The New York Budgets

Tag: Erika McEntarfer

  • President Trump’s vision involves a partisan economist leading the charge in managing the nation’s data

    President Trump’s vision involves a partisan economist leading the charge in managing the nation’s data

    Washington, D.C. – In a decisive step to restore accuracy and transparency to America’s economic reporting, President Donald Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, a sharp-eyed economist from the Heritage Foundation, to helm the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This follows Trump’s prompt removal of the previous commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, after a July jobs report riddled with downward revisions that critics argue inflated perceptions of weakness in an otherwise resilient economy. Antoni, a staunch advocate for data integrity and a vocal supporter of Trump’s pro-growth policies, is set to inject much-needed reform into an agency plagued by methodological flaws and declining survey response rates.

    The nomination has drawn predictable fire from liberal economists and media outlets, who decry Antoni’s conservative credentials as a threat to “nonpartisanship.” But from a right-leaning perspective, this is exactly the shake-up the BLS needs. For years, conservatives have highlighted inconsistencies in BLS data that seem to downplay economic strengths under Republican leadership while overstating them during Democratic administrations. Antoni’s track record of exposing these issues positions him as the ideal leader to rebuild trust—not through status quo preservation, but through bold improvements that align statistics with real-world realities.

    Profiling E.J. Antoni: A Conservative Crusader for Economic Truth

    E.J. Antoni, Ph.D., currently serves as Chief Economist and Richard Aster Fellow at The Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget. He holds master’s and doctoral degrees in economics from Northern Illinois University, with a focus on labor economics, money and banking, and fiscal policy. Before Heritage, Antoni was an economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation and is now a senior fellow at the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, co-founded by Trump advisor Stephen Moore.

    Antoni’s expertise shines in his frequent congressional testimonies on economic issues and his media appearances on outlets like Fox Business, where he dissects BLS reports with precision. He has critiqued BLS methodologies, pointing to post-pandemic drops in survey response rates that lead to unreliable preliminary estimates and massive revisions. In a recent Fox Business interview, Antoni suggested pausing monthly jobs reports until accuracy improves, favoring quarterly releases for better data quality—a proposal that, while controversial, addresses genuine flaws like the 258,000 downward revision in the July report.

    Trump praised Antoni on Truth Social as a “Highly Respected Economist” who will deliver “HONEST and ACCURATE” numbers, echoing Antoni’s pre-nomination commitment to “more accurate data, as timely as possible.” Antoni’s alignment with Trump’s narrative is clear: he has championed the economic booms from tax cuts and deregulation, while exposing Biden-era distortions like overstated job growth. Supporters like Stephen Moore call him a “very good statistician and a sound, solid economist” unlikely to face confirmation hurdles.

    On X, conservative voices rally: “Trump’s nominee for BLS commissioner… has demonstrated no commitment to truth,” quipped one critic, but right-leaning users counter, “Finally, someone to fix the rigged system.”

    Departing from the Establishment: Antoni Compared to Past Commissioners

    BLS commissioners have traditionally been academic insiders with extensive statistical backgrounds but often accused by conservatives of liberal biases. Erica Groshen (Obama-era) and Katharine Abraham (Clinton-era) exemplified this, with Ph.D.s from elite institutions and Fed ties, prioritizing survey methodologies over real-world applicability. Even Trump’s first-term pick, William Beach, emphasized “nonpartisanship,” but critics argue this led to unchecked flaws.

    Antoni breaks this mold: his Ph.D. is from a practical program, and his experience is in policy think tanks, not academia. Detractors like Jason Furman call him “completely unqualified” and an “extreme partisan,” while Joey Politano notes his five years post-Ph.D. and think-tank focus. Justin Wolfers labels him a “disastrously terrible” Trumper with “misrepresentations.” But this reeks of elitism—Antoni’s “lack of research record” ignores his real-world impact, like testifying on fiscal issues and critiquing BLS’s “phony baloney” health insurance data.

    From the right, Antoni represents a necessary outsider to challenge entrenched biases, much like Trump’s disruption of Washington norms.

    Market Ramifications: Short-Term Jitters, Long-Term Gains?

    The BLS’s data on unemployment, CPI, and productivity drives Fed decisions, corporate strategies, and investor moves. Trump’s firing of McEntarfer sparked initial market dips, with the Dow falling 0.5% amid fears of politicization. Bond yields edged up as uncertainty grew over inflation data reliability. Critics warn of eroded trust leading to volatility, but conservatives see opportunity: accurate reforms could reveal Trump’s economic strengths, boosting confidence.

    Historical parallels, like Argentina’s data manipulation, show risks, but Antoni’s push for transparency—more website info, methodology reviews—could stabilize markets. If revisions persist (e.g., post-COVID response drops), quarterly reports might prevent panics. Ultimately, a reformed BLS could highlight successes like low minority unemployment, encouraging investment in manufacturing amid tariffs.

    The Conservative Case: Antoni as America’s Data Watchdog

    In a time of institutional distrust, nominating a “partisan” like Antoni isn’t reckless—it’s restorative. The BLS has long been a liberal stronghold, producing data that justifies big-government narratives while ignoring issues like immigration’s wage effects. Antoni’s Heritage role and Project 2025 contributions ensure focus on working Americans, not elites.

