Category: Healthcare

  • Weight-Loss Drug Price Wars Are Upending Big Pharma’s Business Model

    Weight-Loss Drug Price Wars Are Upending Big Pharma’s Business Model

    The multibillion-dollar market for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, once a duopoly dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, is fracturing under intense pricing pressure, political intervention, and rising competition from compounded alternatives. What began as a revolutionary breakthrough in obesity treatment has evolved into a fierce price war that’s challenging the core business models of Big Pharma giants, raising questions about innovation, profitability, and access to life-changing medications.

    Novo Nordisk, the Danish pioneer behind Ozempic and Wegovy, stunned investors this week by forecasting a 5% to 13% sales decline in 2026 – its first drop since 2017 – amid “unprecedented” U.S. price cuts and patent expirations in key markets like China and Brazil. The company’s shares plunged 17% on Wednesday, erasing nearly $50 billion in market value, as CEO Mike Doustdar acknowledged short-term “pain” from slashing prices to boost volumes and compete with Lilly’s surging Zepbound and Mounjaro.

    In contrast, U.S. rival Eli Lilly delivered a bullish outlook, projecting 25% revenue growth to $80-83 billion in 2026, far exceeding Wall Street expectations. Lilly’s tirzepatide-based drugs raked in over $36 billion in 2025, outpacing Novo’s semaglutide portfolio and positioning Lilly as the clear leader in the GLP-1 race. “We’re seeing incredible demand, and our manufacturing investments are paying off,” Lilly CEO David Ricks told analysts, downplaying pricing headwinds as a temporary drag offset by volume gains.

    As illustrated in the accompanying chart from LSEG Workspace, Novo’s revenues have boomed in double digits for years, driven by weight-loss drug sales, but the firm now anticipates a sharp reversal in 2026 due to these pressures.

    The divergence highlights how pricing dynamics, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s “most favored nation” (MFN) policy and direct-to-consumer platforms like TrumpRx.gov, are reshaping the industry. Launched on February 5, TrumpRx connects Americans to discounted drugs from manufacturers like Novo, Lilly, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, offering prices as low as $149 for Wegovy’s starter dose – a fraction of the original $1,000 monthly list price. In exchange, companies received tariff relief and expedited approvals, but critics argue it sidesteps systemic issues, with limited impact for insured patients who may still pay less through coverage.

    “TrumpRx could have some impact, but it’s far from revolutionary,” said Craig Garthwaite, director of health care at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. Experts like economist Öner Tulum warn that MFN relies on opaque global pricing, allowing companies to game the system by raising overseas prices or delaying launches.

    Adding fuel to the fire, telehealth provider Hims & Hers Health launched a $49 compounded semaglutide pill on February 5 – just weeks after Novo’s Wegovy pill debut – prompting Novo to vow “legal and regulatory action” for alleged patent infringement and patient safety risks. Hims uses liposomal technology to aid absorption, bypassing Novo’s proprietary SNAC method acquired in a $1.8 billion deal. The FDA has warned against compounded GLP-1s, citing lack of safety evaluations, while the Department of Health and Human Services referred Hims to the Justice Department for investigation.

    This isn’t the first clash: Novo previously partnered with Hims for Wegovy injections but ended ties acrimoniously last summer. Now, compounded knockoffs – estimated to serve 1.5 million Americans – threaten the duopoly’s pricing power. “This new offering could test how far compounders can skirt Big Pharma’s patents,” said Deb Autor, Hims’ chief policy officer.

    The broader shift to cash-pay channels has made prices more sensitive, with injectables now starting at $149-$299 on company sites, down from $1,000. Analysts like Markus Manns at Union Investment fear a “no-win” price war: “There’s no assurance cuts will pay off.” Bernstein’s Courtney Breen noted Novo’s cuts are risky given its trailing position.

    Lilly holds clinical edges – Zepbound achieves higher weight loss than Wegovy’s injection, while Novo’s pill edges Lilly’s upcoming orforglipron in trials. Lilly expects orforglipron approval in Q2 2026, potentially expanding the market further. “Pills could reshape GLP-1s like consumer products,” one analyst noted.

    Yet the market is crowding: Pfizer and Amgen eye 2028 launches, while GSK focuses on obesity’s downstream effects like liver disease. Goldman Sachs raised Lilly’s target to $1,260, citing confidence in 25% growth despite pressures.

    Critics argue Big Pharma’s model prioritizes shareholders over patients. Economist William Lazonick’s research shows U.S. pharma spent $747 billion on buybacks and dividends from 2012-2021, exceeding $660 billion on R&D. During the pandemic, 18 firms distributed $377.6 billion to shareholders – over 90% of profits – while claiming high prices fund innovation. “It’s a fallacy,” said UNAIDS’ Winnie Byanyima. “Profits go to Wall Street, not cures.”

    A Senate HELP Committee report echoed this: In 2022, Bristol Myers Squibb spent $12.7 billion on buybacks, dividends, and exec pay versus $9.5 billion on R&D. Overall, 10 firms with drugs under Medicare negotiation spent $162 billion on shareholder handouts and marketing in 2023 – far outpacing $95.9 billion on R&D.

