Tag: Exclusive

Prediction Platforms Kalshi and Polymarket Seek Funding at Nearly $20 Billion Valuation
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are discussing potential fundraising rounds that could value each company at about $20 billion.
If completed at that level, the deals would roughly double their valuations from late 2025. The discussions remain early and may not lead to finalized investments, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts tied to real-world events, with categories including sports, politics, elections, and more. Traders buy and sell those contracts based on what they think will happen. Essentially, it allows users to monetize information on world events.
Kalshi already operates in the United States under approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation in December last year.

The company recently reached an annualized revenue run rate of about $1.5 billion, according to the WSJ report citing people familiar with the business.
Polymarket, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, was valued at $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange agreed to invest up to $2 billion in the platform.
None of the platforms immediately responded to requests for comments from CoinDesk.
Both platforms are leading in the sector, as prediction markets have become the latest hype for traders.
According to a Dune dashboard, open interest on Kalshi is hovering over $400 million, while on Polymarket it’s at $360 million. The third-largest market, Opinion, is at $36 million.
Similarly, the weekly notional volume (total underlying value of all prediction contracts traded) on Polymarket was $1.9 billion last week, and on Kalshi, $1.87 billion, according to Dune data. Opinion saw weekly volume of $150 million, down from over $1.2 billion ahead of its token launch.
The sector has become so popular that companies, including Coinbase and Robinhood, have entered the prediction market. In fact, Wall Street giants Nasdaq and Cboe recently said they are considering rolling out yes-or-no “binary bets” for traders on the direction of traditional markets, similar to prediction-market betting.
March 7, 2026
ChatGPT Maker Considered Warning Police About Canada Mass Shooting Suspect
TORONTO—ChatGPT-maker OpenAI said Friday it considered last year alerting Canadian police about the activities of a person who months later committed one of the worst school shootings in the country’s history.

OpenAI said last June the company identified the account of Jesse Van Rootselaar via abuse detection efforts for “furtherance of violent activities.”

The San Francisco tech company said it considered whether to refer the account the Royal Canadian Mounted Police but determined at the time that the account activity did not meet a threshold for referral to law enforcement. OpenAI banned the account in June 2025 for violating its usage policy.

The 18-year-old killed eight people in a remote part of British Columbia last week and died from a self-inflicted gun shot wound.

OpenAI said the threshold for referring a user to law enforcement is whether the case involves an imminent and credible risk of serious physical harm to others. The company said it did not identify credible or imminent planning. The Wall Street Journal first reported OpenAI’s revelation.

OpenAI said that, after learning of the school shooting, employees reached out to the RCMP with information on the individual and their use of ChatGPT.
“Our thoughts are with everyone affected by the Tumbler Ridge tragedy. We proactively reached out to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police with information on the individual and their use of ChatGPT, and we’ll continue to support their investigation,” an OpenAI spokesperson said.

The RCMP said Van Rootselaar first killed her mother and stepbrother at the family home before attacking the nearby school. Van Rootselaar had a history of mental health contacts with police.

The motive for the shooting remains unclear.

The town of 2,700 people in the Canadian Rockies is more than 1,000 kilometers northeast of Vancouver, near the provincial border with Alberta. Police said the victims included a 39-year-old teaching assistant and five students, ages 12 to 13.

