “In a multipolar world, supply chain resilience is the new prime real estate.”
Apollo’s strategy treats tariffs not as mere externalities but as alpha-generating catalysts. By deliberately allocating capital to the beneficiaries of trade fragmentation – domestic fabs, alternative routes, and non-Chinese suppliers – Apollo aims to earn outsized returns so long as U.S.–China tensions and green trade frictions persist. The firm’s success hinges on the assumption that global supply chains will remain balkanized for years, rather than reverting quickly to pre-trade-war norms. If tariffs and subsidies indeed endure or deepen, Apollo’s repositioning could pay off handsomely. If not, or if demand falters, the strategy faces a stark test.
By the Numbers: Key metrics and targets mentioned above include 100% (new U.S. tariff on Chinese EVs); 50% (tariff on Chinese solar panels); 25% (tariff on ship-to-shore cranes); 17% (year-over-year AUM growth in Q1 2025); $785 billion (Apollo’s assets under management, Mar. 2025); $43 billion (new capital raised by Apollo in Q1 2025); 21% (year-on-year jump in Apollo’s fee revenue for Q1); $11 billion (Apollo’s announced investment in the Intel Ireland fab JV); and $300+ billion (approximate value of Chinese imports still under U.S. tariffsreuters.com).
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