    Criticisms from Furman and Wolfers? Partisan sniping from Obama alums. Even Beach’s caution reflects establishment fear of change. Antoni’s “chainsaw” quip to BLS inefficiencies is rhetoric for reform, not destruction. With Senate confirmation ahead, this is a win for truth over technocracy.

  • Trump has decided against selecting Scott Bessent to lead the Federal Reserve

    Trump has decided against selecting Scott Bessent to lead the Federal Reserve

    WASHINGTON, D.C. — In a move with deep implications for U.S. monetary policy and global financial markets, President Donald J. Trump announced on Tuesday that he has officially ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a contender for the next Federal Reserve chair, narrowing the shortlist to four candidates. Among the top names are Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and two other unnamed individuals—one widely believed to be current Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

    The decision coincides with the early resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, a Biden appointee, which Trump called a “pleasant surprise.” Kugler’s exit provides Trump an immediate opening to install a political and economic ally onto the Fed’s Board of Governors, an opportunity he appears eager to seize ahead of a critical rate decision by the central bank next month.

    Kugler announced she would step down by Friday, cutting her term short to return to academia at Georgetown University. Her departure gives Trump not only an opportunity to shape the near-term direction of Fed policy but also the chance to potentially elevate her short-term replacement into the top job at the Federal Reserve once Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026.

    In an interview with CNBC earlier Tuesday, Trump hinted at using the vacancy to install someone who could both serve the remainder of Kugler’s term and become Powell’s successor—effectively giving his pick months of influence over monetary policy before facing full Senate confirmation for the 14-year term.

    “A lot of people say, when you do that, why don’t you just pick the person who is going to head up the Fed?” Trump said. “That’s a possibility too.”

    The exclusion of Scott Bessent, the current Treasury Secretary and a prominent market figure, narrows Trump’s Fed chair options. Trump said Bessent preferred to remain at Treasury, removing himself from contention.

    Trump now appears focused on a smaller circle of candidates with strong ideological alignment and past affiliations with his administration. Kevin Hassett, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and consistent Fed critic, are now considered leading contenders.

    Economists see this narrowing as an attempt to cement Trump’s influence over the Fed and steer it toward a more dovish monetary stance—particularly as he continues to criticize Chair Powell for not cutting interest rates since Trump returned to office in January.

    Investors are already anticipating a rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17, especially after last week’s disappointing July jobs report. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut has surged to 90.4%, up dramatically from 63.3% just a week ago.

    The July nonfarm payroll report, released last Friday, showed only 73,000 jobs added, far below the 110,000 estimated by economists surveyed by LSEG. In addition, downward revisions of 258,000 jobs across May and June further confirmed a weakening labor market.

    While Powell has remained cautious, citing inflation still above the 2% target, market participants now view a rate cut as all but inevitable—especially with the political pressure intensifying from the White House.

    Trump’s dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer—reportedly over dissatisfaction with job numbers—has added fuel to concerns about politicization of U.S. data institutions. The firing, which came the same day as Kugler’s resignation, has drawn sharp criticism from economists and policy observers who warn of a deterioration in the credibility of official economic data.

    Michael Strain of the conservative American Enterprise Institute warned:

    “If you appoint somebody perceived to be a lackey as the Fed chair, take the BLS freakout and multiply it by 1,000.”

    Indeed, skepticism about Trump’s intentions has only grown with his pattern of clashing with Powell, his handpicked Fed chair during his first term, whom he later turned against for not being more aggressive on rate cuts.

    The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% through five meetings this year, despite growing evidence of a cooling economy. Inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose to 2.6% in June, with core PCE (excluding food and energy) increasing to 2.8%, casting doubts on how quickly the Fed could pivot to an easing stance.

    But the weak jobs data appears to have tipped the scales in favor of a September cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, reportedly among the top four Fed chair candidates, dissented in the July policy vote, arguing that the inflation risks from Trump’s tariffs were “modest,” and that rate cuts should begin sooner due to broader economic softening.

    By selecting Kugler’s interim replacement now—possibly someone who would later be nominated as chair—Trump gains a chance to “test-drive” his preferred monetary policy approach, influencing Fed decision-making in the run-up to the 2026 election cycle. However, any permanent appointment would require Senate confirmation, a process that could become contentious, especially if Democrats regain control of the chamber.

    James Fishback, CEO of Azoria investment firm and former advisor in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is reportedly among those who have expressed interest in a temporary Fed appointment. While the White House has not confirmed his candidacy, sources indicate materials were requested from Fishback earlier this week.

    With Trump once again reshaping America’s most influential economic institution, Wall Street and central bankers worldwide are watching closely. The combination of leadership reshuffling, data skepticism, and intensifying political pressure is turning the usually sober world of monetary policy into high-stakes drama.

    Whether the eventual nominee is Hassett, Warsh, Waller—or another surprise pick—Trump appears poised to install a Fed chair more aligned with his aggressive pro-growth, low-interest-rate vision. What that means for inflation, employment, and economic stability remains uncertain.

    But one thing is clear: the independence of the Federal Reserve—long seen as a cornerstone of U.S. economic credibility—is facing its most serious test in decades.