The attack was Canada’s deadliest rampage since 2020, when a gunman in Nova Scotia killed 13 people and set fires that left another nine dead.
February 21, 2026
Pentagon Flags Alibaba and BYD Over Alleged Chinese Military Links
The Pentagon has concluded that Alibaba and BYD should be added to a list of companies with alleged connections to the Chinese military, two months before Donald Trump is expected to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing.
The defence department posted an updated “Chinese Military Companies” list to the Federal Register on Friday morning. However, in a move that has led to confusion, the PDF was abruptly removed from the site following a request from the Pentagon, which did not provide any explanation. A defence official said the Pentagon would release the new list next week.
The decision to include Alibaba on what is formally known as the 1260H list comes three months after The Financial Times reported that US intelligence agencies believed the ecommerce giant posed a threat to national security.
The Pentagon will also add BYD, the world’s biggest electric-car maker, and Baidu, the search engine, to the 1260H list, which is mandated by Congress. While US-China trade tensions have eased since Trump and Xi met in South Korea in October, the addition of the marquee Chinese groups to the list will trigger fresh tension ahead of their summit in April.
In another point of friction, The Financial Times reported last week that the Trump administration is compiling a package of arms sales for Taiwan which could total $20bn after announcing a record $11.1bn package in November. Craig Singleton, an expert on US-China relations at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think-tank, said the addition of the Chinese companies to the list was “mutually assured disruption in practice”.
“Even as tariff threats have cooled, tech, capital and security frictions keep heating up,” he said. “Releasing the list weeks before a leader-level summit shows deliberate compartmentalisation: stabilising trade talks while sustaining pressure in national security lanes.” Henrietta Levin, a US-China expert at the CSIS think-tank, said Beijing would be upset but the move was unlikely to derail the Trump-Xi summit.

“Chinese officials may lament how the administration is not doing enough to foster a ‘positive atmosphere’ ahead of the anticipated summit between Trump and Xi this spring,” Levin said. “But ultimately, Beijing is confident the results of this summit will favour Chinese interests, and they will not want to miss the opportunity to extract concessions from Trump.”
When the Pentagon makes a “Chinese Military Companies” designation, it signals that the US believes the groups have direct ties to the People’s Liberation Army or are involved in China’s military-civil fusion programme, which requires them to share technology with the Chinese military.
Inclusion on the Pentagon list does not have legal implications for most of the companies. But it creates reputational risk for them, particularly because it signals that the US may take punitive action in the future.
However, the Pentagon also put Chinese biotechnology company WuXi AppTec on the list, which will affect its operations in the US. Under the Biosecure Act, which was passed in December, the federal government is restricted from doing business with “biotechnology companies of concern”, which includes any entity on the 1260H list. But the act gives the government a five-year window to complete existing contracts and wind down arrangements with designated companies. The Pentagon does not publicly disclose many details about why a company has been added to the list.
But the China committee in the House of Representatives last year called for WuXi to be added, saying its management committee included members of the PLA’s Academy of Military Medical Sciences and PLA-run hospitals. WuXi AppTec contested its inclusion on the list. “We are not owned, controlled, or affiliated with any Chinese government agency or military institution. None of our board members or senior executive team has Chinese military or political party affiliation either,” the company said.
The Pentagon also added RoboSense, which makes AI-powered robotic technology, saying the Shenzhen-based group is a military-civil fusion contributor to the Chinese defence industrial base. It also included BOE Technology, a maker of display panels for computers and smartphones. John Moolenaar, the chair of the House China committee, in 2024 urged the Pentagon to add BOE to the list.
The defence department also removed two memory chipmakers — CXMT and YMTC — in an unexpected move. Michael Sobolik, a US-China expert at the Hudson Institute, said that given China’s commitment to military-civil fusion, it was unclear what would have changed to justify their removal.
“The reputational windfall for these companies could increase their chances of selling memory chips to American customers,” he said. “The administration is trying to break the nation’s reliance on China for critical minerals. Why would we risk opening up more dependencies?”
Alibaba is one of the highest-profile changes to the list. The NY Budgets reported in November that US intelligence believed it was providing technical support for Chinese military “operations” against targets in America.
According to a White House security memo, Alibaba also allegedly provides the Chinese government and PLA with access to customer data. Alibaba strongly rejected the allegations in the memo.
On Friday, Alibaba said there was “no basis” to conclude that it should be added to the list. “Alibaba is not a Chinese military company nor part of any military-civil fusion strategy. We will take all available legal action against attempts to misrepresent our company.”

