Gabby Jones for The New York Times
Bitcoin just suffered its largest weekly decline in more than three years. But the worst part for some of crypto’s permabulls is that they aren’t sure what exactly caused the crash.
The selloff left many of the market’s luminaries—those so well-known that they go simply as “Pomp” and “Novo” and “Mooch”—searching for answers.
“Bitcoin is crashing and investors are freaking out,” Anthony Pompliano, a crypto evangelist and investor, wrote Friday.
Bitcoin fell 16% to $70,008 this past week, down a sharp 45% from its all-time high of $126,273 in October. Ether dropped 24% to $2,052, off 59% from its own high of last year. Both tokens staged furious rallies Friday, but the week remained a historically bad one for crypto. And few seem to know what went wrong.
Market theories for the selloff ranged from investors’ pivot toward the prediction markets and other risky bets, to widespread profit-taking after a blistering bull run.
“There was no smoking gun,” said Michael Novogratz, who runs Galaxy Digital, a crypto merchant-banking and trading firm.
For much of last year, crypto was in ascendance. President Trump’s return to the White House ushered in a new era for digital assets, which continued to gain acceptance among individual investors and legitimacy on Wall Street. As bitcoin and other popular tokens touched record highs, it seemed as though the market’s best days always lay ahead.
“I really didn’t think that we’d see a six at the beginning of the bitcoin price ever again,” said Cory Klippsten, chief executive officer of the bitcoin financial services firm Swan Bitcoin.
And yet, for a 24-hour stretch that ended Friday afternoon, bitcoin was back at that level. Past crypto selloffs had clearer explanations, which made this one more mystifying.
In 2018, bitcoin fell 80% from its peak after the initial coin offering bubble burst, ending an era in which thousands of unproven startups raised billions of dollars with little more than a sales pitch. In 2022, the $40 billion collapse of TerraUSD and Luna coins triggered a cascade of company failures across the crypto sector that culminated in the implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange.
This time, there is no clear consensus. “If you ask five experts, you’ll get five explanations,” said Anthony Scaramucci, who served for 11 days as communications director during Trump’s first term and is among the best-known crypto bulls at his firm, SkyBridge Capital.
Here are some of the most popular explanations:
There is no shortage of other markets for traders to make audacious bets, said Pompliano, the CEO of ProCap Financial. Prediction markets, gold, silver, artificial intelligence and so-called meme stocks are all vying for their attention of late, drawing eyes away from crypto.
“It used to be that bitcoin was the consensus view where asymmetry existed,” Pompliano said. “Now you have AI, prediction markets…many other areas where people can go and they can speculate.”
Wall Street has sought to capitalize on crypto’s popularity by launching a growing array of exchange-traded funds and derivatives linked to bitcoin and other popular tokens. Their proliferation might not affect the sheer number of bitcoins, ethers and other tokens, but some investors thought their arrival has dented bitcoin’s appeal as a scarce asset.
Bitcoin’s main appeal has always been its limited supply of 21 million coins. By launching ETFs and complex derivatives, Wall Street has enabled investors to bet on the price of bitcoin without needing to buy or hold the actual coins, some analysts said.
Other investors suspected that Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, might be bringing down crypto prices.
Warsh, they said, is seen as more hawkish on interest rates as a tool to tame inflation, and more supportive of a stronger U.S. dollar. Higher rates and a stronger dollar are conditions that typically hurt some alternative assets, such as gold and crypto, making them less attractive to investors. And this past week, the WSJ Dollar Index edged up 0.4%.
Still, Warsh and the Fed are expected to cut rates this year, not raise them. And Warsh has warmed to bitcoin. He famously dubbed the digital currency a “policeman for policy,” saying in a TV interview that bitcoin’s price can inform policymakers when they are doing things right and wrong.
After Trump signed into law the Genius Act last year, paving the path for stablecoins—digital assets pegged to fiat currencies like the dollar—the industry turned its attention to the next important piece of legislation: the Clarity Act. This bill would create a clear regulatory framework for the burgeoning industry.
Congress appeared on the cusp of moving the bill ahead when a dispute between crypto exchanges and traditional banks stalled that momentum. Without this measure, many financial firms are hesitant to integrate digital assets into their offerings. And unless a compromise is reached, the dust-up might deny the crypto market a catalyst that could have extended the rally.
Novogratz and some other investors thought much of the selloff was driven by investors eager to lock in gains they collected when bitcoin, ether and other digital tokens rallied in the midst of the “euphoria” of Trump’s election in 2024 and pledge to make the U.S. the world’s crypto capital.
And those gains were indeed spectacular. Bitcoin, for one, rocketed around 80% from Election Day until early October of last year.
Sharp selloffs are hardly unusual in crypto, of course. They are so regular, in fact, that investors give them a name—crypto winter—that befits the belief that these downturns are as predictable as the seasons.
Some analysts believe this crypto winter could thaw faster than those of the past. No key companies have collapsed or faced allegations, revelations that have elicited crises of confidence in past crashes.
For believers, Friday’s rally served as reassurance that cryptocurrencies have always bounced back, part of why they stick with these investments.
“The infrastructure is stronger, stablecoin adoption continues to grow and institutional interest hasn’t evaporated, it’s just sidelined,” said Jasper De Maere, a strategist at the crypto trading firm Wintermute. Interest in these investments “can return quickly,” he said.
Many of crypto’s true believers are willing to wait.
On a Thursday afternoon conference call, Strategy founder Michael Saylor sought to reassure investors that bitcoin was coming back.
Moments earlier, his company, which stockpiles bitcoin, had reported a $12 billion quarterly loss related to the token’s late-2025 swoon. Saylor told his investors the only way to handle the downturn is to hold on—and tune out the market’s volatility.
“Your time horizon needs to be, minimal, four years,” Saylor said.
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