    As shown in the second chart from LSEG, Novo’s market cap peaked in June 2024 before a sharp plunge, reflecting these pressures and Lilly’s ascent toward a trillion-dollar valuation.

    What tames Big Pharma? Tulum suggests emulating the VA system’s deep discounts via centralized negotiation. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enabled Medicare negotiations for 10 drugs in 2026, including GLP-1s like Ozempic in 2027. Yet industry lobbies fiercely, with $83.2 million in trade dues funding opposition in 2023.

    Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus Drugs offers transparent markups, but scalability is limited. Ultimately, reformers like Lazonick advocate banning buybacks and stock-based pay to redirect profits toward innovation.

    As prices fall and competition rises, the GLP-1 war may force Big Pharma to adapt – or face a reckoning. For patients, lower costs could mean broader access, but sustained innovation requires reining in financialization.

  • UnitedHealth Turns to Trump Allies Amid Washington Challenges

    UnitedHealth Turns to Trump Allies Amid Washington Challenges






    Stock Widget


    In the high-stakes world of American healthcare, where billions of dollars in federal funds hang in the balance, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH -2.45% ▼ is pulling out all the stops to navigate a storm of regulatory scrutiny and policy shifts under the Trump administration. The nation’s largest health insurer, grappling with criminal investigations into its lucrative Medicare Advantage business and looming threats to its billing practices, has turned to a time-tested Washington strategy: leveraging connections to former President Donald Trump’s inner circle. From high-level meetings with Justice Department officials to dinners with Medicare overseers and a surge in lobbying expenditures, UnitedHealth is working overtime to plead its case directly with the powers that be.



    This aggressive outreach comes at a pivotal moment for the Minnetonka, Minnesota-based giant. UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage segment, which generated over $100 billion in revenue in 2023 according to Medicare data, has long been the crown jewel of its operations. These private plans, which manage federal benefits for seniors and disabled individuals, have been a boon for insurers, offering higher reimbursements than traditional fee-for-service Medicare. But recent changes to federal payment rules under the Biden administration, coupled with ongoing probes, have eroded profitability and wiped out nearly 40% of the company’s market value since April.

    The company’s troubles intensified in May when The Wall Street Journal first reported that the Justice Department’s criminal fraud unit had launched an investigation into UnitedHealth’s Medicare practices. Shortly thereafter, UnitedHealth secured an unusual meeting with senior Justice Department officials, including Chad Mizelle, the attorney general’s chief of staff. According to people familiar with the meeting, the discussion touched on the probes targeting the company—a move that former prosecutors described as atypical for a firm in the early stages of a criminal inquiry.

    “You don’t typically see companies under investigation getting face time with top brass like that,” said Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan and a legal analyst who has followed similar cases. “The goal in investigations is to maintain independence and avoid any perception of favoritism or leaks. This kind of access raises eyebrows.”

    UnitedHealth’s CEO, Stephen Hemsley, who returned to the role in May after serving as chairman and previously as CEO, has been at the forefront of these efforts. Hemsley, a veteran of the company since the 1990s, recently met with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles to discuss Medicare policy and other healthcare issues, though government investigations were not on the agenda, according to a White House official. Earlier in the summer, Hemsley dined with Chris Klomp, the official overseeing Medicare at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), where they delved into topics like Medicare-plan billing policies and the supplemental benefits offered through private plans, sources familiar with the matter said.

    These engagements underscore a broader playbook in Washington: direct access to decision-makers. UnitedHealth has also sought meetings with President Trump himself, though it has not yet secured one, according to people close to the discussions. The company is particularly focused on resolving the ongoing investigations, which include not only the criminal probe but also civil and antitrust inquiries.

    The backdrop to these maneuvers is a company in recovery mode. UnitedHealth’s stock has shown some tentative signs of stabilization since Hemsley’s return, but the Washington overhang persists. The insurer was already reeling from the tragic public murder of Brian Thompson, CEO of its UnitedHealthcare insurance unit, in December 2024—an event that shocked the industry and added to operational disruptions. Amid this, Hemsley has outlined a recovery plan emphasizing cost controls, operational efficiencies, and advocacy in policy circles.

    Financially, the hits have been hard. Changes to Medicare billing rules implemented by the Biden administration began impacting results in earnest this year, squeezing margins in the Medicare Advantage business. Investors are now laser-focused on how the Trump administration will handle these practices. Mehmet Oz, Trump’s nominee for CMS administrator and a high-profile television personality turned public health advocate, has vowed a crackdown on certain insurer tactics, including those employed by UnitedHealth. “We’re going to root out waste, fraud, and abuse in Medicare,” Oz said during his confirmation hearings earlier this year, signaling potential further reimbursement cuts or stricter oversight.

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    White House chief of staff Susie Wiles© Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

    To counter these threats, UnitedHealth has ramped up its Washington presence dramatically. In the first half of 2025, the company spent $7.7 million on lobbying—roughly double the amount from the same period in 2024, according to its own disclosure filings with the Senate. This surge outpaced rivals: Humana Inc. and Cigna Group saw only modest increases in their lobbying budgets during the same timeframe.