Baidu said the Pentagon claim was “entirely baseless and no evidence has been produced that would prove otherwise”. It said it would “not hesitate to use all options available” to be removed from the list. BYD said any proposal to put it on the list was “completely unfounded”.
“BYD is not a Chinese military company, nor has it participated in any military-civil fusion strategy.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment about why the Pentagon list was abruptly removed from the Federal Register.
February 14, 2026
Teen Suspect in Canada Mass Shooting Had Troubled, ‘Nomadic’ Upbringing

Jesse Van Rootselaar in a photo released by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. (RCMP)
Police in Canada are still investigating the motives behind the actions of 18-year-old Jesse Van Rootelaar, the suspect in a recent violent incident, and how she managed to carry it out.
In Tumbler Ridge, a mining community with about 2,700 residents, details from police reports, court documents, and family statements are revealing a troubled upbringing for the teenager.
Jesse Strang was the birth name given by her mother, Jennifer Strang. Her biological father was Van Rootelaar, a man she hardly knew following her parents’ difficult separation. Although her father resided in the same town, they had minimal interaction.
Van Rootelaar left school around four years ago, according to officials.
In her adolescence, she became familiar to local law enforcement. She frequently visited the mental-health unit at the home she shared with her mother and younger siblings for assessments under the province’s mental health laws. However, she consistently returned home. At times, firearms stored in the house were confiscated by police and later returned upon petition from a resident.
Van Rootelaar is accused of using four weapons in Tuesday’s fatal attack, which claimed eight lives before she succumbed to a self-inflicted gunshot, authorities reported. Two of the weapons, thought to be the primary ones used, had never been seized by police previously and were unregistered. Locating their source and how Van Rootelaar acquired them remains a key focus for investigators.
A dedicated team is sifting through her online presence and digital history for insights into the reasons and planning behind the mass shooting, as well as examining her previous engagements with police and mental health experts, stated Royal Canadian Mounted Police Deputy Commissioner Dwayne McDonald.
The teen had consulted a gender transition specialist and posted a mirror selfie of her initial makeup attempt, expressing worries about her 6-foot stature’s proportions.
“Why can’t I be petit an smol?” she posted on Reddit.
Later that year, she shared that she “went crazy and burnt my house down” after a second attempt with psychedelic mushrooms, noting the dosage led to “dangerous psychosis.”
She hoped to discover the proper amount for a “positive experience in my life,” mentioning that electroconvulsive therapy and prescribed drugs hadn’t alleviated her mental health issues.
Her biological father, Justin Van Rootelaar, suggested a turbulent early life for the teen in a statement affirming their distant relationship, which he attributed to her mother.
“While that distance is the reality of our relationship, it does not lessen the heartbreak I feel for the pain that has been caused to innocent people and to the town we call home,” he told Canadian media on Friday.
As a child, Van Rootelaar’s life involved multiple relocations, court records indicate, as her mother frequently moved across the country: from Newfoundland on Canada’s eastern Atlantic coast, to Grand Cache, a small mountain town in western Alberta, and Powell River, a coastal area in southwestern British Columbia.
Around age 7 or 8, a then-pregnant Strang transported her across the country from British Columbia to Chamberlain, Newfoundland, against the father’s wishes. A judge labeled this as “reprehensible conduct” in court documents.
At that time, Van Rootelaar and her father had no relationship for “many years,” but they were starting to communicate via phone, per court records.
Some of Van Rootelaar’s online activity has surfaced. She developed a videogame simulating a mass shooting in a shopping mall on Roblox, the company confirmed. The simulation let a Roblox avatar select weapons and shoot other characters in a mall. It was viewable only by seven users via a separate developer app called Roblox Studio and was never released to the public. The company didn’t specify the creation date.
“We have removed the user account connected to this horrifying incident as well as any content associated with the suspect,” a Roblox spokesperson stated. “We are committed to fully supporting law enforcement in their investigation.”
Archived social media shows Van Rootelaar posting images of herself at a gun range, claiming to have made a bullet cartridge with a 3-D printer, and participating in online talks about YouTube videos by gun enthusiasts.
The trans woman also voiced concerns about transitioning and her interests in anime cartoons and illicit drugs, using “jesseboy347” as a social-media handle, according to a post on her mother’s Facebook page.
In 2023 Reddit posts, at age 15, she wrote in the r/trans forum that transitioning felt “super intimidating,” but she posted there.
The father, who hadn’t initially exercised all his parental rights, sought joint guardianship and requested he be consulted on parental decisions. The sparse relationship between father and child resulted from the mother’s “nomadic lifestyle,” British Columbia Supreme Court Judge Anthony Saunders noted.
