Tag: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

  • Judges Reject Trump Request to Dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook

    Judges Reject Trump Request to Dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook

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    Dr. Lisa DeNell Cook, of Michigan, nominated to be a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, speaks before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 3, 2022. © REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/Pool/File Photo

    WASHINGTON — In a significant blow to President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the Federal Reserve, a federal appeals court on Monday night rejected the administration’s emergency bid to remove Governor Lisa Cook from the central bank’s Board of Governors, upholding a lower court’s temporary block on her termination. The 2-1 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ensures that Cook, the first Black woman to serve as a Fed governor, can participate in this week’s crucial Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to vote on a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate amid signs of a cooling labor market.

    The ruling comes at a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy, as the Fed grapples with inflation pressures exacerbated by Trump’s tariff policies and a weakening job market. Cook, appointed by President Joe Biden in 2022 and reappointed in 2023 for a term extending to January 2038, launched her legal challenge on August 28 after Trump fired her on August 25. The dismissal was based on allegations from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte that Cook made false claims on mortgage applications in 2021—prior to her Senate confirmation—potentially securing more favorable loan terms by misrepresenting properties in Michigan, Georgia, and Massachusetts as primary residences.

    U.S. District Judge Jia M. Cobb had granted Cook’s request for a preliminary injunction on September 9, finding that the removal likely violated the Federal Reserve Act’s “for cause” provision and her Fifth Amendment due process rights. Cobb noted that the allegations, which predate Cook’s tenure, did not constitute sufficient grounds for dismissal, describing them as raising “many serious questions of first impression.” Documents reviewed by Reuters indicate that Cook declared a Georgia property as a vacation home, not a primary residence, undercutting Pulte’s claims, while Michigan property tax authorities confirmed no rules were broken on a home she listed as primary.

    The Trump administration swiftly appealed, arguing in briefs that the president has broad discretion to remove Fed governors for cause, including pre-office conduct that reflects a “lack of care in financial matters” inconsistent with public trust. Lawyers for the White House contended that courts should not second-guess such decisions, warning that blocking the removal would “diminish” the Fed’s integrity. They sought an emergency stay to oust Cook before the FOMC’s two-day meeting starting Tuesday, emphasizing the need to ensure governors are “competent and capable of projecting confidence into markets.”

    Cook’s legal team fired back in a Saturday filing, urging the appeals court to deny the stay and highlighting the broader implications for Fed independence. “A stay by this court would therefore be the first signal from the courts that our system of government is no longer able to guarantee the independence of the Federal Reserve,” her attorneys argued, warning that it could allow the president to fire board members on “flimsy pretexts,” ending the era of central bank autonomy and risking dire economic consequences. They stressed that the government provided no meaningful notice or opportunity for Cook to respond to the allegations, a point the appeals court majority echoed in its order.

    In the majority opinion, joined by Circuit Judge J. Michelle Childs—both Biden appointees—Circuit Judge Bradley N. Garcia wrote that Cook’s due process claim is “very likely meritorious,” as the administration “does not dispute that it provided Cook no meaningful notice or opportunity to respond.” The judges reasoned that granting the stay would “upend, not preserve,” the status quo, given Cook’s continuous service, and that her strong likelihood of success on the merits warranted denial. Circuit Judge Gregory G. Katsas, a Trump appointee, dissented, arguing the “equitable balance” favored the government due to the heightened interest in ensuring Fed competence.

    White House spokesman Kush Desai responded defiantly Tuesday morning, stating to Barron’s that “The President lawfully removed Lisa Cook for cause. The Administration will appeal this decision and looks forward to ultimate victory on the issue.” The administration has until hours before the FOMC meeting to seek emergency relief from the U.S. Supreme Court, a path it has signaled it will pursue. This marks the first attempted “for cause” removal of a Fed governor in the central bank’s 111-year history, testing long-standing protections against political interference enshrined in the 1913 Federal Reserve Act, which shields governors from at-will dismissal but does not define “for cause” or removal procedures.

    The case underscores Trump’s aggressive push to influence monetary policy, including public berating of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates aggressively enough despite inflation concerns. The Fed has held rates steady since late 2024 but signaled a potential cut last month amid hiring weakness; economists now anticipate a reduction to about 4.1%, which could lower borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and businesses over time. Cook’s lawyers noted she has continued her duties during the litigation, and the Fed itself has remained neutral, requesting a swift resolution and pledging to abide by court orders.

    Complicating matters, the Senate narrowly confirmed Trump’s nominee Stephen Miran—current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers—to a vacated Fed board seat on Monday night in a 48-47 party-line vote, meaning he will also join this week’s meeting. Miran’s addition could tilt the board toward Trump’s preferences, but Cook’s retention preserves a Biden-era voice in deliberations.

    Beyond the immediate rate decision, the dispute has ramifications for the Fed’s independence, seen as essential for controlling inflation and stabilizing markets. The Supreme Court, in a May ruling on other agency removals, distinguished the Fed as a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity” with singular historical traditions, potentially bolstering Cook’s position. Meanwhile, the Justice Department has launched a criminal mortgage fraud probe into Cook, issuing grand jury subpoenas in Georgia and Michigan, though no charges have been filed and Cook denies wrongdoing, calling the allegations a pretext for her policy stances.