    A key part of this strategy involves hiring influencers with deep Trump ties. UnitedHealth brought on Brian Ballard, a prominent fundraiser for the president and founder of Ballard Partners, as its top outside lobbyist. Ballard’s firm, which started representing UnitedHealth in 2024, has become the company’s highest-paid external advocacy group, per disclosure records. Ballard, known for his access to the White House and Capitol Hill, has been instrumental in facilitating connections.

    The company also enlisted Jesse Panuccio, a former senior Justice Department official from Trump’s first term who now partners at Boies Schiller Flexner LLP. Panuccio played a role in arranging the meeting with Justice Department officials, including Mizelle, sources said. Additionally, in a shareholder lawsuit filed against the company, UnitedHealth in July replaced its legal team from WilmerHale—a firm criticized by Trump—with Robert Giuffra, the president’s personal lawyer and a securities litigator at Sullivan & Cromwell, along with his colleagues.

    This shift in legal representation highlights the personalized nature of influence-peddling in the Trump era. “Lobbying spending often ticks up year over year, but 2025 is on track to shatter records,” said Anna Massoglia, a researcher at OpenSecrets.org, a nonpartisan group that tracks money in politics. “With the administration’s inner circle so accessible, companies are going all-in on direct relationships. It’s more nuanced now—you can court the president, his family, and allies outright.”

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    Jesse Panuccio, who was a senior Justice Department official in President Trump’s first term.© Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    UnitedHealth’s disclosures paint a picture of an all-hands-on-deck approach. The company has increased its roster of lobbyists and lawyers with Trump-era credentials, aiming to shape policies on Medicare payments, supplemental benefits, and regulatory relief. In a statement to reporters, UnitedHealth emphasized its proactive stance: “Public policy shapes healthcare across America, and it’s our responsibility to engage with the administration and Congress at all levels to improve patient access and affordability,” a spokesman said. “This is especially true now as critical decisions are being made.” The spokesman added that lobbying expenditures fluctuate annually based on needs.

    Executives have been candid with Wall Street about these efforts. In a recent earnings call, Hemsley told analysts that the company has been “engaged and collaborative with the administration,” providing management with “a seat at the table,” according to notes from a Morgan Stanley investor briefing last week. This engagement yielded a tangible win in August, when the Justice Department cleared UnitedHealth’s long-stalled $3.3 billion acquisition of home-health provider Amedisys Inc. after the company agreed to divestitures. The deal, first announced in 2023, had been bogged down in antitrust reviews.

    The White House has downplayed any special treatment. “The Administration routinely meets with insurers to deliver on the President’s mandate of improving healthcare and lowering costs for everyday Americans,” said Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, in response to inquiries about UnitedHealth’s outreach.

    Yet, the investigations remain a thorn in UnitedHealth’s side. When the Journal broke the story of the criminal probe in May, the company initially stated it had not been formally notified and robustly defended its Medicare Advantage integrity. “We have full confidence in our practices,” a spokesman said at the time. But by July 24, in a securities filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, UnitedHealth disclosed that it had proactively reached out to the Justice Department and was complying with formal criminal and civil requests. The filing reiterated the company’s commitment to cooperation.

    The probe, led by the Justice Department’s criminal fraud unit, is examining potential overbilling and other practices in Medicare Advantage, sources familiar with the matter confirmed. It remains active, with no resolution in sight. Civil investigations by the Department of Health and Human Services and antitrust scrutiny of mergers add layers of complexity.

    Former Justice officials like McQuade stress the rarity of such high-level interventions. “You don’t want to give anyone a heads-up,” she said, referring to the risks of discussing active cases. Panuccio, who helped orchestrate the meeting, did not respond to requests for comment.

    For UnitedHealth, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Medicare Advantage accounts for a significant portion of its $371 billion in total 2024 revenue, and any adverse policy changes could derail its growth trajectory. The company serves about 8 million enrollees in these plans, making it the market leader with a roughly 30% share. Rivals like Humana, which derives even more of its business from Medicare Advantage, are watching closely, though their lobbying increases have been more measured.

    Broader industry dynamics are at play. The Trump administration has promised to overhaul healthcare, with Oz’s CMS nomination signaling a focus on efficiency and fraud reduction. Insurers fear this could mean clawbacks on prior payments or caps on supplemental benefits like dental and vision coverage, which have driven enrollment surges. Enrollment in Medicare Advantage plans hit 33 million in 2025, up from 29 million the prior year, per CMS data.

    UnitedHealth’s pivot to Trump allies reflects a sea change in corporate advocacy. In Trump’s first term, industries from tech to energy hired former administration officials to navigate deregulation. Now, with a second term underway, the trend is accelerating. “Companies are figuring out how to win over the new guard,” Massoglia said. “It’s not just about money—it’s about relationships.”

    As UnitedHealth pushes forward, the outcomes of these efforts will shape not only its fortunes but the future of privatized Medicare. For now, Hemsley and his team are betting on personal diplomacy to turn the tide. Whether it pays off remains to be seen, but in Washington, access is everything.