Before Strang departed with the child, she texted her ex-partner: “We are moving to Newfoundland,” and “We told your lawyer that last week.” But she hadn’t informed the father exactly where or when she planned to relocate with their child, court documents reveal.
It’s uncertain when the mother returned the children.
Over the next decade, Van Rootelaar began interacting with local police due to mental health issues, and those encounters are now under review in the probe into Tuesday’s events, when police say she fatally shot her 39-year-old mother and 11-year-old half-brother at the family home. She then proceeded to Tumbler Ridge Secondary School, fatally shooting six people there—a teacher and five students—and critically injuring two others, police said. She ended her life as officers arrived at the school. Asked if she had been bullied at school, police said they didn’t know but noted she wasn’t currently enrolled as a student.
Amid the complex forensic evidence at both sites, one evident detail has surfaced, said Deputy Commissioner McDonald. Van Rootelaar didn’t seem to have a particular target in mind at the school and shot randomly, he said.
“This suspect was, for lack of a better term, hunting. They were prepared and engaging anybody and everybody they could come in contact with,” McDonald said.
February 14, 2026
Trump Leaves Republicans Uncertain as Midterm Outlook Grows Bleak
As the midterm elections draw closer, Republican strategists and candidates are growing increasingly frustrated with what they see as a lack of clear direction from President Donald Trump and his administration. With polls showing a darkening outlook for Republican prospects in November, many in the party are privately expressing concern about the mixed signals coming from the White House and what they perceive as a failure to deliver on core “America First” promises.
According to sources close to the White House, Trump’s approach to the midterms has been inconsistent at best. “Some days the president seems not to care,” one official told The Washington Post. “Republicans looking to the White House to lead in the face of the party’s dimming prospects for November’s midterms are facing a crucial hang-up: the president.”
This uncertainty comes at a critical time, with Republicans defending a narrow House majority and facing competitive Senate races in multiple states. The Cook Political Report rates 14 Republican-held House seats as toss-ups, while Democrats are defending only four. In January, Cook shifted 18 seats in the Democrats’ favor.
Broken Promises on Core Conservative Priorities
Beyond the strategic confusion, many grassroots conservatives are expressing disappointment with the Trump administration’s failure to deliver on key campaign promises that formed the foundation of the “America First” movement.
Immigration enforcement remains a major point of contention. Despite promises of “mass deportations,” ICE operations have focused primarily on what officials describe as the “worst of the worst” criminal aliens. This narrow approach has drawn criticism from conservative commentators who argue that illegal immigration is principally a crisis of quantity rather than quality.
“Systems buckle under the weight of accumulated foreign populations long before any immigrant commits a headline-grabbing felony,” notes an analysis in The American Conservative. “At mass levels, illegal immigration suppresses wages for American workers, especially those without college degrees, overwhelms schools and hospitals, and expands welfare systems quietly and permanently.”
The administration has also failed to address concerns about H1B visa programs, which critics argue displace American workers in high-tech fields. Despite campaign rhetoric about putting American workers first, the Trump administration has maintained and in some cases expanded these programs, drawing criticism from conservative immigration restrictionists.
Foreign policy continues to prioritize Israel over American interests. Trump’s approach to the Middle East has drawn particular criticism from conservatives who argue that his policies represent a continuation of the “Israel First” approach of previous administrations rather than the “America First” approach he promised.
The United States continues to provide billions in military aid to Israel annually, with Congress recently approving another $3.3 billion installment as part of the current ten-year, $38 billion Memorandum of Agreement. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, Israel is by far the biggest recipient of U.S. aid in history, having received some $300 billion since its founding.
“It not only siphons off aid from much needed renewal at home, but forces Washington to aid and abet another country’s foreign policy, which is increasingly counterproductive and contrary to our own politics and values,” argues The American Conservative. “The region is not safer, and moreover, it has not allowed for the United States to reduce its military footprint as guarantor of security there.”
Even some Republican lawmakers have begun to speak out against this arrangement. “Nothing can justify the number of civilian casualties (tens of thousands of women and children) inflicted by Israel in Gaza in the last two years. We should end all U.S. military aid to Israel now,” said Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) last year.

SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images
War with Iran looms on the horizon despite Trump’s campaign rhetoric about avoiding “dumb wars,” his administration appears to be moving toward another military confrontation in the Middle East, this time with Iran. The president has reportedly given Iranian authorities an ultimatum that includes not only ending their nuclear program but also stopping production of missiles that can reach Israel and ending support for groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis.
“Trump faces a clear choice: Launch another war for Israel or make peace for America,” argues The American Conservative. “His choice is a test case for commentators trying to make sense of this administration: Does Trump’s Iran policy serve America or a foreign nation?”
Critics point out that these demands are essentially impossible for Iran to accept. “What good is a missile deterrent if it has to be short of the range that can hit the country that’s threatening you?” asked antiwar commentator Scott Horton in an interview with The American Conservative. “And it’s just such an unreasonable demand on its face.”
Demographic Concerns Mount
Beyond specific policy disappointments, many conservatives are expressing alarm about ongoing demographic changes that they believe threaten the future of America as a majority-white, Christian nation.
New census projections confirm that the United States will become “minority white” in 2045, with whites comprising just 49.7 percent of the population compared to 24.6 percent for Hispanics, 13.1 percent for blacks, 7.9 percent for Asians, and 3.8 percent for multiracial populations.
The shift is already evident among younger Americans. “For youth under 18—the post-millennial population—minorities will outnumber whites in 2020,” notes a Brookings Institution analysis. “For those age 18-29—members of the younger labor force and voting age populations—the tipping point will occur in 2027.”
These demographic changes are not occurring evenly across the country. According to the latest Census Bureau data, nine states saw declines in their white populations: Alaska, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oregon, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Vermont.
“The major implication is the major change that is taking place in the U.S. population with respect to its race and ethnic structure,” Rogelio Saenz, a professor in the department of sociology and demography at the University of Texas in San Antonio, told Newsweek. “The Census Bureau has projected that in 2044 the nation would be majority minority, or more non-white than white in the in the population, and I think that that these patterns are well afoot. We’re getting closer to that reality.”
Economic Discontent Grows
Compounding these concerns is growing dissatisfaction with the state of the U.S. economy. Despite Trump’s promises to “supercharge” the economy and “make life more affordable for all Americans,” many working and middle-class families continue to struggle with stagnant wages, rising inflation, and an increasingly unaffordable housing market.
The housing market, in particular, has become a source of frustration for many Americans. Home prices have continued to rise faster than incomes, putting homeownership out of reach for an increasing number of families. At the same time, rental costs have skyrocketed in many markets, consuming an ever-larger portion of household incomes.
These economic pressures come at a time when many Americans are already feeling financially insecure due to the ongoing pandemic and its economic aftermath. Despite promises of a “V-shaped recovery,” many sectors of the economy continue to struggle, and millions of Americans remain unemployed or underemployed.
Trump’s Midterm Strategy Remains Unclear
Against this backdrop of policy disappointments and growing discontent, Trump’s approach to the midterm elections remains unclear. The president has reportedly amassed a war chest of more than $300 million through his main super PAC, MAGA Inc., but has not approved a spending plan for how those funds will be deployed.
“People who have spoken with Trump about these obstacles said he at times can sound detached and noncommittal about his plans for spending and endorsements,” reports The Washington Post. “One person close to the White House said some days the president seems not to care.”
This uncertainty has created particular problems in key Senate races. In Texas, for example, Trump has yet to endorse incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, creating a costly primary battle against state Attorney General Ken Paxton. National Republican strategists view Paxton as weaker in the general election, with one memo estimating that holding the seat with Paxton as the nominee would cost an additional $100 million.
“Texas cannot be taken for granted,” the memo warned, presenting internal polling that puts Cornyn ahead of Democratic candidates and Paxton behind them.
Similar situations are playing out in other states, including Georgia, where multiple Republican candidates are challenging Democrat Jon Ossoff, and Louisiana, where Trump has endorsed a challenger to incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy.
“Senate Republicans including [Senate Majority Leader John] Thune have been frustrated by Trump’s treatment of Senate incumbents,” reports The Washington Post. “Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina declined to run for reelection in the battleground state after feuding with Trump over Medicaid cuts in the president’s 2025 tax cuts and spending package.”
White House Promises Increased Engagement
White House officials insist that Trump is preparing to become more involved in the midterm campaign. “A White House official said Trump is excited to get more engaged in midterm strategy and looking forward to increasing his travel this month, including a campaign-style event outside of Washington this week,” according to The Washington Post.
The president’s political team, led by White House adviser James Blair, campaign strategist Chris LaCivita and pollster Tony Fabrizio, recently met in Palm Beach, Florida, to review research from every competitive race and develop estimates for what Republicans will have to spend to win. The team also briefed a retreat of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.