    As the legal battle escalates, markets await the FOMC’s outcome, with investors eyeing how this high-stakes clash might influence the central bank’s credibility and the broader economy under Trump’s second term.

  • Trump has decided against selecting Scott Bessent to lead the Federal Reserve

    Trump has decided against selecting Scott Bessent to lead the Federal Reserve

    WASHINGTON, D.C. — In a move with deep implications for U.S. monetary policy and global financial markets, President Donald J. Trump announced on Tuesday that he has officially ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a contender for the next Federal Reserve chair, narrowing the shortlist to four candidates. Among the top names are Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and two other unnamed individuals—one widely believed to be current Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

    The decision coincides with the early resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, a Biden appointee, which Trump called a “pleasant surprise.” Kugler’s exit provides Trump an immediate opening to install a political and economic ally onto the Fed’s Board of Governors, an opportunity he appears eager to seize ahead of a critical rate decision by the central bank next month.

    Kugler announced she would step down by Friday, cutting her term short to return to academia at Georgetown University. Her departure gives Trump not only an opportunity to shape the near-term direction of Fed policy but also the chance to potentially elevate her short-term replacement into the top job at the Federal Reserve once Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026.

    In an interview with CNBC earlier Tuesday, Trump hinted at using the vacancy to install someone who could both serve the remainder of Kugler’s term and become Powell’s successor—effectively giving his pick months of influence over monetary policy before facing full Senate confirmation for the 14-year term.

    “A lot of people say, when you do that, why don’t you just pick the person who is going to head up the Fed?” Trump said. “That’s a possibility too.”

    The exclusion of Scott Bessent, the current Treasury Secretary and a prominent market figure, narrows Trump’s Fed chair options. Trump said Bessent preferred to remain at Treasury, removing himself from contention.

    Trump now appears focused on a smaller circle of candidates with strong ideological alignment and past affiliations with his administration. Kevin Hassett, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and consistent Fed critic, are now considered leading contenders.

    Economists see this narrowing as an attempt to cement Trump’s influence over the Fed and steer it toward a more dovish monetary stance—particularly as he continues to criticize Chair Powell for not cutting interest rates since Trump returned to office in January.

    Investors are already anticipating a rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17, especially after last week’s disappointing July jobs report. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut has surged to 90.4%, up dramatically from 63.3% just a week ago.

    The July nonfarm payroll report, released last Friday, showed only 73,000 jobs added, far below the 110,000 estimated by economists surveyed by LSEG. In addition, downward revisions of 258,000 jobs across May and June further confirmed a weakening labor market.

    While Powell has remained cautious, citing inflation still above the 2% target, market participants now view a rate cut as all but inevitable—especially with the political pressure intensifying from the White House.

    Trump’s dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer—reportedly over dissatisfaction with job numbers—has added fuel to concerns about politicization of U.S. data institutions. The firing, which came the same day as Kugler’s resignation, has drawn sharp criticism from economists and policy observers who warn of a deterioration in the credibility of official economic data.

    Michael Strain of the conservative American Enterprise Institute warned:

    “If you appoint somebody perceived to be a lackey as the Fed chair, take the BLS freakout and multiply it by 1,000.”

    Indeed, skepticism about Trump’s intentions has only grown with his pattern of clashing with Powell, his handpicked Fed chair during his first term, whom he later turned against for not being more aggressive on rate cuts.

    The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% through five meetings this year, despite growing evidence of a cooling economy. Inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose to 2.6% in June, with core PCE (excluding food and energy) increasing to 2.8%, casting doubts on how quickly the Fed could pivot to an easing stance.

    But the weak jobs data appears to have tipped the scales in favor of a September cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, reportedly among the top four Fed chair candidates, dissented in the July policy vote, arguing that the inflation risks from Trump’s tariffs were “modest,” and that rate cuts should begin sooner due to broader economic softening.

    By selecting Kugler’s interim replacement now—possibly someone who would later be nominated as chair—Trump gains a chance to “test-drive” his preferred monetary policy approach, influencing Fed decision-making in the run-up to the 2026 election cycle. However, any permanent appointment would require Senate confirmation, a process that could become contentious, especially if Democrats regain control of the chamber.

    James Fishback, CEO of Azoria investment firm and former advisor in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is reportedly among those who have expressed interest in a temporary Fed appointment. While the White House has not confirmed his candidacy, sources indicate materials were requested from Fishback earlier this week.

    With Trump once again reshaping America’s most influential economic institution, Wall Street and central bankers worldwide are watching closely. The combination of leadership reshuffling, data skepticism, and intensifying political pressure is turning the usually sober world of monetary policy into high-stakes drama.

    Whether the eventual nominee is Hassett, Warsh, Waller—or another surprise pick—Trump appears poised to install a Fed chair more aligned with his aggressive pro-growth, low-interest-rate vision. What that means for inflation, employment, and economic stability remains uncertain.

    But one thing is clear: the independence of the Federal Reserve—long seen as a cornerstone of U.S. economic credibility—is facing its most serious test in decades.