“An Oval Office meeting to go over a handful of House endorsements Wednesday night turned into a five-hour gabfest on the midterms, according to two people present,” reports The Washington Post. “Trump said he wants to defy the tendency of the president’s party losing seats in Congress in the midterms, one of the people said. ‘We’ll spend whatever it takes,’ the person recalled Trump saying. ‘Go get it done.’”
The White House has also encouraged Cabinet secretaries to minimize foreign trips
February 9, 2026
Australian Naval Base Emerges as Key U.S. Strategy in Potential China Conflict
Perth, Australia – In a strategic move that puts American interests front and center without the endless quagmires of past interventions, the Pentagon is gearing up to station up to four nuclear-powered submarines at HMAS Stirling, a naval base in Western Australia, starting as early as 2027. This deployment, part of the AUKUS security pact, serves as a smart “insurance policy” against potential Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific—ensuring U.S. trade routes stay open, supply chains remain secure, and American workers aren’t left holding the bag for Beijing’s bullying. It’s a classic America First play: leveraging allies to share the load, deter threats, and protect our economic edge without committing to another forever war.
The announcement, detailed in a recent Wall Street Journal report, highlights how Washington is repositioning its naval assets closer to flashpoints like Taiwan and the South China Sea. HMAS Stirling, located near Perth, is undergoing a massive $5.6 billion upgrade funded largely by Australia, including new maintenance facilities that will allow U.S. subs to operate more efficiently—reducing strain on American bases in Guam and Hawaii. By 2027, the base will host rotational deployments of Virginia-class attack submarines, with up to four U.S. boats and one from the U.K., under the banner of Submarine Rotational Force-West (SRF-West). This isn’t about basing them permanently—it’s rotational, keeping flexibility while building Australia’s skills for their own nuclear-powered fleet in the 2030s.
From an America First perspective, this is gold: It deters China without overextending U.S. forces. Beijing’s aggressive claims in the South China Sea threaten vital shipping lanes that carry trillions in American trade annually. By parking subs Down Under, we’re sending a clear message—back off—while letting allies like Australia pull their weight. No more freeloading on Uncle Sam’s dime; this pact ensures shared burdens for shared security. And unlike the neocon dreams of regime change, it’s focused on deterrence, not invasion—protecting American jobs in manufacturing and tech that rely on stable Pacific trade.
The move comes amid a broader realignment in Asia, where U.S. policies are reshaping alliances to counter China’s economic and military clout. Take President Trump’s recent tariff tweaks with India: On February 8, he slashed reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 18% and axed a 25% penalty on Indian goods, rewarding New Delhi for slashing Russian oil imports—a smart play to wean allies off adversarial energy sources while boosting U.S. exports. India’s electronics boom, fueled by schemes like Make in India and Productivity Linked Incentives, has catapulted it to the world’s second-largest mobile phone maker, with exports surging from $21.3 billion in 2014-15 to $127 billion in 2024-25. Yet, this growth hinges on Chinese components—39.7% of India’s electronic imports come from Beijing—highlighting the tangled web of dependencies Washington is working to untangle.
This tariff relief positions India to challenge Vietnam in the U.S. market, where Hanoi faces a 45% transshipment tariff to block Chinese rerouting. In 2024, Vietnam grabbed 4% of U.S. imports versus India’s 2.7%, but with electronics making up 17.6% of India’s U.S. exports—and now tariff-free—expect a shift that benefits American consumers and weakens China’s supply chain dominance. It’s America First economics: Reward friends who align with our interests, punish those who don’t.
Further south, political winds are shifting in Bangladesh, where February 12 elections follow the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina amid student uprisings. The interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus is cozying up to China and Pakistan, irked by India’s sheltering of Hasina despite extradition demands. This realignment could tip South Asia’s balance, with Beijing eyeing infrastructure deals to expand its Belt and Road footprint. For U.S. interests, it’s a reminder to back stable partners like India without getting bogged down in regional squabbles—focus on trade pacts that secure American access to markets, not endless diplomatic meddling.
Across the East China Sea, Japan’s snap election on February 9 saw Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s hawkish stance on China dominate headlines. Her November 2025 vow to defend Taiwan militarily if attacked drew Beijing’s ire—bans on Japanese seafood, tourism curbs, and threats to rare earth exports. Young voters like Aoi Nakamura rallied behind her: “Japan should maintain a firm stance without making any compromises.” A strong win for Takaichi would signal Tokyo’s resolve, aligning with U.S. efforts to fortify alliances against Chinese coercion. But America First means encouraging Japan to step up its own defense spending—now at 2% of GDP—rather than relying on U.S. troops as a crutch.
These threads weave into the AUKUS fabric: The submarine deal accelerates Australia’s nuclear sub program, with U.S. and U.K. rotations building expertise. Recent visits, like the USS Vermont in October 2025 and USS Minnesota in February 2025, test maintenance protocols at Stirling, paving the way for SRF-West. By 2032, Australia gets three Virginia-class subs, enhancing collective deterrence. Experts note this brings U.S. forces 4,000 miles closer to Taiwan than Pearl Harbor, cutting response times in a crisis.

The Virginia-class USS Minnesota docked at the HMAS Stirling base in Western Australia last year. (Colin Murty/Press Pool)
Critics worry about escalation, but proponents argue it’s preventive—deterring Beijing from adventurism that could disrupt global trade. With China flexing in the Taiwan Strait, this base ensures America can protect its interests from afar, without boots on the ground. As one Pentagon official put it, “It’s about presence, not provocation.”
In this era of great-power competition, Trump’s strategy—trade incentives for India, alliances like AUKUS, and firm lines with rivals—puts American workers, security, and prosperity first. No more nation-building; just smart power that keeps the peace and pays dividends at home.
For the full story on the submarine deployment, read The Wall Street Journal’s report here. Details on AUKUS from the Australian Submarine Agency. Coverage of India’s trade surge from Dow Jones. The New York Times on Japan’s election dynamics.
February 8, 2026
Weight-Loss Drug Price Wars Are Upending Big Pharma’s Business Model
The multibillion-dollar market for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, once a duopoly dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, is fracturing under intense pricing pressure, political intervention, and rising competition from compounded alternatives. What began as a revolutionary breakthrough in obesity treatment has evolved into a fierce price war that’s challenging the core business models of Big Pharma giants, raising questions about innovation, profitability, and access to life-changing medications.
Novo Nordisk, the Danish pioneer behind Ozempic and Wegovy, stunned investors this week by forecasting a 5% to 13% sales decline in 2026 – its first drop since 2017 – amid “unprecedented” U.S. price cuts and patent expirations in key markets like China and Brazil. The company’s shares plunged 17% on Wednesday, erasing nearly $50 billion in market value, as CEO Mike Doustdar acknowledged short-term “pain” from slashing prices to boost volumes and compete with Lilly’s surging Zepbound and Mounjaro.
In contrast, U.S. rival Eli Lilly delivered a bullish outlook, projecting 25% revenue growth to $80-83 billion in 2026, far exceeding Wall Street expectations. Lilly’s tirzepatide-based drugs raked in over $36 billion in 2025, outpacing Novo’s semaglutide portfolio and positioning Lilly as the clear leader in the GLP-1 race. “We’re seeing incredible demand, and our manufacturing investments are paying off,” Lilly CEO David Ricks told analysts, downplaying pricing headwinds as a temporary drag offset by volume gains.
As illustrated in the accompanying chart from LSEG Workspace, Novo’s revenues have boomed in double digits for years, driven by weight-loss drug sales, but the firm now anticipates a sharp reversal in 2026 due to these pressures.
The divergence highlights how pricing dynamics, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s “most favored nation” (MFN) policy and direct-to-consumer platforms like TrumpRx.gov, are reshaping the industry. Launched on February 5, TrumpRx connects Americans to discounted drugs from manufacturers like Novo, Lilly, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, offering prices as low as $149 for Wegovy’s starter dose – a fraction of the original $1,000 monthly list price. In exchange, companies received tariff relief and expedited approvals, but critics argue it sidesteps systemic issues, with limited impact for insured patients who may still pay less through coverage.

“TrumpRx could have some impact, but it’s far from revolutionary,” said Craig Garthwaite, director of health care at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. Experts like economist Öner Tulum warn that MFN relies on opaque global pricing, allowing companies to game the system by raising overseas prices or delaying launches.
Adding fuel to the fire, telehealth provider Hims & Hers Health launched a $49 compounded semaglutide pill on February 5 – just weeks after Novo’s Wegovy pill debut – prompting Novo to vow “legal and regulatory action” for alleged patent infringement and patient safety risks. Hims uses liposomal technology to aid absorption, bypassing Novo’s proprietary SNAC method acquired in a $1.8 billion deal. The FDA has warned against compounded GLP-1s, citing lack of safety evaluations, while the Department of Health and Human Services referred Hims to the Justice Department for investigation.
This isn’t the first clash: Novo previously partnered with Hims for Wegovy injections but ended ties acrimoniously last summer. Now, compounded knockoffs – estimated to serve 1.5 million Americans – threaten the duopoly’s pricing power. “This new offering could test how far compounders can skirt Big Pharma’s patents,” said Deb Autor, Hims’ chief policy officer.
The broader shift to cash-pay channels has made prices more sensitive, with injectables now starting at $149-$299 on company sites, down from $1,000. Analysts like Markus Manns at Union Investment fear a “no-win” price war: “There’s no assurance cuts will pay off.” Bernstein’s Courtney Breen noted Novo’s cuts are risky given its trailing position.
Lilly holds clinical edges – Zepbound achieves higher weight loss than Wegovy’s injection, while Novo’s pill edges Lilly’s upcoming orforglipron in trials. Lilly expects orforglipron approval in Q2 2026, potentially expanding the market further. “Pills could reshape GLP-1s like consumer products,” one analyst noted.
Yet the market is crowding: Pfizer and Amgen eye 2028 launches, while GSK focuses on obesity’s downstream effects like liver disease. Goldman Sachs raised Lilly’s target to $1,260, citing confidence in 25% growth despite pressures.
Critics argue Big Pharma’s model prioritizes shareholders over patients. Economist William Lazonick’s research shows U.S. pharma spent $747 billion on buybacks and dividends from 2012-2021, exceeding $660 billion on R&D. During the pandemic, 18 firms distributed $377.6 billion to shareholders – over 90% of profits – while claiming high prices fund innovation. “It’s a fallacy,” said UNAIDS’ Winnie Byanyima. “Profits go to Wall Street, not cures.”
A Senate HELP Committee report echoed this: In 2022, Bristol Myers Squibb spent $12.7 billion on buybacks, dividends, and exec pay versus $9.5 billion on R&D. Overall, 10 firms with drugs under Medicare negotiation spent $162 billion on shareholder handouts and marketing in 2023 – far outpacing $95.9 billion on R&D.
As shown in the second chart from LSEG, Novo’s market cap peaked in June 2024 before a sharp plunge, reflecting these pressures and Lilly’s ascent toward a trillion-dollar valuation.
What tames Big Pharma? Tulum suggests emulating the VA system’s deep discounts via centralized negotiation. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enabled Medicare negotiations for 10 drugs in 2026, including GLP-1s like Ozempic in 2027. Yet industry lobbies fiercely, with $83.2 million in trade dues funding opposition in 2023.
Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus Drugs offers transparent markups, but scalability is limited. Ultimately, reformers like Lazonick advocate banning buybacks and stock-based pay to redirect profits toward innovation.
As prices fall and competition rises, the GLP-1 war may force Big Pharma to adapt – or face a reckoning. For patients, lower costs could mean broader access, but sustained innovation requires reining in financialization.
February 7, 2026